中国地级以上城市“五化”协调发展时空格局及影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.07.003

Abstract

Abstract:

Accelerating the coordinated development of greenization, industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, and informationization is a key requirement for building a comprehensive well-off society and realizing the sustainable development of the economy and society. Based on data of the 342 prefecture level and above administrative units in China, this study constructed an index system for evaluating the coordination level and efficiency of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development, and used the coupled coordination model, data envelopment model, and panel data regression analysis model to analyze the coordination level, development efficiency, spatial distribution, and influencing factors of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development of each administrative unit in 2008 and 2013.The results show that: (1) Between 2008 and 2013, the comprehensiveness degree, coupling degree, and coordination degree of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development increased and the regional differences gradually reduced, but the level of development of the Circum-Bohai-Sea Region, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and other eastern China regions was still higher than that in central and western China. (2) The spatial distribution of the coordinated development of the "Five Modernizations" showed "clustering," "hierarchical," and "stepped" characteristics, with an eastern > central > western development pattern. (3) The comprehensive efficiency and scale efficiency of the coordinated development of the "Five Modernizations" was low and the regional difference was significant; the technical efficiency was high and the regional differences was small. The coordinated development efficiency of the "Five Modernizations" showed "hierarchical" and "stepped" characteristics, with efficiencies corresponding to cities' administrative level and decreasing from the eastern to the central and western regions. (4) The low scale efficiency was the key factor that led to low comprehensive efficiency of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development. The spatial pattern of the "Five Modernizations" coordination degree was the result of the differences and interactions between complex geographical environment, economic, and social development factors.

Key words: "Five Modernizations" coordinated development, spatiotemporal patterns, influencing factor, coupling function, China

Xiaojun JIANG, Qingshan YANG, Jian LIU. Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development of prefecture level and above cities in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(7): 806-819.

Figures/Tables 11

Tab.1

Index system for the comprehensive evaluation of the “Five Modernizations” coordinated development"

一级指标层	二级指标层	指标计算	指标属性	指标权重
工业化指数	工业产出比重	工业增加值/GDP(%)	+	0.158
	工业就业比重	工业从业人数/总就业人数(%)	+	0.156
	工业人均产值	工业总产值/总人口(元/人)	+	0.193
	工业劳动生产率	工业增加值/二产从业人员(万元/人)	+	0.183
	工业产值利润率	规上工业利润总额/规上工业总产值(%)	+	0.116
	工业利用外资率	外商投资工业总产值/规上工业总产值(%)	+	0.194
城镇化指数	人口城镇化率	非农人口/总人口(%)	+	0.184
	人均消费指数	社会消费品零售总额/总人口(元/人)	+	0.221
	医卫人员指数	医卫机构人员/总人口(人/万人)	+	0.159
	社会保障指数	基本养老保险人数/总人口(人/万人)	+	0.217
	市民生活质量	城镇居民人均可支配收入(元)	+	0.117
	三产产出比重	三产增加值/GDP(%)	+	0.112
农业现代化指数	农业劳动生产率	农业总产值/一产从业人数(万元/人)	+	0.164
	农业劳均农产品量	主要农产品/一产从业人数(kg/人)	+	0.182
	农业地均粮食产出	粮食产量/粮食作物播种面积(kg/hm2)	+	0.167
	农业机械化率	农业机械化总动力/耕地面积(kw/hm2)	+	0.152
	农业灌溉指数	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积(%)	+	0.163
	农民生活质量	农民人均纯收入(元)	+	0.172
信息化指数	信息产业产值比	信息产业增加值/GDP(%)	+	0.178
	邮电业务指数	邮电业务总量/总人口(元/人)	+	0.187
	互联网宽带普及度	互联网宽带接入用户/总人口(户/万人)	+	0.185
	移动电话普及度	移动电话使用人数/总人口(户/万人)	+	0.171
	固定电话普及度	固话使用人数/总人口(户/万人)	+	0.146
	信息人才指数	在校大学生人数/总人口(人/万人)	+	0.133
绿色化指数	森林覆盖率	森林面积/区域面积(%)	+	0.213
	大气环境指数	(废气SO₂+烟尘排放量)/总人口(t/万人)	-	0.151
	水环境指数	废水排放量/总人口(t/万人)	-	0.142
	能源利用效率	能源消费量/国民生产总值(t标准煤/万元)	-	0.156
	污水处理率	污水处理率(%)	+	0.176
	生活绿色化指数	生活垃圾无害化处理率(%)	+	0.162

