广东省“人口—经济—土地—社会—生态”城市化协调度时空变化及其聚类模式

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.02.011

Abstract

Abstract:

Multidimensional urbanization coordination evaluation is an important aspect for measuring the quality of urbanization of a region, and spatial-temporal clustering models are effective means for analyzing features of urbanization. Considering the lack of multidimensional comprehensive spatial-temporal analysis of urbanization coordination degree at present, this article takes Guangdong Province as an example and propose a complex spatial-temporal coordination degree evaluation model based on spatial-temporal weight matrix. This model is used to analyze the urbanization coordination level from 2006 to 2014, and the clustering is analyzed by the spatiotemporal scanning method. The results show that: (1) The coordination level of urbanization in recent years shows three kinds of temporal characteristics: the level of population urbanization shows the "concentrated" characteristics of development with time, while the economy and land show low frequency alternations of "concentrated and scattered " development, and social, ecological, and comprehensive level show a high frequency alternation of "concentrated and scattered" development. The spatial-temporal changes of each dimension and comprehensive system coordination degree show that the stable cities are mainly located in the core area of the Pearl River Delta. (2) The spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of each system are not only differentiated, but also overlapped. Western Guangdong Province forms a spatial-temporal cluster featuring coordination of population urbanization; the economic and land dimensions of the coordination of spatial-temporal clustering coincide in the Pearl River Delta and northern Guangdong; the social and ecological dimensions of coordination of spatial-temporal clustering cross in the Pearl River Delta and eastern Guangdong Province, and system coordination is centered. In addition, the stability of population, economic, and social dimensions in the spatial-temporal clusters is superior to that of land and ecological dimensions. The conclusion of this study is helpful for revealing the spatial-temporal characteristics of urbanization in the region.

Key words: urbanization coordination level, spatial-temporal changes, complex spatial-temporal system coordination degree evaluation model, spatial-temporal clustering model, Guangdong Province

Jiufeng LI, Huafei YU, Yingchun FU, Yaolong ZHAO. Spatial-temporal changes of population-economy-land-society-ecology coordination level of urbanization and clustering: A case of Guangdong Province, China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(2): 287-298.

Figures/Tables 8

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一级指标	二级指标	变化趋向
人口城市化I₁	常住人口城镇化率X₁/%	正向
	第二、三产业从业人员比重X₂/%	正向
	常住城镇人口X₃/万人	正向
经济城市化I₂	人均GDP X₄/元	正向
	第二、三产业产值比重X₅/%	正向
	固定资产投资X₆/亿元	正向
	地均GDP密度X₇/(亿元/km²)	正向
土地城市化I₃	人均建成区面积X₈/(m²/人)	正向
	人均城市道路面积X₉/(m²/人)	正向
	建成区面积X₁₀/km²	正向
社会城市化I₄	每万人在校大学生人数X₁₁/人	正向
	每万人拥有公共汽车X₁₂/辆	正向
	每万人医院床位数X₁₃/张	正向
生态城市化I₅	全市建成区绿化覆盖率X₁₄/%	正向
	全市建成区绿化覆盖面积X₁₅/hm²	正向
	工业固体废物综合利用率X₁₆/%	正向

协调度区间	协调类型	等级
0.90~1.00	优质协调	1级
0.80~0.90	良好协调	2级
0.70~0.80	中度协调	3级
0.60~0.70	初级协调	4级
0.00~0.60	不协调	5级

类型	指示特征
稳定型	指示城市化时序协调等级始终处于一种稳定状态,或由一种稳定状态过渡到另一种稳定状态,抑或仅有一个异常年份的曲线特征。
波动型	指示城市化时序协调等级先升（降）后降（升）或者始终处于一种不稳定的变换状态,抑或具有类似状态的曲线特征。
交叉型	指示前期稳定型（波动型）与后期波动型（稳定型）的曲线特征。

Spatial-temporal changes of population-economy-land-society-ecology coordination level of urbanization and clustering: A case of Guangdong Province, China

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