“一带一路”若干区域社会发展态势大数据分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.07.006

Abstract

Abstract:

The Belt and Road initiative has become China's basic international policy. Keeping abreast of the social development trend of countries along the Belt and Road is crucial to ensuring the steady progress and successful implementation of the initiative. To this end, this study used the Global Data on Events, Location and Tone (GDELT) as a data source to obtain the full-text English news data in 25 countries along the Belt and Road in the past five years, and analyzed the social development trends of various countries by introducing topic models and combining an unsupervised method—the latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and a supervised method—labeled latent Dirichlet allocation (Labeled LDA) to mine the topics contained in the news data, and construct a social stability model. The study found that: 1) The social development trend of the countries along the Belt and Road is uneven, and the countries can be divided into four categories: Stable, such as Oman, Vietnam; Relatively stable, such as Uzbekistan, Iran; Moderate risk, such as Kuwait, Jordan, Pakistan, Myanmar; High risk, such as Syria, Afghanistan. 2) Through the spatiotemporal mining of news topics, hot spots can be effectively identified. For example, this study found that Andijon has an important influence on the social development and stability of Central Asia. 3) The supervised topic model could reveal Uzbekistan's economic and industrial structure, identify major social events, and discover its social security risks and trend. This method can effectively explore the spatiotemporal changes of news events, discover potential risks of countries, support real-time dynamic monitoring of the social development trends of countries along the Belt and Road, and provide auxiliary decision support for the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative, and thus has important application value.

Key words: the Belt and Road Initiative, spatiotemporal data mining, theme modal, social situation, social stability, big data

Mingqing MA, Wu YUAN, Quansheng GE, Wen YUAN, Linsheng YANG, Hanqing LI, Meng LI. Big data analysis of social development situation in regions along the Belt and Road[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(7): 1009-1020.

Figures/Tables 13

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Statistics of news topic frequency in countries along the Belt and Road"

国家	主题频率/%																			总数
国家	经济活动	政治外交	能源活动	宗教活动	海军活动	军事活动	军事冲突	种族冲突	恐怖袭击	核制裁	治安问题	教育活动	难民活动	医疗健康	航空活动	旅游业	毒品活动	人权侵犯	航天活动	总数
阿富汗	0.5	2.0	-	1.0	-	0.9	75.4	-	15.3	-	-	-	4.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	524935
巴基斯坦	15.3	9.0	2.8	-	-	3.8	-	-	55.1	-	11.1	2.6	-	0.3	-	-	-	-	-	1186574
伊朗	18.1	22.0	16.5	-	5.3	8.8	-	-	9.1	20.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	693298
阿联酋	62.6	6.5	14.3	-	-	-	2.7	-	-	-	2.0	5.4	-	-	6.5	-	-	-	-	171177
卡塔尔	38.2	8.9	13.4	-	-	34	-	-	-	-	-	0.5	-	-	5.0	-	-	-	-	139151
叙利亚	-	7.2	-	10.0	-	-	50.9	-	4.4	-	-	-	27.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	1168732
沙特	21.6	26.2	13.9	10.0	-	17.7	-	-	10.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	438969
阿曼	85.5	-	4.0	-	-	3.7	-	-	-	-	0.5	-	-	-	-	6.3	-	-	-	50571
也门	1.8	26.3	-	-	-	-	53.8	-	10.8	-	-	-	5.1	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	162086
伊拉克	0.5	2.3	9.6	6.1	-	-	50.4	-	24.8	-	-	-	6.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	508338
科威特	28.8	1.0	15.6	0.5	-	9	-	-	23.5	-	17.6	0.8	-	-	-	3.2	-	-	-	75319
约旦	20.3	6.9	0.8	12.6	-	21.6	-	-	11.4	-	-	3.7	22.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	124865
印度尼西亚	37.1	5.8	18.1	11.8	-	-	-	-	9.3	-	17.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	350920
老挝	36.3	31.3	-	-	-	8.6	-	-	-	-	14.6	0.9	-	-	-	4.0	4.3	-	-	29458
马来西亚	56.5	24.3	0.8	6.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	7.7	3.7	-	-	-	0.4	-	-	-	453574
泰国	37.3	19.8	-	-	-	10.5	-	-	-	-	2.0	-	4	-	-	22.9	3.5	-	-	257293
缅甸	9.9	11.3	-	-	-	14.1	-	39.6	-	-	-	1.9	23.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	79334
菲律宾	34.9	14.1	-	17.9	-	-	-	-	12.8	-	20.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	179572
越南	73.3	-	-	-	-	4.3	-	-	-	-	2.7	9.4	-	-	3.8	6.5	-	-	-	439741
柬埔寨	49.9	2.5	-	-	-	2.6	-	-	-	-	8.1	11.0	9.7	-	-	16.2	-	-	-	181195
哈萨克斯坦	36.2	21.4	20.2	-	-	12.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	9.7	60362
吉尔吉斯斯坦	31.8	32.7	12.6	-	-	11.6	11.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	22472
乌兹别克斯坦	17.0	40.8	3.3	8.0	-	13.8	-	-	12	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	4.1	-	12574
塔吉克斯坦	27.3	22.4	1.7	19.5	-	14.4	-	-	14.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	16438
土库曼斯坦	18.4	7.9	29.6	9.1	-	24.8	-	-	-	-	1.2	-	9.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	18399

