中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.02.006

Abstract

Abstract:

Climate change with warming as the main characteristic has important influence on crop phenology. Rising temperature usually leads to faster crop growth and shortened growth period that causes loss of crop yield, which is not conducive to agricultural development. Meanwhile, crop phenological changes can reflect climate change directly or indirectly, which has important significance for detecting climate change. Research on crop phenology is crucial for preventing agricultural meteorological disasters, the progress of agricultural production management, and the safety of agricultural production. With the continuous increase of global surface temperature, research on crop phenology has attracted increasingly more attention of scientists. Based on the key research methods of crop phenology, this article summarizes the studies on the change of crop growth period and the main driving factors of change of major crops, including wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and soybean, in recent decades in China. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) Statistical analysis methods have been most widely used and several other methods were combined with statistical analysis methods in application. Model simulation method has also been widely used in phenological research, and such method is easy to operate. Remote sensing inversion has a high requirement on the characteristics of the growth period, and the focus is generally on green-up period of spring crops. 2) Overall, the whole growth period of wheat is mainly shortened, and the main trend of whole growth period of maize and rice is prolonged. 3) The driving factors of main crop phenological change is climate change and agricultural management. Climate change is the dominant driving factor, which decides crop phenological change, and adjusting agricultural management measures can partly offset the negative impact of climate change on crop growth period. The study of response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change can provide an important theoretical basis for agricultural production to adapt to climate change.

Key words: climate change, crop phenology, growth period, driving factor, crop model

Yanxi ZHAO, Dengpan XIAO, Huizi BAI, Fulu TAO. Research progress on the response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(2): 224-235.

Figures/Tables 3

Tab.1

Characteristics of change and driving factors of wheat phenology in China"

分布区	物候变化	驱动因子	文献
全国春小麦/冬小麦种植区	1981—2009年,40%站点春/冬小麦HD和MD显著提前,30%站点WGP和VGP显著缩短,60%站点RGP显著延长	平均气温升高导致生育期提前,WGP和VGP缩短,品种变化延长RGP,日照长度缩短延长VGP	Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Xiao et al, 2014
	1980—2009年,冬小麦HD提前12.4 d/10 a,MD提前天数少于HD,VGP缩短,RGP延长6 d/10 a,WGP缩短11.3 d/10 a	气候变暖导致生育期变化	Xiao et al, 2015
	1981—2010年,春/冬小麦平均SD和EMD推迟,平均AD和MD提前,VGP与WGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖导致春/冬小麦VGP和WGP缩短,RGP延长;品种变化导致小麦变化与观测结果趋势基本一致	Liu et al, 2018
北部地区	2001—2009年,冬小麦EMD和MD推迟,HD提前,WGP与VGP缩短,RGP延长	品种保持不变,气候变暖为主要影响因子	高辉明等, 2013
北部地区	1980—2009年,春小麦AD和MD分别提前1.8 d/10 a、1.7 d/10 a,VGP和WGP分别缩短2.1 d/10 a和1.9 d/10 a,RGP延长0.2 d/10 a	气候变暖导致生育期提前,生长阶段缩短,品种更新和推迟播种期则一定程度上抵消了气候变暖的影响	Xiao, Tao et al, 2016
西北半干旱区	1981—2005年,冬小麦SD、ELD、AD、MD分别推迟0.3~0.4 d/a、0~0.2 d/a、0.3 d/a、0.2~0.4 d/a,WGP缩短0.6~1.3 d/a	气温升高,降水减少导致生育期缩短	Xiao et al, 2008
西北半干旱区	1981—2009年,冬小麦SD、EMD推迟,AD、MD提前;WGP、VGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖导致生育期变化,播种期和品种变化减小了气候变暖对生育期的影响	He et al, 2015
华北地区	1981—2009年,冬小麦EMD推迟,AD和MD提前,WGP缩短,AD至MD延长	气候变暖为主导因子,品种、播种期和农业管理措施变化等因素也有一定影响	Tao et al, 2017
	1982-2000年,冬小麦EMD和HAD均提前,HAD提前幅度更大,EMD—HAD缩短	气候变暖为主要影响因子	Fang et al, 2005
	1980-2009年,冬小麦SD至ELD、SD至AD、SD至MD缩短,其他生育阶段变化在站点间并不统一显著;	气温升高导致SD至ELD、SD至AD、SD至MD缩短,晚播导致SD至ELD缩短,品种变化对各站点影响不一	Wang et al, 2013
	1981—2009年,冬小麦SD、EMD推迟, AD、MD提前,AD至MD延长,WGP缩短	气候变暖促使生育期变化,品种变化导致AD至MD略微延长	Tao et al, 2013
	1981—2005年,冬小麦WGP、VGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖缩短WGP、VGP,延长RGP,品种变化延长WGP和VGP,RGP在多数站点延长	Li et al, 2016
	1982—2013年,冬小麦78%的区域GUD提前,平均提前1.8 d/10 a	气候变化为物候变化主因,但土壤水分因素不能忽略,对返青期影响较大	Wang S et al, 2017

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Characteristics of change and driving factors of rice phenology in China"

