中国产业结构优化路径与碳排放趋势预测

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.001

Abstract

Abstract:

China has been experiencing profound adjustments in its industrial structure. Meanwhile, the industrial upgrade is also an important route to reducing its carbon emissions. This study analyzes the driving force of industrial structure change, that is, the demand of goods of each sector. With China's transition from a developing to a developed economy, the consuming preference of its citizens is expected to converge toward that of developed countries. Based on this assumption, we built a Multi-sector Intertemporal Dynamic Optimization (MIDO) model combining the neoclassic optimal economic growth theory and the input-output production structure model to project consumer preference oriented industrial structure change and carbon emission trends in China based on four scenarios of future development path of China. The simulation result indicates that the share of agriculture as well as food and clothes sectors will shrink, while the other services sector sees its share enlarging under all scenarios. In the business as usual scenario (Scen-China), the shares of heavy-manufacturing, transport, chemicals, and metals sectors continue to increase, while the shares of these energy intensive sectors decrease in the US type of consumption preference scenario (Scen-US). The shares of transport and chemicals will decline slightly in the EU type of consumption preference scenario (Scen-EU); and in the Japan type of consumption preference scenario (Scen-JP) the share of the transport sector will rise and the share of the metals sector will drop. Aggregated energy use of China will show an inversed-U shaped trend due to industrial structure change and energy efficiency improvement. The gross energy use in the Scen-China, Scen-EU, Scen-JP, and Scen-US scenarios will considerably decline from the peak value of 2810 Mtoe to 2166 Mtoe. Accordingly, the accumulated carbon emission will be in the range of 94 GtC to 72.6 GtC. The consuming preference pattern of US, due to its heavy reliance on the services sector, is better than that of JP, followed by EU and China from the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction.

Key words: industrial structure, carbon emission, consumption preference, MIDO model, intertemporal optimization, China

CLC Number:

F224

Yongbin ZHU, Zheng WANG. Projection of China’s industrial structure change and carbon emission trends[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(12): 1579-1586.

Figures/Tables 6

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References 17

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部门	中国	美国	欧盟	日本	部门	中国	美国	欧盟	日本
交通运输	0.0387	0.0175	0.0513	0.0477	农业	0.0605	0.0082	0.0106	0.0072
电力	0.0125	0.0101	0.0096	0.0112	衣食制造	0.1504	0.0483	0.0854	0.0664
采矿	0.0098	0.0017	0.0079	0.0027	轻工业	0.0995	0.0487	0.0997	0.0676
天然气	0.0006	0.0026	0.0015	0.0002	重工业	0.1812	0.0345	0.0780	0.0927
化工	0.0394	0.0264	0.0590	0.0308	建筑业	0.0056	0.0005	0.0059	0.0025
煤炭	0.0017	0.0003	0.0001	0.0000	其他服务业	0.3469	0.7798	0.5468	0.6411
金属	0.0355	0.0067	0.0290	0.0167
石油	0.0176	0.0148	0.0150	0.0132

Projection of China’s industrial structure change and carbon emission trends

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