PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 567-576.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.04.009

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Spatial change and influencing factors of population aging in Shandong Province at the township scale

Shaoxing LI1,2(), Xianzhi WANG3, Xiaole JI2,4, Ye ZHANG2   

  1. 1. School of Shandong Development, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China
    2. Center for Economic Research, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China
    3. Shandong Institute of Construction and Development, Jinan 250001, China
    4. Shandong Institute of Land Surveying and Mapping, Jinan 250102, China
  • Received:2018-06-28 Revised:2019-01-09 Online:2019-04-28 Published:2019-04-28
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41201163;National Science and Technology Support Program, No. 2014BAL04B01


Based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses, this study examined the change of the spatial pattern of population aging of Shandong Province and its influencing factors by spatial statistical analysis and spatial econometric model at the township scale. It concluded that population aging is developing rapidly in the province, but the differences between the towns are very significant. Two types of territories with clear spatial agglomeration trends are recognized. One type is concentrated near cities and their surrounding areas, characterized by lower proportion, higher density, higher absolute growth rate, and lower relative growth rate of elderly population. The other type is towns located in the Jiaodong Peninsula area, the Yellow River Delta area, Yimeng Mountain area, and the West Shandong area, and mainly featured by higher proportion, lower density, lower absolute growth rate, and higher relative growth rate of elderly population. In contrast with the previous studies, we obtained several new findings on the driving forces of population aging in Shandong Province, reflecting the particular mechanism of change at the township scale. According to the regression results of the spatial econometric model, the population aging foundation does not have evident influence on the range of change, although it affects the static pattern in the next period, which means that the process of change is more complex and uncertain to predict than its spatial distribution. In addition, economic growth has a significantly negative effect on the spatial evolution of population aging, but the relationship between economic development level and the static aging level is unnoticeable.

Key words: population aging, spatial pattern, township scale, spatial econometric model, Shandong Province