PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (7): 793-805.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.07.001

• Articles •     Next Articles

Scenario simulation and control of metropolitan outskirts urban growth based on constrained CA:A case study of Jiangxia District of Wuhan City

Haijun WANG1,2(), Chang XIA1, Anqi ZHANG1,3, Yu DENG4   

  1. 1. School of Resource and Environmental Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Systems, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
    3. School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China
    4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2015-10-01 Revised:2016-05-01 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-07-20
  • Supported by:
    Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571384, No.71433008; Fund for Fostering Talents in Basic Science of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.J1103409; Land Resources Survey and Evaluation Project of Ministry of Land and Resources of China, No.DCPJ161207-01]


In the process of rapid urbanization in China, metropolitan outskirts are areas where land use change most frequently occurred and human-nature relationship most complex, and it is very important to understand changes in land management and urban planning in these areas. Constrained Cellular Automata (constrained CA) can simulate complicated urban dynamic changes in accordance with certain simple rules and has become an important tool in the study of spatiotemporal changes of urban land use. Using land use data of Jiangxia District of Wuhan City collected in 2007 and 2011, this study incorporated considerations such as overall land use planning index, strategic arrangement of urban spatial development, and land use constrains into the transition rules of Cellular Automata. Then the logistic regression method was employed to determine the influencing factors of city spatial development and a constrained CA model was established to simulate scenario urban construction of Jiangxia District in 2020. The findings were compared with the prediction of forecast-CA. The simulation results show that: (1) Jiangxia District gradually absorbs some of the functions and population of the city center during the study period, but the urban expansion and land use is of low efficiency. The population of the study area will not grow significantly and the expansion of the area will not ease the high population pressure in the city center. (2) Constrained CA is able to depict a vivid picture of the layout and structure of small towns in metropolitan outskirts and is suitable for land use planning and urban planning. (3) Overlay analysis of the results of scenario simulations can identify the key monitoring areas of land use supervision and provide warning messages for the supervision and control of illegal land use.

Key words: constrained Cellular Automata (constrained CA), metropolitan outskirt, urban growth, scenario simulation, land use supervision, Jiangxia District of Wuhan City