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

Tab.4

Tab.5

Fig.5

Tab.6

References 31

1	丁志伟, 张改素, 王发曾. 2013. 中原经济区“三化”协调的内在机理与定量分析[J]. 地理科学, 33(4): 402-409.
	[Ding Z W, Zhang G S, Wang F Z.2013. The Internal Mechanism and quantitative analysis of coordination development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization of Zhongyuan Economic Region[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 33(4): 402-409.]
2	丁志伟, 张改素, 王发曾, 等. 2016. 中国工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化、绿色化“五化”协调定量评价的进展与反思[J]. 地理科学进展, 35(1): 4-13.
	[Ding Z W, Zhang G S, Wang F Z, et al.2016. Progress on quantitative evaluation of coordinated develop- ment of industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, informationization, and greenization in China and reflections[J]. Progress in Geography, 35(1): 4-13.]
3	范辉, 刘卫东, 张恒义. 2015. 浙江省“四化”协调发展的时空演变[J]. 地域研究与开发, 34(1): 19-25. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2015.01.004
	[Fan H, Liu W D, Zhang H Y.2015. Spatio-temporal evolution of coordination development among industrialization, information, urbanization and agricultural modernization (IIUAM) in Zhejiang Province[J]. Areal Research and Development, 34(1): 19-25.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2015.01.004
4	方创琳, 关兴良. 2011. 中国城市群投入产出效率的综合测度与空间分异[J]. 地理学报, 66(8): 1011-1022.
	[Fang C L, Guan X L.2011. Comprehensive measurement and spatial distinction of input-output efficiency of urban agglomerations in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 66(8): 1011-1022.]
5	方创琳, 王岩. 2015. 中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征[J]. 地理学报, 70(2): 234-247. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201502005
	[Fang C L, Wang Y.2015. A comprehensive assessment of urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 70(2): 234-247.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201502005
6	盖美, 连冬, 田成诗, 等. 2014. 辽宁省环境效率及其时空分异[J]. 地理研究, 33(12): 2345-2357. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201412012
	[Gai M, Lian D, Tian C S, et al.2014. The research for Liaoning environmental efficiency and spatial-temporal differentiation[J].Geographical Research, 33(12): 2345-2357.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201412012
7	郭俊华, 卫玲, 孟楠. 2014. 中国“四化”进程协调状态测度研究[J]. 区域经济评论, (5): 33-38.
	[Guo J H, Wei L, Meng N.2014. Zhongguo "sihua" jincheng xietiao zhuangtai ceduyanjiu[J]. Regional Economic Review, (5): 33-38.]
8	韩增林, 刘天宝. 2009. 中国地级以上城市城市化质量特征及空间差异[J]. 地理研究, 28(6): 1508-1515. doi: 10.11821/yj2009060007
	[Han Z L, Liu T B.2009. Analysis of the characteristics and spatial differences of urbanization quality of cities at prefecture level and above in China[J]. Geographical Research, 28(6): 1508-1515.] doi: 10.11821/yj2009060007
9	胡翠萍. 2012. 基于AHP-变异系数法的我国副省级城市科技竞争力评价研究[J]. 科技管理研究, 32(20): 77-80.
	[Hu C P.2012. A study on evaluation of science and technology competitiveness of sub-provincial cities in China based on AHP and coefficient of variance method[J]. Science and Technology Management Research, 32(20): 77-80.]
10	胡艳兴, 潘竟虎, 陈蜒, 等. 2015. 基于ESDA和GWR的中国地级及以上城市四化协调发展时空分异格局[J]. 经济地理, 35(5): 45-54.
	[Hu Y X, Pan J H, Chen Y, et al.2015. Spatiotemporal pattern of industrialization, information, urbanization and agricultural modernization of prefecture level cities or above in China based on ESDA and GWR[J]. Economic Geography, 35(5): 45-54.]
