Abstract:

Migrants' hukou transfer intention of the western ethnic minority regions has great implications not only for the overall urbanization level, but also for national unity and harmony in the society. Based on the dynamic monitoring data in 2012 from Xinjiang Autonomous Region and using a binary logistic regression model, this study analyzed the similarities and differences between the willingness of migrants to migrate in different regions and ethnic minority groups and their influential factors. According to the results, migrants' hukou transfer intention reached a high level, and more than half of respondents were willing to transfer their hukou to cities where they reside. This proportion is slightly higher in northern Xinjiang than in the south, and the related value is higher in ethnic minorities than Han nationality. The modeling result shows that Xinjiang barely had any attraction to highly educated and economically well-to-do migrants. Ethnic type, time of residence, and social integration degree are found to be the core factors in the dynamic system concerning migrants' hukou transfer intention. As well, there are different factors in different regions and ethnic groups in Xinjiang, when migrants make transfer decisions. But there is no regional or inter-group difference concerning social integration factors. Elevated social integration significantly helped to heighten transfer intention.

Key words: migrants, hukou transfer intention, dynamics, binary logistic regression model, western ethnic minority regions, Xinjiang Autonomous Region