Tab.3

Fig.1

Tab.4

Tab.5

Tab.6

Fig.2

Tab.7

Fig.3

Fig.4

Fig.5

Tab.8

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事件类型
make public statement	appeal	express intent to cooperate	consult	engage in diplomatic cooperation
engage in material cooperation	provide aid	yield	investigate	demand
disapprove	reject	threaten	protest	exhibit force posture
reduce relations	coerce	assault	fight	use unconventional mass violence

事件	主题词
事件	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
经济活动	market	company	budget	government	trade	police	economy	security	cash	growth
政治外交	government	election	policy	diplomat	force	national	senate	business	presidential	cooperation
能源活动	oil	company	economy	gas	policy	energy	supply	pipeline	attack	export
宗教活动	religious	religion	Muslim	community	Islamic	freedom	military	force	women	security
海军活动	navy	military	force	ship	cooperation	national	security	government	operation	order
军事活动	military	army	security	weapon	policy	activity	power	business	defense	government
军事冲突	attack	military	force	politics	killed	war	troop	defense	government	weapon
种族冲突	army	ethnic	Muslim	police	Buddhist	death	violence	work	refugee	people
恐怖袭击	terrorism	terrorist	Muslim	economic	attack	force	killed	civilian	military	bomb
核制裁	nuclear	energy	sanction	government	power	oil	force	security	economy	military
治安问题	police	court	victim	crime	security	law	book	prison	criminal	politics
教育活动	education	school	student	government	stage	university	focus	technology	development	book
难民活动	refugee	police	violence	peace	village	dead	civilian	issue	government	crisis
医疗健康	health	ministry	medical	program	disease	hospital	trial	aid	vaccine	doctor
航空活动	flight	oil	airplane	transport	tourism	airport	business	government	police	enable
旅游业	tourism	tourist	travel	hotel	development	festival	culture	business	service	official
毒品犯罪	drug	crime	regional	transnational	cooperation	organized	meeting	illicit	map	medical
人权侵犯	right	human	prison	government	year	activist	political	authority	torture	court
航天活动	space	flight	air	aerospace	business	craft	security	government	force	oil

国家	风险评级	风险程度	国家	风险评级	风险程度	国家	风险评级	风险程度
哈萨克斯坦	5	中等	塔吉克斯坦	7	较高	巴基斯坦	6	中等偏高
吉尔吉斯斯坦	8	很高	菲律宾	6	中等偏高	伊拉克	7	较高
沙特	4	中等偏低	伊朗	6	中等偏高
印度尼西亚	5	中等	缅甸	8	很高

事件	主题词1		主题词2		主题词3		主题词4		主题词5		主题词6
事件	主题词	概率	主题词	概率	主题词	概率	主题词	概率	主题词	概率	主题词	概率
政治选举	election	0.043	electoral	0.029	republic	0.023	commission	0.021	district	0.016	democratic	0.015
反恐	terrorism	0032	member	0.021	security	0.016	combating	0.014	extremism	0.014	terrorist	0.013
旅游开发	tourism	0.057	tourist	0.020	development	0.016	travel	0.015	tour	0.014	hotel	0.012
人权侵犯	human right	0.042	government	0.017	freedom	0.013	activist	0.011	political	0.010	authority	0.010
种植业	cotton	0.034	agriculture	0.021	agriculture	0.021	farmer	0.017	work	0.014	machinery	0.011
纺织工业	cotton	0.076	textile	0.060	industry	0.030	enterprise	0.025	fiber	0.016	export	0.012
矿产开发	mining	0.043	mineral	0.037	resource	0.030	gold	0.026	company	0.018	copper	0.014
能源贸易	gas	0.108	pipeline	0.043	oil	0.035	ton	0.027	energy	0.026	economic	0.018

Big data analysis of social development situation in regions along the Belt and Road

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正面影响事件				负面影响事件
事件	权重	事件	权重	事件	权重	事件	权重
政治外交	6.8	航天活动	5.0	军事活动	-4.2	种族冲突	-6.6
经济活动	6.8	医疗健康	5.0	毒品犯罪	-4.6	核制裁	-6.8
教育活动	6.0	航空活动	4.6	治安	-5.4	军事冲突	-7.6
宗教活动	6.0	旅游业	2.2	难民	-5.8	恐怖袭击	-8.0
能源活动	5.4	海军活动	0.2	人权侵犯	-6.0

国家	稳定度	国家	稳定度	国家	稳定度	国家	稳定度	国家	稳定度
阿曼	6.03	吉尔吉斯斯坦	3.72	印度尼西亚	2.89	菲律宾	2.29	巴基斯坦	-3.18
阿联酋	5.81	柬埔寨	3.47	塔吉克斯坦	2.86	伊朗	1.17	也门	-3.23
马来西亚	5.75	泰国	3.44	卡塔尔	2.76	科威特	-0.19	叙利亚	-4.73
越南	5.54	老挝	3.39	乌兹别克斯坦	2.75	约旦	-1.85	伊拉克	-5.11
哈萨克斯坦	4.97	沙特	3.01	土库曼斯坦	2.30	缅甸	-3.00	阿富汗	-7.05

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主题模型	验证数据	匹配	精度
LDA	96	59	61.4%
Labeled LDA	96	78	81.3%