辽宁沿海地区海洋经济增长质量空间特征及影响要素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.07.012

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the new normal background, marine economy in China should develop with higher quality and effectiveness. Based on the framework of "knowldege/understanding-evaluation-construction-optimization", this study defined the connotation of marine economic growth quality and used a center-gravity model to analyze the spatial structure of marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas from 2000 to 2014. A spatial econometric model was used to examine the spatial effects and influencing mechanisms for marine economic growth. Recommendations for path control were proposed according to the extent of factor effects. The study found that: 1) Marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas exhibits a "core-circles" structure, forming a goose-straddle pattern with Dalian as the leading goose. A diamond-shaped gravitational flow promotes the concentrated development for the area. 2) There is a significant spatial agglomeration effect in the gravitational flow of marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas. The results of the spatial Durbin model show that the elements of marine capital, marine infrastructure, and marine industrial structure have become downstream mechanisms that promote marine economic growth quality in the area, and marine industrial structure is the main flow for marine economic growth quality, which has obvious influence in spatial agglomeration. However, marine talents have become a constraint flow on marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas, which restricts the flow of relevant elements. 3) Through the division of path effects, we proposed to strengthen the role of Dalian as the central area, formulate control measures for cities in the hinterland based on their roles and resource endowments in the regional system, and promote the process of coordination and integration in Liaoning coastal areas.

Key words: marine economic growth quality, center-gravity model, spatial agglomeration effect, spatial Durbin model, Liaoning coastal areas

Bo LI, Chuang TIAN, Zhaoyuan SHI, Zenglin HAN. Spatial characteristics and influencing factors of marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(7): 1080-1092.

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目标层	一级指标	二级指标	指标解释	权重
海洋经济增长质量	海洋综合实力	海洋生产总值(+)	反映海洋经济增长总量	0.057
		港口货物吞吐量(+)	反映港口经济对海洋经济增长的贡献	0.061
		海岸线经济密度(+)	反映海洋经济增长的潜力	0.057
		人均外资额(+)	反映海洋经济对外开放程度	0.061
		市外支持力度(+)	反映涉海政策对地区海洋经济质量化转变的影响	0.070
		沿海地区市场组织结构指数(+)	反映沿海地区市场发展水平的影响	0.058
		沿海地区财政自给率(+)	反映政府为推动海洋经济发展的财政支持	0.059
	海洋产业结构	非渔海洋产业系统结构转换率(+)	反映沿海城市海洋产业结构优化速度	0.056
		海洋产业区位熵(+)	反应海洋产业结构变化对海洋经济增长的贡献度	0.057
		沿海地区产业结构高级化系数(+)	反映沿海地区产业结构高级化程度	0.058
	海洋社会福利	海洋教育投入(+)	反映海洋经济增长带来的教育福利	0.061
		沿海城镇居民可支配收入(+)	反映海洋经济增长带来的收入福利	0.058
		沿海地区医院卫生院床位数(+)	反映海洋经济增长带来的医疗福利	0.058
		海洋科技投入(+)	反映海洋经济发展带来的科研福利	0.055
	海洋生态环境	海洋自然保护区个数(+)	反映海洋经济增长中环境保护力度	0.057
		工业废水排放量(-)	反映海洋经济增长的海水污染代价	0.063

城市	2000年	2001年	2002年	2003年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年
大连	0.57	0.55	0.54	0.54	0.49	0.56	0.54	0.54	0.54	0.50	0.55	0.59	0.58	0.61	0.67
丹东	0.28	0.29	0.27	0.29	0.27	0.25	0.28	0.25	0.28	0.31	0.36	0.36	0.39	0.37	0.42
锦州	0.19	0.19	0.16	0.22	0.19	0.18	0.25	0.24	0.23	0.29	0.29	0.30	0.31	0.30	0.41
营口	0.28	0.22	0.23	0.21	0.19	0.21	0.24	0.25	0.27	0.34	0.36	0.38	0.39	0.41	0.41
盘锦	0.15	0.20	0.18	0.17	0.18	0.17	0.21	0.24	0.22	0.26	0.28	0.31	0.35	0.35	0.35
葫芦岛	0.23	0.24	0.19	0.21	0.21	0.22	0.24	0.28	0.28	0.33	0.31	0.36	0.38	0.40	0.42

年份	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值	年份	Moran's I	Z值
2000	-0.373^**	-2.284	2005	-0.335^*	-1.791	2010	-0.370^**	-2.224
2001	-0.332^**	-1.754	2006	-0.320	-1.596	2011	-0.375^**	-2.301
2002	-0.345^*	-1.914	2007	-0.304	-1.394	2012	-0.376^**	-2.326
2003	-0.346^*	-1.921	2008	-0.336^*	-1.809	2013	-0.377^**	-2.334
2004	-0.346^*	-1.937	2009	-0.350^**	-1.981	2014	-0.330^*	-1.720

变量	地理距离		经济距离		滞后变量	地理距离		经济距离
变量	系数	t值	系数	t值	滞后变量	系数	t值	系数	t值
K	0.00004	0.5912	0.00071^***	5.7646	K_W	-0.00096^***	-3.8036	0.00097^**	2.1782
C	0.99819^***	10.2412	0.17063	1.2774	C_W	2.35725^***	8.1166	-0.56879	-0.8852
I	14.9538^***	4.6702	27.22808^***	6.6516	I_W	-25.8653^***	-7.8317	-33.77548^***	-4.9157
H	-0.08186	-0.0736	-3.51851^**	-2.2784	H_W	3.05475	1.3834	2.97268	0.8211
E	0.12568^*	1.7020	0.25693^**	2.4591	E_W	0.29718^***	2.8399	0.17332	1.2999
T	-0.00002	-0.4313	0.000003	0.0549	T_W	0.00013	1.4922	0.00005	0.2635
O	0.00058	0.2460	-0.00544^*	-1.6626	O_W	0.00921	1.4047	0.00412	0.4892
Wdep.var.*	-0.40398^***	-2.9870	-0.37100^*	-1.9329	R²	0.9837		0.9650

变量	地理距离					经济距离
	直接效应		间接效应			直接效应		间接效应
	系数	t值	系数	t值	系数		t值	系数	t值
K	0.00011^*	2.2838	-0.00076^***	-3.9438		0.0007^***	7.0694	0.0006	1.9078
C	0.84759^***	10.8039	1.53969^***	6.9174		0.2148^*	2.0017	-0.5128	-1.0421
I	17.53754^**	5.3009	-25.26338^***	-7.5331		30.1974^***	7.6438	-34.8973^***	-5.8701
H	-0.38445	-0.3289	2.41482	1.3139		-3.8188^*	-2.3471	3.4975	1.1887
E	0.11020	1.3639	0.19308^*	2.0960		0.2468^*	2.2696	0.0647	0.5431
T	-0.00003	-0.6509	0.00010	1.5534		0.000001	0.0149	0.00004	0.2550
O	-0.00011	-0.0453	0.00685	1.2914		-0.0057	-1.7468	0.0049	0.7002

Spatial characteristics and influencing factors of marine economic growth quality in Liaoning coastal areas

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