11	黄祥芳, 陈建成, 周伟. 2015. 江西省11市“四化”耦合协调发展水平测度[J]. 城市问题, (3): 67-74.
	[Huang X F, Chen J C, Zhou W.2015. A measurement of development level of coupling coordination between industrialization, informationization urbanization and agricultural modernization of 11 cities in Jiangxi Province[J]. Urban Problems, (3): 67-74.]
12	李国平. 2008. 我国工业化与城镇化的协调关系分析与评估[J]. 地域研究与开发, 27(5): 6-11, 16. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2008.05.002
	[Li G P.2008. The analysis and evaluation of the compatible relationship between industrialization and urbanization in China[J]. Areal Research and Development, 27(5): 6-11, 16.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2008.05.002
13	李瑞, 吴殿廷, 殷红梅, 等. 2014. 2000年以来中国东部四大沿海城市群城市旅游业发展效率的综合测度与时空特征[J]. 地理研究, 33(5): 961-977. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201405014
	[Li R, Wu D T, Yin H M, et al.2014. Comprehensive measurement and spatial characteristics of development efficiency for urban tourism in eastern China: A case study of four coastal urban agglomerations[J]. Geographical Research, 33(5): 961-977.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201405014
14	李裕瑞, 王婧, 刘彦随, 等. 2014. 中国“四化”协调发展的区域格局及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 69(2): 199-212. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201402005
	[Li Y R, Wang J, Liu Y S, et al.2014. Spatial pattern and influencing factors of the coordination development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in China: A prefecture level exploratory spatial data analysis[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(2): 199-212.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201402005
15	刘贺贺, 杨青山. 2016. 新陈代谢视角下东北地区城市健康诊断[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 30(3): 25-31. doi: 10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2016.075
	[Liu H H, Yang Q S.2016. Urban health diagnosis for the Northeast China from the perspective of urban metabolism[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 30(3): 25-31.] doi: 10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2016.075
16	龙冬平, 李同昇, 苗园园, 等. 2014. 中国农业现代化发展水平空间分异及类型[J]. 地理学报, 69(2): 213-226. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201402006
	[Long D P, Li T S, Miao Y Y, et al.2014. The spatial distribution and types of the development level of Chinese agricultural modernization[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(2): 213-226.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201402006
17	潘竟虎, 胡艳兴. 2015. 中国城市群"四化"协调发展效率测度[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 25(9): 100-107.
	[Pan J H, Hu Y X.2015. Measurement of the efficiency of coordinated development of the four modernizations for urban agglomerations in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 25(9): 100-107.]
18	钱丽, 陈忠卫, 肖仁桥. 2012. 中国区域工业化、城镇化与农业现代化耦合协调度及其影响因素研究[J]. 经济问题探索, (11): 10-17.
	[Qian L, Chen Z W, Xiao R Q.2012. Study on coupling coordination degree between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization and its influencing factors of China region[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, (11): 10-17.]
19	秦伟山, 张义丰, 袁境. 2013. 生态文明城市评价指标体系与水平测度[J]. 资源科学, 35(8): 1677-1684.
	[Qin W S, Zhang Y F, Yuan J.2013. Measuring and defining Eco-civilization cities in China[J]. Resources Science, 35(8): 1677-1684.]
