PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 626-634.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.05.010

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Urban land expansion in Fuzhou City based on coupled cellular automata and agent-based models (CA-ABM)

Baofen CHEN1(), Yaomin ZHANG1, Dong JIANG2,*()   

  1. 1. Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710045, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2016-09-01 Online:2017-05-20 Published:2017-05-20
  • Contact: Dong JIANG E-mail:1244910426@qq.com;jiangd@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571509;Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-1

Abstract:

Fuzhou City is an important gateway west of the South China Sea. This study uses geographically weighted regression (GWR) as the transformation rules of cellular automata (CA) layer based on the multi-level constraint conditions, taking into account geographical location, natural factors, and the multi-criteria and willingness of various agents to make decisions on environmental change, to simulate urban land expansion of Fuzhou City from 2000 to 2015. Using the urban land use data derived from remote sensing imageries of Fuzhou City in 2000-2015 as a reference, and with the help of GIS spatial analysis technology, this study developed an improved model of urban land expansion based on coupled CA and ABM. The traditional and improved CA-ABM models were used to simulate urban land expansion and change with a microscopic view for Fuzhou City in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 from multiple angles and at multiple levels. The results show that the overall accuracy of the traditional and improved CA-ABM models was higher than 80%, and the simulation results based on the CA-ABM models for Fuzhou City are reliable. The point-to-point overall accuracy and Kappa of the improved CA-ABM model were higher than the traditional CA-ABM model, and the results of the improved CA-ABM model were closer to the actual distribution of urban land expansion in Fuzhou. It indicates that the improved CA-ABM model can be used to simulate urban land expansion, more accurately expresses a variety of geographic processes and mechanisms, and improves the reliability and stability of the simulation results. Finally, a forecast of the distribution of urban land expansion in 2020 and 2030 based on the improved CA-ABM model with scenario natural, economic, and social developments in Fuzhou provides an important theoretical and technical support for the urban land use planning of the city.

Key words: urban expansion, cellular automata (CA), agent-based model (ABM), CA-ABM model, Fuzhou