PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (6): 749-760.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.06.010
• Ecology and Environment • Previous Articles Next Articles
Lei DING1, Yalin HUANG2, Yunlang LIU1, Chao LIU2, Shenggao CHENG1,*
Received:
2014-07-01
Revised:
2015-01-01
Online:
2015-06-15
Published:
2015-06-15
Contact:
Shenggao CHENG
Lei DING, Yalin HUANG, Yunlang LIU, Chao LIU, Shenggao CHENG. Spatiotemporal variability of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China, 1995-2012[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(6): 749-760.
Tab.1
Estimations of Moran′s I for the environmental pollution incidents in China based on Monte Carlo method"
年份 | Moran's I | E(I) | Sd. | p(I) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1995 | 0.003 | -0.03 | 0.104 | 0.365 |
1996 | -0.046 | -0.03 | 0.105 | 0.473 |
1997 | 0.013 | -0.03 | 0.098 | 0.302 |
1998 | -0.086 | -0.03 | 0.107 | 0.317 |
1999 | 0.081 | -0.03 | 0.104 | 0.134 |
2000 | 0.065 | -0.03 | 0.102 | 0.149 |
2001 | 0.232 | -0.03 | 0.099 | 0.016 |
2002 | 0.225 | -0.03 | 0.099 | 0.023 |
2003 | 0.154 | -0.03 | 0.103 | 0.055 |
2004 | 0.216 | -0.03 | 0.101 | 0.020 |
2005 | 0.169 | -0.03 | 0.104 | 0.037 |
2006 | 0.183 | -0.03 | 0.107 | 0.039 |
2007 | 0.019 | -0.03 | 0.105 | 0.287 |
2008 | 0.157 | -0.03 | 0.097 | 0.044 |
2009 | 0.156 | -0.03 | 0.087 | 0.031 |
2010 | 0.104 | -0.03 | 0.058 | 0.021 |
2011 | 0.096 | -0.03 | 0.053 | 0.014 |
2012 | 0.248 | -0.03 | 0.065 | 0.004 |
Tab.2
The center of environment pollution incidents in china, 1995-2012"
年份 | 重心坐标 | 重心移动 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
经度(L) | 纬度(B) | 转角/(θ/°) | 方向 | 距离/km | 速率/(km/a) | ||
1995 | 113.867 | 32.340 | 47.04 | ||||
1998 | 113.505 | 31.412 | 30.08 | 西南 | 117.67 | 39.22 | |
2001 | 111.306 | 29.570 | 36.79 | 西南 | 318.73 | 106.24 | |
2004 | 111.134 | 30.573 | 35.86 | 西北 | 113.07 | 37.69 | |
2007 | 114.384 | 32.505 | 31.98 | 东北 | 420.09 | 140.03 | |
2010 | 116.626 | 32.868 | 113.54 | 东北 | 252.35 | 84.12 | |
2012 | 116.122 | 32.547 | 106.25 | 西南 | 66.39 | 33.20 |
Tab.3
Correlation analysis between environmental pollution incidents and external factors"
主驱动力 | 载荷因素 | 全部环境污染事件 | 水污染事件 | 大气污染事件 | 固废污染事件 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
污染物排放水平 | 工业废水达标排放量 | -0.695** | -0.653** | —— | —— |
工业废气达标排放量 | -0.712** | —— | -0.706** | —— | |
工业固废综合利用量 | -0.738** | —— | —— | -0.408 | |
经济发展水平 | 人均GDP | -0.801** | -0.735** | -0.794** | -0.396 |
工业企业数量 | -0.294 | -0.510** | -0.216 | -0.328 | |
第二产业增加值 | -0.801** | -0.735** | -0.794** | -0.396 | |
环境监管水平 | 环保机构总数 | -0.684** | -0.623** | -0.680** | -0.205 |
年末实有环保系统人数 | -0.801** | -0.735** | -0.794** | -0.396 | |
环境来信、来访次数 | -0.462 | -0.286 | -0.453 | -0.266 | |
环境控制水平 | 环境污染治理投入 | -0.808** | -0.737** | -0.796** | -0.405 |
环境法规或规章总数 | 0.871** | 0.832** | 0.861** | 0.514* | |
人大、政协的环境提案 | -0.528* | -0.434 | -0.531* | -0.120 |
Tab.4
Spatial panel model estimate results for the influencing factors of China's environmental pollution incidents"
变量 | Sar-Panel-FE | Sar-Panel-RE | Sem-Panel-FE | Sem-Panel-RE | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | t值 | 系数 | t值 | 系数 | t值 | 系数 | t值 | ||||
intercept | —— | 20.763443 | 1.5548 | 32.614146 | 2.1650** | ||||||
AGDP | 0.000793 | 2.2137** | 0.000319 | 1.0028 | 0.000864 | 1.9814** | 0.000086 | 0.2393 | |||
SI | -0.005093 | -3.3013*** | -0.003425 | -2.5099** | -0.006213 | -3.6951*** | -0.003292 | -2.2059** | |||
EPA | -0.100170 | -2.1890* | -0.006532 | -0.1875 | -0.175791 | -3.8935*** | -0.022315 | -0.6246 | |||
EW | 0.004680 | 1.0150 | 0.003033 | 1.3131 | 0.007079 | 1.5197 | 0.003913 | 1.4932 | |||
EPCI | -0.000085 | -2.5082* | -0.000060 | -1.7833* | -0.000064 | -1.7492* | -0.000058 | -1.578120 | |||
W*dep.var | 0.397992 | 6.4315*** | 0.399966 | 6.4559*** | —— | —— | |||||
spat.aut. | —— | —— | 0.470981 | 8.0239*** | 0.417684 | 6.4565*** | |||||
R2 | 0.5524 | 0.4991 | 0.4604 | 0.4961 | |||||||
corr-squared | 0.1200 | 0.0092 | 0.0927 | 0.0066 | |||||||
Hausman检验 | —— | -8.7936 | —— | -13.2997** | |||||||
LR检验 | 207.4469*** | 101.7929*** | 212.878*** | 97.3890*** | |||||||
log-likelihood | -1749.347 | -1802.174 | -1746.632 | -1804.376 |
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