城市与区域定量研究进展

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.12.001

Abstract

Abstract:

This article systematically reviews some quantitative research methods about urbanization, including mathematical and simulation models of the process of urbanization, single urban growth models (cellular automata, agent and multi-agent), system dynamics model and simulation of urbanization, spatial computable general equilibrium model of urbanization, and integrated multi-model system of urbanization. The article concludes that before 1950, the main method of urbanization forecast was time series model that predicts urbanization trend based on historical data. During the 1960s, the main method was mathematical statistics model and population statistics model; regression model was also applied in urbanization research. During the 1970s, with the development of system science, system analysis method contributed to the creation of transportation, population, and land use models, which all facilitated in-depth analysis of urbanization. Since 1990, access to urbanization data has been greatly improved and data-intensive simulation models expanded the scope and depth of urbanization research. In recent years, integrated multi-model system becomes a popular research area because of the breakthrough in spatial data mining, big data, cloud computing, and large-scale model system.

Key words: urban, region, quantitative research, mathematical model, cellular automata, multi-agent system, numerical economic model, system dynamics model

Chaolin GU, Yue ZHANG, Wei ZHAI, Weihua GUAN, Qiang LI, Na ZHAO, Chen LIU. Progress in urban and regional quantitative research[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(12): 1433-1446.

Figures/Tables 5

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年份	全国人口/万	市镇人口/万	城镇化水平/%
2020	137940	84452.4	61.24
2030	143680	93986.2	65.41
2040	146110	101036.6	69.15
2050	144970	105949.2	73.08

名称	开发机构	特点	开发语言	版权许可	网址
SWARM	圣塔菲研究所(SFI)	该模型中包含系列仿真库,系统整体而言使用性能良好,能够实现图像界面与模型设置的独立,但是对于模型中的错误辨识能力不足。	Objective C	共享/免费	http：//wiki.swarm.org
Java SWARM	圣塔菲研究所(SFI)	该模型是基于Java语言开发的,实现了与Java用户的对接,但是问题是不能将Objective C更好地融入其中。	Java	开源	http：//wiki.swarm.org

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