1906-2015年武汉市温度变化序列重建与初步分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.09.014

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the monthly maximum and minimum temperature data at Wuhan meteorological station in 1906-2015, annual mean temperature during the 110 years was reconstructed and the temporal change was analyzed. The main conclusions are: (1) Annual mean temperature of Wuhan showed multi-decadal variations. Two warm periods were experienced during 1906-1946 and 1994-2015; and between 1947 and 1993, annual mean temperature was relatively low. (2) At multi-decadal temporal scales, annual mean temperature of Wuhan showed several significant warming and cooling trends. The largest warming trends at 30- and 50-year scales were detected during 1980-2009 and 1960-2009, with linear trends amounting to 2.67±0.48 ℃/30a and 2.20±0.50 ℃/50a, respectively. The strongest cooling trends for the same temporal scales were detected for 1928-1957 and 1925-1974, with linear trends being -1.23±0.48 ℃/30a and -1.40±0.35 ℃/50a, respectively. (3) During the 110 years, there existed three abrupt changes in Wuhan annual mean temperature. During the early 1920s and the mid-late 1990s, temperature of Wuhan turned from cold to warm conditions. In the 1940s, the change was to the opposite. (4) Comparing temperature change of Wuhan with global, hemispheric, and China's country scales, the temperatures showed similar temporal evolution, with Wuhan exhibiting greater amplitude of change. The recent pause in global warming was also observed in Wuhan.

Key words: temperature reconstruction, rate of change, abrupt change, climate change, Wuhan City

Junhui YAN, Haolong LIU, Quansheng Ge, Jingyun ZHENG, Zhixin HAO, Yimin WANG. Reconstruction and analysis of annual mean temperature of Wuhan for the 1906-2015 period[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(9): 1176-1183.

Figures/Tables 8

Tab.1

Interpolation of missing data at Wuhan meteorological station, 1906-2015"

MISS	REF.	r	SSE	MISS	REF.	r	SSE
06/01, 37/01, 38/01	武汉	0.992	0.197	37/08	武汉	0.987	0.182
41/01, 43/01	徐州	0.865	0.772	38/08	长沙	0.765	0.734
42/01	安庆	0.951	0.475	41/08, 43/08	徐州	0.798	0.693
44/01, 45/01, 46/01	芷江	0.864	0.770	42/08	安庆	0.882	0.537
06/02, 37/01, 38/02	武汉	0.997	0.180	44/08, 45/08	青岛	0.709	0.805
41/02, 43/02	徐州	0.953	0.671	46/08	南京	0.855	0.592
42/02	安庆	0.981	0.432	37/09	武汉	0.991	0.162
44/02, 45/02	济南	0.907	0.928	38/09	长沙	0.796	0.736
46/02	南京	0.952	0.671	41/09, 43/09	徐州	0.744	0.811
06/03, 37/03, 38/03	武汉	0.996	0.152	42/09	安庆	0.890	0.555
41/03, 43/03	徐州	0.887	0.813	44/09, 45/09	上海	0.740	0.819
42/03	安庆	0.966	0.452	46/09	南京	0.826	0.687
44/03, 45/03	芷江	0.878	0.837	37/10	武汉	0.993	0.155
46/03	南京	0.928	0.651	38/10	长沙	0.867	0.655
06/04, 37/04, 38/04	武汉	0.995	0.152	41/10, 43/10	徐州	0.855	0.687
27/04, 46/04	长沙	0.910	0.617	42/10	安庆	0.938	0.457
41/04	安庆	0.952	0.456	44/10, 45/10	芷江	0.818	0.757
42/04, 43/04, 44/05, 45/05	上海	0.869	0.743	46/10	南京	0.890	0.599
06/05, 37/05	武汉	0.992	0.169	37/11	武汉	0.991	0.193
38/05, 46/05	长沙	0.891	0.601	38/11, 41/11, 43/11	芷江	0.899	0.641
41/05, 43/05, 44/05, 45/05	芷江	0.833	0.732	42/11	安庆	0.940	0.500
42/05	安庆	0.958	0.379	44/11, 45/11	济南	0.801	0.876
06/06, 37/06	武汉	0.988	0.173	46/11	长沙	0.920	0.572
38/06, 46/06	长沙	0.761	0.716	37/12	武汉	0.990	0.211
41/06, 43/06, 44/06, 45/06	上海	0.706	0.781	38/12, 44/12, 45/12	芷江	0.892	0.682
42/06	安庆	0.897	0.487	41/12,43/12	徐州	0.893	0.678
37/07	武汉	0.991	0.156	42/12	安庆	0.953	0.460
42/07	安庆	0.902	0.511	46/12	长沙	0.894	0.677
38/07, 41/07, 43/07, 44/07, 45/07, 46/07	上海	0.763	0.766

Tab.1

Fig.1

Tab.2

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Tab.3

Fig.5

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冷暖时段	1906-1946	1947-1993	1994-2015
气候特征	相对温暖	相对寒冷	相对温暖
平均值/℃	0.34	-0.28	0.93
标准差/℃	0.42	0.37	0.65
最冷年/(距平/℃)	1910/-0.53	1969/-1.28	2012/-0.24
最暖年/(距平/℃)	1914/1.05	1990/0.52	2007/2.03
最冷年代	1909-1918	1967-1976	2006-2015
最冷年代距平/℃	0.02	-0.56	0.73
最暖年代	1932-1941	1957-1966	1998-2007
最暖年代距平/℃	0.61	-0.12	1.44

季节	阶段变化			变化速率/(℃/a)			跃变点
季节	暖期		冷期	暖期	增温	降温	20年尺度	30年尺度
夏季	1906-1967	1968-1993	1994-2015	0.075	-0.047		1925, 1937, 1999	1922, 1937, 1994
冬季	1906-1949	1950-1989	1990-2015	0.083	-0.043		1990	1988
年均	1906-1946	1947-1993	1994-2015	0.089	-0.041		1920, 1947, 1997	1921, 1942, 1994

Reconstruction and analysis of annual mean temperature of Wuhan for the 1906-2015 period

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