PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (8): 976-986.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.08.005

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Simulation and projection of land-use change in Beijing under different scenarios

HAN Huiran(), YANG Chengfeng, SONG Jinping*()   

  1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Online:2015-08-25 Published:2015-08-25
  • Contact: SONG Jinping E-mail:hanhuiran@163.com;jinpingsong@163.com

Abstract:

Land-use change is a dynamic process through which human and natural systems interact and the link between social economic activities and ecological processes, and plays an important role in the understanding of human-environment relationship. It has important implications for land management, therefore exploring the many factors influencing land use and land cover has been the focus of scientific study across multiple disciplines, locations, and scales. Simulation of land use spatial pattern under different scenarios may reveal the driving factors of regional land-use change spatially, which is an important way to analyze future land-use demand. In this study, using Beijing as an example we examined characteristics of land-use change and simulated future land-use demand by a CLUE-S model, and identified related driving factors using a Logistic model combine with land use data extracted from remote sensing images in 1985, 2000, and 2010. We simulated the land use requirements of Beijing in 2020 under different scenarios based on economic and social development, land use planning, resources and ecological protection and other conditions. The results are as follows: (1) different driving factors resulted in some different changes in various land-use types. Transportation and socioeconomic factors may have played an important role in the conversion of land-use types especially through affecting accessibility to the administrative center and level of urbanization. The effect of topographic factors, slope in particular, on land-use types is clear, with higher slope conducive to forest land and lower slope for other land-use types.(2) Consistency between the projected and actual land-use situations is high—the kappa index is 0.87. (3) Comparison of simulated land-use changes under various scenarios shows that future land use differs under different scenarios. Spatial pattern of land use in Beijing is optimized to a certain degree under the ecological protection and water resources conservation scenario, which promotes rational expansion of construction land. Under the natural development scenario land use should be based on the Land Use Plan to ensure the sustainability of land resources by setting urban growth boundary and so on.

Key words: Land-use change, spatial pattern, scenario simulation, CLUE-S model, Beijing