中国地震灾害中

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.07.013

Abstract

Abstract:

The ratio of the number of injured people to fatalities in earthquakes not only reflects the vulnerability of countries or regions in earthquakes, but also is useful for the estimation of injured people, which is of great importance for emergency rescue. The ratio of injured people to fatalities is often represented by a fixed number in existing research, but disparity of these ratios from different earthquakes is clear. By analyzing the correlation between the number of injured people in earthquakes and fatalities, this study establishes regression models using the injured people and fatalities data in China since 1989. The models are tested and used to predict the ratio of injured people to fatalities in earthquakes with different levels of fatalities. The results show that: (1) There is a significant positive correlation between the number of injured people and fatalities in earthquakes, not only for China, but also worldwide. (2) Power function can better reflect the relationship between the number of injured people in earthquakes and fatalities in China. Large fatalities are always accompanied by low ratio of injured people to fatalities. The models and the calculated ratio of injured people to fatalities in this article provide an alternative method to estimate the number of injured people in earthquakes.

Key words: seismic disaster, loss assessment, the ratio of injured people to fatalities, regression analysis, China

Shaohong WU, Jing JIN, Jingyun ZHENG. Estimation of the ratio of injured people to fatalities in earthquakes in China[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(7): 918-925.

Figures/Tables 12

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区域(国家)	500-1899年	1900-1949年	1950-1969年	1970-1985年	1986-2008年
世界	1.2(72)	2.8(121)	5.4(139)	4.3(104)	6.9(190)
发展中国家(不包括中国)	—	—	3.0(45)	3.2(23)	4.8(53)
工业化国家	—	—	8.8(44)	—	11.2(20)
中国	—	—	2.5(35)	—	12.8(35)
日本	—	—	6.6(21)	—	47.5(6)
拉丁美洲	—	—	—	2.6(12)	8.0(11)
土耳其,伊朗	—	—	2.6(19)	—	3.6(26)
希腊	—	—	18.6(9)	—	11.2(5)
意大利	—	—	3.9(8)	—	7.0(5)

函数	R²	修正R²	函数	R²	修正R²
线性函数	0.643	0.632	指数函数	0.440	0.423
对数函数	0.580	0.567	Logistic曲线	0.440	0.423
幂函数	0.482	0.465	复合函数	0.440	0.423
增长函数	0.440	0.423	S形曲线	0.417	0.399

地震	震中烈度	实际受伤人数/人	死亡人数/人	线性函数估值/人	相对误差	对数函数估值/人	相对误差	幂函数估值/人	相对误差
20060621甘肃文县	Ⅵ	19	1	34	0.769	0	1.000	1	0.947
20060825云南盐津	Ⅵ	67	2	60	0.098	29	0.561	32	0.526
20070603云南宁洱	Ⅷ	419	3	85	0.797	88	0.791	65	0.844
20080820云南盈江	Ⅷ	130	5	131	0.009	217	0.667	132	0.018
20080830四川仁和	Ⅷ	1010	41	778	0.230	1573	0.557	975	0.035
20090709云南楚雄	Ⅷ	372	1	34	0.910	0	1.000	1	0.997
20100131四川遂宁	Ⅶ	16	1	34	1.101	0	1.000	1	0.938
20110310云南盈江	Ⅷ	314	25	512	0.630	1121	2.569	659	1.098
20120624云南宁蒗	Ⅶ	442	4	109	0.754	152	0.656	99	0.776
20120907云南彝良	Ⅷ	834	81	1384	0.659	2345	1.811	1594	0.911
20130420四川芦山	Ⅸ	13019	196	2923	0.776	3620	0.722	2834	0.782
20130722甘肃岷县	Ⅷ	2414	95	1584	0.344	2551	0.057	1777	0.264
20130831云南香格里拉	Ⅷ	63	3	85	0.352	88	0.391	65	0.034
平均相对误差					0.571		0.906		0.629

地震	震中烈度	实际受伤人数/人	线性函数估值/人	相对误差	对数函数估值/人	相对误差	幂函数估值/人	相对误差
20060621甘肃文县	Ⅵ	19	34	0.814	0	1.000	1	0.947
20060825云南盐津	Ⅵ	67	60	0.100	42	0.372	52	0.229
20070603云南宁洱	Ⅷ	419	84	0.800	110	0.738	94	0.776
20080820云南盈江	Ⅷ	130	126	0.028	244	0.874	165	0.268
20080830四川仁和	Ⅷ	1010	690	0.317	1392	0.378	730	0.277
20090709云南楚雄	Ⅷ	372	34	0.907	0	1.000	1	0.997
20100131四川遂宁	Ⅶ	16	34	1.154	0	1.000	1	0.938
20110310云南盈江	Ⅷ	314	463	0.474	1033	2.290	551	0.753
20120624云南宁蒗	Ⅶ	442	106	0.761	179	0.596	131	0.703
20120907云南彝良	Ⅷ	834	1196	0.433	1976	1.370	1034	0.240
20130420四川芦山	Ⅸ	13019	2439	0.813	2895	0.778	1544	0.881
20130722甘肃岷县	Ⅷ	2414	1360	0.437	2129	0.118	1116	0.538
20130831云南香格里拉	Ⅷ	63	84	0.328	110	0.745	94	0.490
平均相对误差				0.567		0.866		0.618

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Estimation of the ratio of injured people to fatalities in earthquakes in China

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