基于生态-经济权衡的京津冀城市群土地利用优化配置

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.01.003

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to achieve harmonious ecological and economic development in urban agglomerations, it is important to explore the trade-offs between environmental protection and economic development, and use this knowledge to optimize land use allocation. This study aimed to simulate land use changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration with different goals and under different scenarios in 2025 to identify the optimal land use allocation strategies based on the trade-offs between ecological and economic benefits. In order to meet the land use demands for environment-friendly development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, we developed two optimization goals—ecosystem services value maximization and economic value maximization, and four land use scenarios—environmental protection, balanced development, food security, and economic development focus. A CLUE-S model was built to simulate and predict the optimal land use allocation strategy. The results show that the optimal land use allocations with the ecosystem services maximization goal were very different comparing to that with the economic value maximization goal. The ecosystem services value is estimated to be approximately 1442.36 billion Yuan with the ecosystem services maximization goal and under the environmental protection scenarios, more than that with the economic value maximization goal and under the same scenario. Spatially, the increase of ecologically beneficial land-use types, including forest land and grassland, is more often seen in the Bashang Plateau, Yanshan Mountains, and Taihang Mountains. The increase of water areas often occurs in coastal regions in the east. There are significant trade-offs between ecosystem services value maximization and economic value maximization. The results of this trade-off analysis can provide a basis for future ecological projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.

Key words: ecological-economic benefits trade-off, land use allocation, CLUE-S model, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

Bingying MA, Jiao HUANG, Shuangcheng LI. Optimal allocation of land use types in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration based on ecological and economic benefits trade-offs[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(1): 26-37.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 22

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	耕地	林地	草地	水体	建设用地	未利用地
经济效益系数	10.832	17.148	16.125	31.822	163.139	0
单位面积ESV/(元/m²)	2.183	10.734	6.574	48.398	0	0.354

模拟情景	内涵
生态保护	偏好生态用地(林地、草地、水体)面积的增加,限制生态用地向其他地类转换的数量
统筹兼顾	同时考虑生态保护、粮食安全和经济发展,均衡分配生态用地、耕地和建设用地面积
粮食安全	重点保障基本农田面积,严格控制耕地向其他地类转换的数量,维护粮食安全
经济发展	放宽经济发展限制,适当增加建设用地面积以提高经济效益

优化目标	模拟情景	价值量约束	粮食需求约束	土地利用面积约束
经济目标	生态保护	ESV增加10%	增加0.8%	水域面积不少于总面积的3%,林地面积不少于总面积的30% (2006—2020年北京、天津、河北的土地利用总体规划),草地、建设用地面积不小于现状值
	统筹兼顾	ESV增加5%	增加1%	林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积不低于现状值
	粮食安全	ESV不低于现状值	增加1.6%	林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积不低于现状值,耕地面积不低于受保护基本农田面积
	经济发展	ESV不低于现状值	增加1.3%	林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积不低于现状值
生态目标	生态保护	GDP增加5%	增加0.8%	水域面积不少于总面积的3%,林地面积不少于总面积的30% (2006—2020年北京、天津、河北的土地利用总体规划),草地、建设用地面积不小于现状值
	统筹兼顾	GDP增加6.5%	增加1%	林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积不低于现状值
	粮食安全	GDP增加6.5%	增加1.6%	林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积不低于现状值,耕地面积不低于受保护基本农田面积
	经济发展	GDP增加8%	增加1.3%	林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积不低于现状值

因子	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
高程DEM	-0.001296	0.002152	0.000839	-0.001049	-0.001346	0.001033
人均GDP	-0.000090	-0.000084	-0.000101	0.000040	0.000123	-0.000150
人口密度	-0.000235	-0.001394	-0.000837	-0.000940	0.000493	-0.004780
年均降水量	-0.006083	0.014311	0.001584	0.002384	-0.000694
坡度	-0.100137	0.064939	0.030768	-0.047361	-0.047361	-0.285026
土壤有机碳含量	0.007466	-0.007323	0.011634			-0.032228
常数	4.465737	-10.705531	-3.152 222	-4.098 485	-1.402 509	-3.639565
ROC检验值	0.811	0.892	0.770	0.770	0.825	0.859

土地利用类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
耕地	1	1	1	1	1	1
林地	1	1	1	1	1	1
草地	1	1	1	1	1	1
水域	1	1	1	1	1	1
建设用地	1	1	1	1	1	1
未利用地	1	1	1	1	1	1

Optimal allocation of land use types in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration based on ecological and economic benefits trade-offs

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Figures/Tables 12

References 22

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优化目标	情景	耕地	林地	草地	水体	建设用地	未利用地
经济目标	生态保护	757.84	642.11	336.52	64.21	332.42	7.27
	统筹兼顾	773.01	558.11	336.52	60.82	404.64	7.27
	粮食安全	820.18	491.57	336.52	60.82	424.01	7.27
	经济发展	796.28	496.43	336.52	60.82	443.05	7.27
生态目标	生态保护	757.84	697.55	336.52	64.21	276.98	7.27
	统筹兼顾	773.01	677.64	336.52	60.82	285.11	7.27
	粮食安全	820.18	628.43	336.52	60.82	287.15	7.27
	经济发展	796.28	646.23	336.52	60.82	293.24	7.27

优化目标	情景	耕地	林地	草地	水体	建设用地	未利用地
经济目标	生态保护	758.34	642.16	336.77	63.31	332.54	7.25
	统筹兼顾	773.32	558.44	336.92	59.96	404.47	7.26
	粮食安全	820.21	491.91	336.93	59.92	424.15	7.25
	经济发展	796.73	496.62	336.68	60.01	443.10	7.23
生态目标	生态保护	758.20	697.76	336.72	63.29	277.13	7.27
	统筹兼顾	773.25	678.61	336.09	59.79	285.36	7.27
	粮食安全	819.12	629.56	336.83	60.05	287.55	7.26
	经济发展	796.16	646.62	337.01	59.86	293.44	7.28

目标	情景	生态系统服务价值	经济价值
2015年现状		12224.82	69358.80
经济目标	生态保护	13828.38	80921.12
	统筹兼顾	12801.30	91278.20
	粮食安全	12187.65	93854.73
	经济发展	12189.66	96771.49
生态目标	生态保护	14423.58	72832.03
	统筹兼顾	14077.34	73887.77
	粮食安全	13668.41	73921.01
	经济发展	13793.41	74922.60

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