京津冀地区人口规模调控政策参数化路径与系统模拟

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.004

Abstract

Abstract:

As a most influential measure to achieve regional sustainable development and transformation strategies, coordinated regulation and control policies are drawing increasing attentions from scientists and policymakers. It is important to understand the mechanisms of policy performance and systematically estimate the effects before making regional development decisions. However, a number of problems have arisen during the formulation and implementation of current policies, such as lack of specific targeted policy orientation, unclear policy maneuverability, uncertain policy interaction mechanisms, and vague policy impacts, which all hindered the effective implementation of policy objectives. The crux of the problem lies in the lack of policy parameters that can bridge the gap between directive policy objectives and specific management practices, and between specific policy measures and system responses. Thus, this study proposes a framework of policy parameterization, which includes four steps: refining policy indicators, quantifying policy parameters, identifying regulatory regions, and modeling. Taking the regional population regulation and control of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example, this study implemented the policy parameterization framework in the system dynamic (SD) model of population regulation and control of the study area. The results show that: (1) The policy parameterization method has well represented the policy functional process by integrating with the SD model. (2) The trend of population regulation changes in the case study area indicates that population migration control policy had limited effect on the population dynamics. Only by improving the regional population carrying capacity, system sustainability can be achieved. (3) The parameterization method is able to specify policy implementation practices by providing specific indicators and their regulation intervals, and further providing a basis for scenario analysis and strategy optimization. Thus it can be a useful tool for directing regional regulatory policy making.

Key words: regional coordinated development, policy parameterization, population regulation and control, system dynamic model, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Xiaoqian LIU, Ting MA, Tao PEI, Xiangdong WANG, Yunyan DU, Chuanjie XIE. Parameterization and system dynamics modeling of regional population regulation policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(1): 34-45.

Figures/Tables 4

Fig.1

Tab.1

Parameter of policies and its regulation interval"

政策类别	参数名称	符号	初始值	对应公式	调控区间	数据来源/参考文献
人口自然增长调控政策	人口出生率	B	11.5‰	式(5)	6‰~15‰	区域统计数据
	人口死亡率	D	6‰	式(5)	4.5‰~9.1‰	区域统计数据
	生育政策	Child_i	1	式(6)	1, 2, 3	国家政策
	性别比例	$R ′$	1.13	式(7)	1.04~1.35	区域统计数据
	65岁以上老年人口系数	C_>65	7.8%	式(9)	7.8%~22.0%	(袁小平等, 2014; 文先明等, 2015)
城镇化与建设用地扩张政策	城乡人口迁移速率	μ	0.025	式(10)	0.01~0.05	(叶裕民等, 2008)
	土地城镇化速率	V	0.008	式(11)	0.001~0.028	(匡文慧等, 2011; 刘翠玲等, 2015)
	人均建设用地面积	au	105 m²/人	式(11)	92~200 m²/人	京津冀城镇群协调发展规划(2008-2020)
产业结构调整政策	GDP增长速率	u	6%	式(14)	4%~16%	区域统计数据
	一二三产业产值比重	U	0.08、0.45、0.47	式(14)	0.06~0.2、0.3~0.6、0.4~0.8	区域统计数据
	一二三产业单位劳动产出效率	1/T	0.93、6.28、5.53万元/人	式(12)	0.9~3、6~13、5~12万元/人	区域统计数据
行业疏解政策	行业产值调整系数	$Δx$	10%	式(18)	5%~30%	(王继源等, 2015)
行业疏解政策	人均公路道路面积	d	10.55 m²/人	式(23)	10~20 m²/人	京津冀城镇群协调发展规划(2008-2020)
生态承载力调控政策	均衡因子	EQF	2.525	式(25)	0.5~2.8	(许月卿, 2007)
	人均生态足迹	ef	2.025 gha/人	式(26)	1.7~5.0 gha/人	(胡孟春等, 2003; 吴燕等, 2011; 杜悦悦等, 2016)
	生态补偿覆盖度	EC	0.05	式(27)	0~1	(张贵等, 2016)

Tab.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

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Parameterization and system dynamics modeling of regional population regulation policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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