基于复合情景的上海台风风暴潮灾害危险性模拟及其空间应对

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.013

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to study coastal flooding in Shanghai caused by typhoons following typical paths, the possible effects of the six severe typhoon storm surges were analyzed using MIKE21 Flow Model. Based on the probable maximum intensity of tropical cyclones and by taking into consideration sea level rise, topographic change, and seawalls subsidence, 12 scenarios were analyzed for potential storm surge impacts. The results show that, because of the high standard protective seawalls, the possibility of overtopping inundation resulting from storm surges is extremely low under the present condition. However, as the strength of influencing factors increases over time, overtopping inundation becomes more likely. In 2040, the inundation caused by a tropical cyclone landing in Shanghai can be very large, and water depth can reach 3.0 meters or more in some local areas. About 25% of seawalls would be at risk of flooding , and the inundation area of the storm surges can reach 910 km² under the proposed scenarios. Storm surge disaster prevention measures include protecting the source areas of water supply to the city, creating urban flood retention space, increasing the protection standard of seawalls, enhancing the drainage capability of the city, and optimizing the distribution of the emergency shelters.

Key words: storm surge, scenario simulation, MIKE21 FM, hazard analysis, spatial countermeasure, Shanghai

CLC Number:

Chengcheng SONG, Mengya LI, Jun WANG, Shiyuan XU, Zhenlou CHEN. Simulation of typhoon storm surge impacts in Shanghai based on storm surge scenarios and disaster prevention measures[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(12): 1692-1703.

Figures/Tables 13

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年份	TC路径	淹没面积/km²
年份	TC路径	0~0.5m	0.5~1.2m	1.2~3m	>3m	合计
2010	TC5612-1	58.99	13.93	24.15	14.99	112.06
2010	TC5612-2	116.79	15.52	26.54	5.73	164.58
2040	TC5612-1	374.70	70.10	41.81	25.77	512.38
2040	TC5612-2	712.95	98.82	75.87	21.89	909.53

年份	TC路径	淹没面积/km²
年份	TC路径	0~0.5 m	0.5~1.2 m	1.2~3 m	>3 m	合计
2010	TC5612-3	70.37	21.94	7.61	0.11	100.03
2010	TC5612-4	53.05	14.40	4.93	0.06	72.44
2040	TC5612-3	335.05	85.85	62.77	9.12	492.79
2040	TC5612-4	113.53	38.16	18.74	4.62	175.05

年份	TC路径	淹没面积/km²
年份	TC路径	0~0.5 m	0.5~1.2 m	1.2~3 m	>3 m	合计
2010	TC0012-5	48.49	5.24	12.34	0.05	66.13
2010	TC8114-5	50.72	5.52	12.80	0.05	69.09
2040	TC0012-5	82.28	7.88	2.73	1.00	93.89
2040	TC8114-5	99.87	21.91	22.80	9.07	153.65

Simulation of typhoon storm surge impacts in Shanghai based on storm surge scenarios and disaster prevention measures

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路径类型	TC模板	初始情景(2010年)				未来情景(2040年)
路径类型	TC模板	S		D	L	S	D	L
正面登陆类	TC5612-1	2010	2010	2010		2040	2040	2040
正面登陆类	TC5612-2	2010	2010	2010		2040	2040	2040
浙北登陆北上类	TC5612-3	2010	2010	2010		2040	2040	2040
浙北登陆北上类	TC5612-4	2010	2010	2010		2040		2040	2040
近海北上类	TC0012-5	2010	2010	2010	2040	2040	2040
近海北上类	TC8114-5	2010	2010	2010	2040		2040	2040

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