PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 567-576.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.04.009
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Shaoxing LI1,2(), Xianzhi WANG3, Xiaole JI2,4, Ye ZHANG2
Received:
2018-06-28
Revised:
2019-01-09
Online:
2019-04-28
Published:
2019-04-28
Supported by:
Shaoxing LI, Xianzhi WANG, Xiaole JI, Ye ZHANG. Spatial change and influencing factors of population aging in Shandong Province at the township scale[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(4): 567-576.
Tab.1
Statistics of population aging indicators of Shandong Province, 2000 and 2010"
时间 | 统计参数 | 老年人口比重/% | 老年人口密度/(人/km2) | 老年人口年均增速/‰ | 老年人口与常住人口增速差/‰ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
五普 | 均值 | 8.12 | 46.29 | — | — |
极大值 | 15.97 | 7340.36 | — | — | |
极小值 | 1.54 | 0.05 | — | — | |
变异系数 | 0.22 | 3.64 | — | — | |
莫兰指数 | 0.60 | 0.64 | — | — | |
六普 | 均值 | 9.84 | 59.72 | 25.81 | 19.52 |
极大值 | 22.52 | 7291.87 | 168.99 | 128.92 | |
极小值 | 3.50 | 0.07 | -98.46 | -96.99 | |
变异系数 | 0.24 | 3.16 | — | — | |
莫兰指数 | 0.59 | 0.65 | 0.33 | 0.39 |
Tab.3
Indicators and their definition in the econometric models"
方程 | 变量 | 考察维度 | 具体指标(单位) | 代码 |
---|---|---|---|---|
方程1 | 被解释变量 | 人口老龄化格局演变 | 老年人口占比变化幅度(%) | ΔRAP |
解释变量 | 人口出生水平 | 0~14岁人口占比变化(%) | ΔRYP | |
人口年龄结构基础 | 五普时65岁以上老年人口占比(%) | FRAP | ||
人口迁移水平 | 外来人口占比变化幅度(%) | ΔEP | ||
经济发展水平 | 灯光量年均增速(%) | ΔVLI | ||
地区受教育水平 | 万人学校数(个) | NS | ||
地区医疗卫生条件 | 万人医院卫生院数(个) | NH | ||
地区间相互作用 | 空间滞后项 | WLAG | ||
方程2 | 被解释变量 | 人口老龄化静态格局 | 六普老年人口占比(%) | RAP |
解释变量 | 人口出生水平 | 六普0~14岁人口占比(%) | RYP | |
人口年龄结构基础 | 五普时65岁以上老年人口占比(%) | FRAP | ||
人口迁移水平 | 六普外来人口占比(%) | EP | ||
经济发展水平 | 六普万人灯光量(无量纲) | PLI | ||
地区受教育水平 | 万人学校数(个) | NS | ||
地区医疗卫生条件 | 万人医院卫生院数(个) | NH | ||
地区间相互作用 | 空间滞后项 | WLAG |
Tab.4
Regression results of the econometric models for population aging of Shandong Province"
回归变量 | 方程1 | 方程2 |
---|---|---|
ΔRAP | RAP | |
ΔRYP | -0.026813*** | — |
RYP | — | -0.148352*** |
FRAP | 0.00854982 | 0.643389*** |
ΔEP | -0.0838488*** | — |
EP | — | -0.0667621*** |
ΔVLI | -0.0172225* | — |
PLI | — | -6.59999E-05 |
NS | 0.0724394*** | 0.0677682** |
NH | 0.0501008* | 0.06076** |
WLAG | 0.609856*** | 0.347385*** |
R2 | 0.542195 | 0.825258 |
样本数 | 1678 | 1678 |
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