20	渠爱雪. 2006. 江苏省新型工业化水平综合测度研究[J]. 经济地理, 26(1): 55-59, 65.
	[Qu A X.2006. A study on the synthetical measure of the new industrialization level in Jiangsu Province[J]. Economic Geography, 26(1): 55-59, 65.]
21	石涛. 2014. 中原经济区“四化”发展动态效率分解及协调度测度[J]. 区域经济评论, (3): 125-129.
	[Shi T.2014. Zhongyuan jingjiqu "sihua" fazhan dongtai xiaolv fenjie ji xietiaodu cedu[J]. Regional Economic Review, (3): 125-129.]
22	宋周莺, 刘卫东. 2013. 中国信息化发展进程及其时空格局分析[J]. 地理科学, 33(3): 257-265.
	[Song Z Y, Liu W D.2013. Spatio-te- mporal analysis of regional and provincial informatization in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 33(3): 257-265.]
23	孙平军, 丁四保, 修春亮. 2012. 北京市人口—经济—空间城市化耦合协调性分析[J]. 城市规划, 36(5): 38-45.
	[Song P J, Ding S B, Xiu C L.2012. Analysis of the coordination of population-economy-space in Beijing[J]. City Planning Review, 36(5): 38-45.]
24	田文富. 2016. 以“五化”协同引领绿色发展的体制机制建设[J]. 区域经济评论, (2): 139-144. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-4919.2016.02.021
	[Tian W F.2016. The construction of system and mechanism to "five" collaborative leading green development[J]. Regional Economic Review, (2): 139-144.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-4919.2016.02.021
25	王毅, 丁正山, 余茂军, 等. 2015. 基于耦合模型的现代服务业与城市化协调关系量化分析: 以江苏省常熟市为例[J]. 地理研究, 34(1): 97-108. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201501009
	[Wang Y, Ding Z S, Yu M J, et al.2015. Quantitative analysis of the coordination relation between modern service industry and urbanization based on coupling model: A case study of Changshu[J]. Geographical Research, 34(1): 97-108.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201501009
26	王瑜炜, 秦辉. 2014. 中国信息化与新型工业化耦合格局及其变化机制分析[J]. 经济地理, 34(2): 93-100.
	[Wang Y W, Qin H.2014. Spatial Pattern and change mechanism analysis on the coupling and coordinating degree of regional informatization and new indust- rialization in China[J]. Economic Geography, 34(2): 93-100.]
27	徐维祥, 舒季君, 唐根年. 2014. 中国工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展测度[J]. 经济地理, 34(9): 1-6.
	[Xu W X, Shu J J, Tang G N.2014. The measure on the synchronous development of industrialization, informatization, urbanization, agricultural mo-dernization[J]. Economic Geography, 34(9): 1-6.]
28	尹鹏, 刘继生, 陈才. 2015. 东北地区资源型城市基本公共服务效率研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 25(6): 127-134. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2015.06.018
	[Yin P, Liu J S, Chen C.2015. Efficiency of basic public service for resource-based cities in Northeast China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 25(6): 127-134.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2015.06.018
29	Liu Y S, Yang R, Li Y H.2013. Potential of land consolidation of hollowed villages under different urbanization scenarios in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 23(3): 503-512. doi: 10.1007/s11442-013-1024-8
30	Lu Q S, Liang F Y, Bi X L, et al.2011. Effects of urbanization and industrialization on agricultural land use in Shandong Peninsula of China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 11(6): 1710-1714. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2011.04.026
31	Sun P J, Song W, Xiu C L, et al.2013. Non-coordination in China's urbanization: Assessment and affecting factors[J]. Chinese Geograph- ical Science, 23(6): 729-739. doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0634-5

