PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 34-45.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.004
• Special Issue:Coordinated Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei • Previous Articles Next Articles
Xiaoqian LIU1,2(), Ting MA2, Tao PEI2,*(
), Xiangdong WANG2,3, Yunyan DU2, Chuanjie XIE2
Received:
2016-12-01
Online:
2017-01-20
Published:
2017-01-20
Contact:
Tao PEI
E-mail:liuxq@lreis.ac.cn;peit@lreis.ac.cn
Supported by:
Xiaoqian LIU, Ting MA, Tao PEI, Xiangdong WANG, Yunyan DU, Chuanjie XIE. Parameterization and system dynamics modeling of regional population regulation policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(1): 34-45.
Tab.1
Parameter of policies and its regulation interval"
政策类别 | 参数名称 | 符号 | 初始值 | 对应公式 | 调控区间 | 数据来源/参考文献 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
人口自然增长调控政策 | 人口出生率 | B | 11.5‰ | 式(5) | 6‰~15‰ | 区域统计数据 |
人口死亡率 | D | 6‰ | 式(5) | 4.5‰~9.1‰ | 区域统计数据 | |
生育政策 | Childi | 1 | 式(6) | 1, 2, 3 | 国家政策 | |
性别比例 | 1.13 | 式(7) | 1.04~1.35 | 区域统计数据 | ||
65岁以上老年人口系数 | C>65 | 7.8% | 式(9) | 7.8%~22.0% | (袁小平等, 2014; 文先明等, 2015) | |
城镇化与建设用地扩张政策 | 城乡人口迁移速率 | μ | 0.025 | 式(10) | 0.01~0.05 | (叶裕民等, 2008) |
土地城镇化速率 | V | 0.008 | 式(11) | 0.001~0.028 | (匡文慧等, 2011; 刘翠玲等, 2015) | |
人均建设用地面积 | au | 105 m2/人 | 式(11) | 92~200 m2/人 | 京津冀城镇群协调发展规划(2008-2020) | |
产业结构调整政策 | GDP增长速率 | u | 6% | 式(14) | 4%~16% | 区域统计数据 |
一二三产业产值比重 | U | 0.08、0.45、0.47 | 式(14) | 0.06~0.2、0.3~0.6、0.4~0.8 | 区域统计数据 | |
一二三产业单位劳动产出效率 | 1/T | 0.93、6.28、5.53万元/人 | 式(12) | 0.9~3、6~13、5~12万元/人 | 区域统计数据 | |
行业疏解 政策 | 行业产值调整系数 | 10% | 式(18) | 5%~30% | (王继源等, 2015) | |
人均公路道路面积 | d | 10.55 m2/人 | 式(23) | 10~20 m2/人 | 京津冀城镇群协调发展规划(2008-2020) | |
生态承载力调控政策 | 均衡因子 | EQF | 2.525 | 式(25) | 0.5~2.8 | (许月卿, 2007) |
人均生态足迹 | ef | 2.025 gha/人 | 式(26) | 1.7~5.0 gha/人 | (胡孟春等, 2003; 吴燕等, 2011; 杜悦悦等, 2016) | |
生态补偿覆盖度 | EC | 0.05 | 式(27) | 0~1 | (张贵等, 2016) |
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