基于多维视角的“城市病”诊断分析及其风险预估研究进展与发展趋势

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.02.009

Abstract

Abstract:

Due to the dynamic, interactive, and coupling relationship between urbanization and the ecological environment in urban areas, the study of urban problem in megacities is becoming increasingly complex and has become a hotspot area of research in China and internationally. A comprehensive understanding of the complex interaction between urbanization and the ecological environment is beneficial for revealing the mechanism and developing methods and techniques of diagnostic analysis and risk prediction of urban problems in megacity regions. Focusing on the questions of causes-diagnosis-risk prediction of urban problems, this article reviewed the progress of studies on diagnostic analysis and risk prediction of urban problems from multidimensional perspectives and identified the research trend. First, we summarized the causes of urban problems from three theoretical perspectives, including the coupling and coercing mechanism between urbanization and eco-environment, urban metabolism disorder, and loss of ecosystem services. Then, we reviewed the two approaches of urban problem diagnosis: assessment of urban health by index; and measurement of urban metabolism by ecological thermodynamic indicators. Third, we reviewed the research on risk prediction of urban problems from single risks and comprehensive risk. Finally, we identified several key issues and potential research directions based on the existing studies. Further study should be improved with regard to data acquisition and model simulation in order to study urban or urban agglomeration problems comprehensively. Such research will facilitate comprehensive geographic study and provide an important practical method for the study of human-environment relationship.

Key words: urban problem, urbanization, diagnostic analysis, risk prediction, progress and prospect

Xiaoyue WANG, Shuangcheng LI. Progress and prospects of diagnostic analysis and risk prediction of urban problems based on multiple perspectives[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(2): 231-243.

Figures/Tables 2

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研究视角	基本思路与方法	研究数据	研究尺度	不足与局限
城镇化与生态环境交互耦合	运用统计分析方法、耦合协调度模型,分析城镇化与生态环境的交互胁迫作用和耦合关系	统计数据、遥感影像数据	城市	城镇化对自然系统多要素(水、土、能源等)的胁迫作用、生态环境对城镇化过程的约束作用、城镇化与生态环境耦合机理研究较少
城市代谢	通过跟踪城市系统中物质或能量的输入、转换、输出过程,探讨城市系统代谢特征及其驱动因素	统计数据	国家、城市	所需数据量大,数据精度高,很多城市和地区现有数据难以满足
生态系统服务	运用生态足迹、生态系统服务足迹模型揭示人类需求和自然承载力之间的差距以及这种差距所产生的生态环境影响	统计数据、遥感影像数据	地区、城市	缺乏对社会经济系统与生态系统服务耦合过程及其机制的研究

诊断方法	诊断理念	诊断思路	诊断模型与指标	诊断结果
基于指标体系的城市健康评价	还原论	将城市系统分解成几个子系统,通过子系统统计指标的组合得到城市的总体健康程度	构建综合评价数学模型和指标体系,指标选取和权重设置存在主观性	研究之间可比性较差
基于生态热力学指标的城市代谢测度	系统论	将城市视为一个生命机体,应用生态热力学指标测度其代谢和健康状况	引入已有的或改进的能值、?值等生态热力学指标来描述城市健康状况	研究之间具有可比性

Progress and prospects of diagnostic analysis and risk prediction of urban problems based on multiple perspectives

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