PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 286-295.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.03.003

• Special Issue: Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Paradigm and prospects of emergent evaluation of post-disaster resource and environmental carrying capacity for reconstruction planning

Kan ZHOU1,2(), Jie FAN1,2, Yong XU1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2017-02-01 Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41501139, No.41630644;Service Project on the Cultivation and Construction for the Characteristic Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.TSYJS04;Science and Technology Service Network Initiative of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KFJ-STS-ZDTP-021

Abstract:

Based on the application requirements of post-disaster resource and environmental carrying capacity evaluation for national reconstruction planning after the occurrence of major natural disasters, the main difficulties of emergent evaluation of post-disaster resource and environmental carrying capacity are analyzed, and the paradigm and technical process of such evaluation are preliminarily established under the multiple constraints of limited supply of resources, limited environmental capacity, protection of ecological security, and reduction of disaster risks. Moreover, the future prospects of post-disaster resource and environmental carrying capacity research and emergent evaluation are put forward. The results show that: In view of the limited time for performing such emergent evaluation, the broad range of factors to be considered in the evaluation, high decision risk, strong uncertainty, insufficient data base, and other challenges, emergent evaluation of carrying capacity should focus on the following four aspects: prediction of regional function and construction of index system, evaluation of individual factors and creation of technical criteria, integrated evaluation and reconstruction zoning, and estimation of population capacity and reconstruction model development. In the future, it is necessary to further deepen post-disaster carrying capacity research and emergent evaluation in the following areas: research on critical thresholds and parameters of emergent evaluation of post-disaster carrying capacity for reconstruction planning, design and research of auxiliary support system and planning convergence technology, research on the evolutionary characteristics and resilience of post-disaster carrying capacity, and research on high risk areas of natural disasters and countermeasures, especially in the periphery and surrounding mountainous areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, in order to improve the speed, standardization, and precision of post-disaster emergent evaluation, and provide some references for strengthening the national and local governments' post-disaster response capability.

Key words: resource and environmental carrying capacity, reconstruction planning, emergent evaluation, natural disasters, paradigm