1995-2012年中国突发性环境污染事件时空演化特征及影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.06.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Understanding the complexity of spatiotemporal variations of sudden environmental pollution incidents and quantifying the contribution of their driving factors are important for effective environmental management in China. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China for the period of 1995-2012 based on the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Spatial Econometric Panel Model. The results indicate that: the frequency of environmental pollution incidents was gradually declining after the initial fluctuating growth and the high-frequency areas were mainly concentrated in eastern and southwestern China; ESDA analysis revealed that China's environmental pollution incidents were random distributed from 1995 to 2000 and agglomerated after 2001; in recent years the high-frequency area focused on the Pan-Yangtze River Delta region; the high-frequency center moved rapidly in 1998-2001 and 2004-2007 as a consequence of the regional industrial transfer and high pollution discharge pressure, toward southwest and northeast. Environmental pollution incident was different from pollutant emissions and is not an inevitable outcome of economic development. It is mainly related to the level of pollution control, government environmental supervision ability, spatial effect, and other factors. As one of the most important factors influencing environmental pollution incidents, spatial effect mainly included the spatial proximity effect and spillover effect. In order to control environmental pollution incidents effectively, the government should formulate joint transboundary pollution incidents emergency response mechanisms within regions based on regional pollution diffusion and transfer.

Key words: sudden environmental pollution incidents, ESDA, temporal and spatial evolution characteristics, spatial effect, China

Lei DING, Yalin HUANG, Yunlang LIU, Chao LIU, Shenggao CHENG. Spatiotemporal variability of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China, 1995-2012[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(6): 749-760.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 33

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年份	Moran's I	E(I)	Sd.	p(I)
1995	0.003	-0.03	0.104	0.365
1996	-0.046	-0.03	0.105	0.473
1997	0.013	-0.03	0.098	0.302
1998	-0.086	-0.03	0.107	0.317
1999	0.081	-0.03	0.104	0.134
2000	0.065	-0.03	0.102	0.149
2001	0.232	-0.03	0.099	0.016
2002	0.225	-0.03	0.099	0.023
2003	0.154	-0.03	0.103	0.055
2004	0.216	-0.03	0.101	0.020
2005	0.169	-0.03	0.104	0.037
2006	0.183	-0.03	0.107	0.039
2007	0.019	-0.03	0.105	0.287
2008	0.157	-0.03	0.097	0.044
2009	0.156	-0.03	0.087	0.031
2010	0.104	-0.03	0.058	0.021
2011	0.096	-0.03	0.053	0.014
2012	0.248	-0.03	0.065	0.004

年份	重心坐标				重心移动
年份	经度(L)		纬度(B)	转角/(θ/°)	方向	距离/km	速率/(km/a)
1995	113.867	32.340	47.04
1998	113.505	31.412	30.08		西南	117.67	39.22
2001	111.306	29.570	36.79		西南	318.73	106.24
2004	111.134	30.573	35.86		西北	113.07	37.69
2007	114.384	32.505	31.98		东北	420.09	140.03
2010	116.626	32.868	113.54		东北	252.35	84.12
2012	116.122	32.547	106.25		西南	66.39	33.20

主驱动力	载荷因素	全部环境污染事件	水污染事件	大气污染事件	固废污染事件
污染物排放水平	工业废水达标排放量	-0.695^**	-0.653^**	——	——
	工业废气达标排放量	-0.712^**	——	-0.706^**	——
	工业固废综合利用量	-0.738^**	——	——	-0.408
经济发展水平	人均GDP	-0.801^**	-0.735^**	-0.794^**	-0.396
	工业企业数量	-0.294	-0.510^**	-0.216	-0.328
	第二产业增加值	-0.801^**	-0.735^**	-0.794^**	-0.396
环境监管水平	环保机构总数	-0.684^**	-0.623^**	-0.680^**	-0.205
	年末实有环保系统人数	-0.801^**	-0.735^**	-0.794^**	-0.396
	环境来信、来访次数	-0.462	-0.286	-0.453	-0.266
环境控制水平	环境污染治理投入	-0.808^**	-0.737^**	-0.796^**	-0.405
	环境法规或规章总数	0.871^**	0.832^**	0.861^**	0.514^*
	人大、政协的环境提案	-0.528^*	-0.434	-0.531^*	-0.120

变量	Sar-Panel-FE			Sar-Panel-RE		Sem-Panel-FE			Sem-Panel-RE
变量	系数		t值		系数	t值	系数	t值	系数	t值
intercept	——			20.763443	1.5548				32.614146	2.1650^**
AGDP	0.000793	2.2137^**		0.000319	1.0028	0.000864	1.9814^**		0.000086	0.2393
SI	-0.005093	-3.3013^***		-0.003425	-2.5099^**	-0.006213	-3.6951^***		-0.003292	-2.2059^**
EPA	-0.100170	-2.1890^*		-0.006532	-0.1875	-0.175791	-3.8935^***		-0.022315	-0.6246
EW	0.004680	1.0150		0.003033	1.3131	0.007079	1.5197		0.003913	1.4932
EPCI	-0.000085	-2.5082^*		-0.000060	-1.7833^*	-0.000064	-1.7492^*		-0.000058	-1.578120
Wdep.var*	0.397992	6.4315^***		0.399966	6.4559^***	——			——
spat.aut.	——			——		0.470981	8.0239^***		0.417684	6.4565^***
R²	0.5524			0.4991		0.4604					0.4961
R²	0.5524			0.4991		0.4604					0.4961	corr-squared	0.1200	0.0092	0.0927	0.0066
Hausman检验	——			-8.7936		——					-13.2997^**	corr-squared	0.1200	0.0092	0.0927	0.0066
Hausman检验	——			-8.7936		——					-13.2997^**	LR检验	207.4469^***	101.7929^***	212.878^***	97.3890^***
log-likelihood	-1749.347			-1802.174		-1746.632					-1804.376	LR检验	207.4469^***	101.7929^***	212.878^***	97.3890^***

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Spatiotemporal variability of sudden environmental pollution incidents and influencing factors in China, 1995-2012

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