要素名称	一级指标	二级指标
投入指标	劳动力投入	年末就业总人数
	资本投入	人均固产投资、人均财政支出
	土地投入	城市建成区面积、人均耕地面积
产出指标	“五化”协调	“五化”协调度

协调度分级	一级	二级	三级	四级	五级	六级
协调度分级	极低协调	低级协调	中级协调	较高协调	高级协调	极高协调
协调度值	[0.0, 0.2]	(0.2, 0.4]	(0.4, 0.5]	(0.5, 0.6]	(0.6, 0.8]	(0.8, 1.0]

地区	综合效率			纯技术效率			规模效率
地区	2008		2013		2008	2013	2008	2013
直辖市	0.845	0.927		0.925	0.943		0.915	0.982
副省级及省会城市	0.769	0.797		0.893	0.905		0.857	0.88
地级市	0.473	0.515		0.825	0.848		0.579	0.610

地区	综合效率			纯技术效率			规模效率
地区	2008		2013		2008	2013	2008	2013
东部	0.591	0.647		0.896	0.929		0.653	0.694
中部	0.497	0.544		0.809	0.834		0.623	0.657
西部	0.445	0.468		0.802	0.814		0.564	0.582
中国均值	0.505	0.546		0.832	0.855		0.609	0.639

影响因素	回归系数	标准差	t统计量	P值
常数项	-0.212	0.028	-7.602	0.000
产业结构	0.531	0.035	15.313	0.000^***
人均农林水利支出	-0.106	0.067	-1.582	0.115^*
人均教育支出	0.227	0.086	2.632	0.009^***
人均科研经费支出	0.317	0.13	2.436	0.015^**
农村人均农业贷款额	0.122	0.046	2.674	0.007^***
城乡人均收入比	0.322	0.028	11.402	0.000^***
人均绿地面积	0.191	0.098	1.958	0.051^*

Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the "Five Modernizations" coordinated development of prefecture level and above cities in China

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 11

References 31

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	CHEN Zhuo, LIANG Yi, JIN Fengjun. Simulation of city network accessibility and its influence on regional development pattern in China based on integrated land transport system [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(2): 183-193.
[2]	JIANG Wanbei, LIU Weidong, LIU Zhigao, HAN Mengyao. Inequality and driving forces of energy-related CO₂ emissions intensity in China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(9): 1425-1435.
[3]	HUANG Yingze, QIU Bingwen, HE Yuhua, ZHANG Ke, ZOU Fengli. Optimal elevation interval of rice expansion in Northeast China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(9): 1557-1564.
[4]	HU Guojian, LU Yuqi. Progress, thoughts, and prospect of urban network research based on enterprise perspective [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(9): 1587-1596.
[5]	FU Zhanhui, MEI Lin, ZHENG Rumin, WANG Tongtong. Spatial differentiation mechanism of urban female employment rate in Northeast China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(8): 1308-1318.
[6]	ZHU Shengjun, HUANG Yongyuan, HU Xiaohui. Research framework and prospect of industrial value chain upgrading and spatial upgrading based on a multiple scale perspective [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(8): 1367-1384.
[7]	DU Xinru, LU Zi, LI Renjie, DONG Yaqing, GAO Wei. Estimation of time delay cost of hub airports in China, air routes effect and comparison with the United States [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(7): 1160-1171.
[8]	CHENG Hanbei, ZOU You, LIN Sainan, LI Zhigang. Review of recent research on the impacts of residential mobility on health [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(7): 1210-1223.
[9]	LIU Xiaopeng, CHENG Jing, ZHAO Xiaoyong, MIAO Hong, WEI Jingyi, ZENG Duan, MA Cunxia. Sustainable poverty reduction of China in a view of development geography [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(6): 892-901.
[10]	ZHOU Guohua, ZHANG Rujiao, HE Yanhua, DAI Liuyan, ZHANG Li. Optimization of rural settlements and the governance of rural relative poverty [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(6): 902-912.
[11]	TAN Xuelan, JIANG Lingxiao, WANG Zhenkai, AN Yue, CHEN Min, REN Hui. Rural poverty in China from the perspective of geography: Origin, progress, and prospect [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(6): 913-923.
[12]	DING Jianjun, WANG Zhang, LIU Yanhong, YU Fangwei. Measurement of economic resilience of contiguous poverty-stricken areas in China and influencing factor analysis [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(6): 924-937.
[13]	GUO Jianke, HOU Yajie, HE Yao. Characteristics of change of the China-Europe port shipping network under the Belt and Road Initiative [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(5): 716-726.
[14]	SUN Na, ZHANG Meiqing. Network structure and evolution characteristics of cities in China based on high-speed railway transport flow [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(5): 727-737.
[15]	DU Delin, WANG Jiaoe, WANG Yi. Market structure and competition of the three major airlines in China [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(3): 367-376.