乡镇尺度上的山东省人口老龄化空间格局演变与影响因素研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.04.009

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the 2000 and 2010 censuses, this study examined the change of the spatial pattern of population aging of Shandong Province and its influencing factors by spatial statistical analysis and spatial econometric model at the township scale. It concluded that population aging is developing rapidly in the province, but the differences between the towns are very significant. Two types of territories with clear spatial agglomeration trends are recognized. One type is concentrated near cities and their surrounding areas, characterized by lower proportion, higher density, higher absolute growth rate, and lower relative growth rate of elderly population. The other type is towns located in the Jiaodong Peninsula area, the Yellow River Delta area, Yimeng Mountain area, and the West Shandong area, and mainly featured by higher proportion, lower density, lower absolute growth rate, and higher relative growth rate of elderly population. In contrast with the previous studies, we obtained several new findings on the driving forces of population aging in Shandong Province, reflecting the particular mechanism of change at the township scale. According to the regression results of the spatial econometric model, the population aging foundation does not have evident influence on the range of change, although it affects the static pattern in the next period, which means that the process of change is more complex and uncertain to predict than its spatial distribution. In addition, economic growth has a significantly negative effect on the spatial evolution of population aging, but the relationship between economic development level and the static aging level is unnoticeable.

Key words: population aging, spatial pattern, township scale, spatial econometric model, Shandong Province

Shaoxing LI, Xianzhi WANG, Xiaole JI, Ye ZHANG. Spatial change and influencing factors of population aging in Shandong Province at the township scale[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(4): 567-576.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 31

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时间	统计参数	老年人口比重/%	老年人口密度/(人/km²)	老年人口年均增速/‰	老年人口与常住人口增速差/‰
五普	均值	8.12	46.29	—	—
	极大值	15.97	7340.36	—	—
	极小值	1.54	0.05	—	—
	变异系数	0.22	3.64	—	—
	莫兰指数	0.60	0.64	—	—
六普	均值	9.84	59.72	25.81	19.52
	极大值	22.52	7291.87	168.99	128.92
	极小值	3.50	0.07	-98.46	-96.99
	变异系数	0.24	3.16	—	—
	莫兰指数	0.59	0.65	0.33	0.39

时间	年轻型	成年型	浅度老龄化	中度老龄化	深度老龄化
五普	20	275	1075	274	34
六普	5	105	556	743	269

方程	变量	考察维度	具体指标(单位)	代码
方程1	被解释变量	人口老龄化格局演变	老年人口占比变化幅度(%)	ΔRAP
	解释变量	人口出生水平	0~14岁人口占比变化(%)	ΔRYP
		人口年龄结构基础	五普时65岁以上老年人口占比(%)	FRAP
		人口迁移水平	外来人口占比变化幅度(%)	ΔEP
		经济发展水平	灯光量年均增速(%)	ΔVLI
		地区受教育水平	万人学校数(个)	NS
		地区医疗卫生条件	万人医院卫生院数(个)	NH
		地区间相互作用	空间滞后项	WLAG
方程2	被解释变量	人口老龄化静态格局	六普老年人口占比(%)	RAP
	解释变量	人口出生水平	六普0~14岁人口占比（%）	RYP
		人口年龄结构基础	五普时65岁以上老年人口占比(%)	FRAP
		人口迁移水平	六普外来人口占比(%)	EP
		经济发展水平	六普万人灯光量(无量纲)	PLI
		地区受教育水平	万人学校数(个)	NS
		地区医疗卫生条件	万人医院卫生院数(个)	NH
		地区间相互作用	空间滞后项	WLAG

回归变量	方程1	方程2
回归变量	ΔRAP	RAP
ΔRYP	-0.026813^***	—
RYP	—	-0.148352^***
FRAP	0.00854982	0.643389^***
ΔEP	-0.0838488^***	—
EP	—	-0.0667621^***
ΔVLI	-0.0172225^*	—
PLI	—	-6.59999E-05
NS	0.0724394^***	0.0677682^**
NH	0.0501008^*	0.06076^**
WLAG	0.609856^***	0.347385^***
R²	0.542195	0.825258
样本数	1678	1678

Spatial change and influencing factors of population aging in Shandong Province at the township scale

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