分布区	物候变化	驱动因子	文献
全国水稻种植区	1981—2009年,单季稻WGP在信阳、镇江延长显著,在武昌略有延长,在汉源变化较小	气候变暖缩短水稻生育期,品种变化延长了生育期,品种变化影响略大于气候变化影响	Liu et al, 2012
	1981—2009年,除衡阳晚熟稻WGP延长外,南昌、衡阳和高要的早熟稻和晚熟稻的WGP均缩短	气候变暖缩短水稻生育期,品种变化则延长了生育期,但气候变暖对生育期影响要大于品种变化的影响	Liu L et al, 2013
	1981—2006年,单季稻和双季稻平均情况下,VGP缩短3.3 d/℃,RGP缩短1.2 d/℃,WGP缩短4.1 d/℃	气候变暖导致生育期缩短;单季稻和早熟稻品种变化影响不明显,晚熟稻VGP缩短0.9 d/℃,表明晚熟稻品种变化为短生育期品种	Zhang et al, 2013
	1981—2009年,单季稻和双季稻的TPD、HD、MD提前,VGP、RGP、WGP变化程度相同	气温升高导致VGP和RGP缩短;品种变化使得单季稻VGP延长,双季稻VGP缩短,单季稻和早熟稻RGP延长	Zhang et al, 2014
	1981—2012年,单季稻和双季稻的VGP变化幅度大于RGP变化幅度	气温升高对于单季稻、早熟稻以及晚熟稻的生育期变化的平均贡献比例分别为-40%、-45%、-35%,品种变化则为58%、44%、-37%	Hu et al, 2017
	1991—2012年,早熟稻WGP平均延长(1.0±4.8) d/10 a,晚熟稻WGP平均延长(0.2±4.5) d/10 a,单季稻WGP平均延长(2.0±6.0) d/10 a	气候变暖导致早熟稻生育期缩短,晚熟稻延长;移栽期的改变等农业管理措施是早熟稻和单季稻生育期变化的主导因素	Wang X et al, 2017
	1981—2009年,单季稻HD、MD推迟,但单季稻、早熟稻和晚熟稻的平均TPD、HD、MD均提前;单季稻的VGP、RGP、WGP均延长,长江中下游平原双季稻则为VGP与WGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖导致80%站点水稻生育期缩短,但品种变化延长了单季稻和长江中下游平原早熟稻的RGP,而晚熟稻WGP由于气候变化和品种变化共同作用而缩短	Tao et al, 2013
东北地区	1989—2009年,单季稻SD提前,MD推迟,VGP、RGP与WGP显著延长	气候变暖和新育成品种是1989—2009年影响东北地区水稻生育期延长的主要因素	侯雯嘉等, 2015
华北地区	1981—2007年,单季稻SD和TPD显著提前,SD至TPD逐渐缩短,TPD至HD和HD至MD延长,其中TPD至HD显著延长,气候倾向率达4.4 d/10 a	信阳地区水稻生育期的变化主要受4—5月温度变化的影响	薛昌颖等, 2010

Tab.3

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分布区	物候变化	驱动因子	文献
全国玉米种植区	1981—2009年,西北、东北、西南的春玉米SD显著提前,58.9%站点HD提前;东北和华北地区玉米MD显著延迟;41.1%站点玉米WGP显著延长	气温升高导致大约80%站点HD和MD提前,WGP缩短,品种变化则使得超过90%站点HD和MD推迟,WGP延长;除此之外,推迟播期也可以延长WGP	Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014
东北地区	1981—2007年,玉米SD提前,MD推迟4~21 d,RGP延长,WGP延长2~38 d	气候变暖导致VGP、RGP和WGP缩短,品种变化则导致VGP、RGP和WGP延长,早播导致RGP缩短,VGP延长,但不显著	Liu Z et al, 2013
东北地区	1990—2012年,春玉米VGP在43.4%站点缩短,在56.6%站点延长;RGP在22.6%站点缩短,77.4%站点延长;WGP在33.9%站点显著延长	气候、品种、农业管理措施等因子综合影响导致区域生育期变化	Li et al, 2014
西北地区	1980—2010年,春玉米平均VGP、RGP和WGP延长	气候变暖缩短WGP,晚熟品种的使用则延长了WGP	Bu et al, 2015
华北地区	1981—2010年,夏玉米SD至ELD和ELD至AD在多数站点呈缩短趋势,RGP和WGP在92.6%站点呈延长趋势	平均温度与WGP呈负相关,降水量则呈正相关;气候变暖缩短玉米WGP,而品种变化则延长了玉米VGP、RGP和WGP	Wang et al, 2016
	1981—2008年,夏玉米MD推迟,VGP缩短,RGP延长	气候变暖使得AD和MD提前,RGP缩短,品种变化则导致MD推迟、RGP延长2.4 d/10 a~3.7 d/10 a	Xiao, Qi et al, 2016
	1981—2009年,夏玉米SD推迟,EMD、ELD、TAD、AD和MD提前,VGP缩短0.9 d/10 a,RGP延长1.7 d/10 a,WGP延长0.4 d/10 a	生育期长度与平均温度呈负相关,但与降水、日照时间和有效积温日呈正相关	Liu Y J et al, 2017

Research progress on the response and adaptation of crop phenology to climate change in China

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