基于约束性CA的大都市郊区城镇增长的情景模拟与管控——以武汉市江夏区为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.07.001

Abstract

Abstract:

In the process of rapid urbanization in China, metropolitan outskirts are areas where land use change most frequently occurred and human-nature relationship most complex, and it is very important to understand changes in land management and urban planning in these areas. Constrained Cellular Automata (constrained CA) can simulate complicated urban dynamic changes in accordance with certain simple rules and has become an important tool in the study of spatiotemporal changes of urban land use. Using land use data of Jiangxia District of Wuhan City collected in 2007 and 2011, this study incorporated considerations such as overall land use planning index, strategic arrangement of urban spatial development, and land use constrains into the transition rules of Cellular Automata. Then the logistic regression method was employed to determine the influencing factors of city spatial development and a constrained CA model was established to simulate scenario urban construction of Jiangxia District in 2020. The findings were compared with the prediction of forecast-CA. The simulation results show that: (1) Jiangxia District gradually absorbs some of the functions and population of the city center during the study period, but the urban expansion and land use is of low efficiency. The population of the study area will not grow significantly and the expansion of the area will not ease the high population pressure in the city center. (2) Constrained CA is able to depict a vivid picture of the layout and structure of small towns in metropolitan outskirts and is suitable for land use planning and urban planning. (3) Overlay analysis of the results of scenario simulations can identify the key monitoring areas of land use supervision and provide warning messages for the supervision and control of illegal land use.

Key words: constrained Cellular Automata (constrained CA), metropolitan outskirt, urban growth, scenario simulation, land use supervision, Jiangxia District of Wuhan City

Haijun WANG, Chang XIA, Anqi ZHANG, Yu DENG. Scenario simulation and control of metropolitan outskirts urban growth based on constrained CA:A case study of Jiangxia District of Wuhan City[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(7): 793-805.

Figures/Tables 9

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空间变量	参数值		数据	空间变量	参数值		数据
空间变量	全要素法		数据	后退法		全要素法	后退法
一级镇距离	-4.1712	-3.6130		主干道距离	-10.0329	-9.7699
二级镇距离	6.0128	5.7475		高速公路距离	1.9001	1.9052
三级镇距离	2.8394	3.0808		规划主干道	—	—
四级镇距离	-0.0338	0.0000		规划高速公路	—	—
区中心距离	-3.5039	-3.6449		常量	-1.5174	-1.5697
铁路距离	0.5293	0.0000

政策	定量依据	空间解析	范围/m	权重
“依托主城”	综合测度武汉市主城区与江夏城区之间的空间距离及路网联系	武汉市主城区边界向南做缓冲区	0~2000	0.25
“依托主城”	综合测度武汉市主城区与江夏城区之间的空间距离及路网联系	武汉市主城区边界向南做缓冲区	2000~5000	0.15
“确保中心”	武汉市及纸坊新城规划图件与文本	纸坊新城中心向东方向做扇形缓冲区	0~3000	0.25
“确保中心”	武汉市及纸坊新城规划图件与文本	纸坊新城中心向东方向做扇形缓冲区	3000~5000	0.15
“三区两轴”	轴线影响范围=城镇用地面积/轴长	发展轴线向两侧做缓冲区	0~2000	0.15
“轨道交通”	已有文献经验与实地调研	地铁线路向两侧做缓冲区	0~1000	0.30

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Scenario simulation and control of metropolitan outskirts urban growth based on constrained CA:A case study of Jiangxia District of Wuhan City

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