面向灾害风险评估的台风风场模型研究综述

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.06.002

Abstract

Abstract: Quantitative probabilistic typhoon risk model needs a large number of wind samples as input. However, in many areas, historical observation data is inadequate in both spatial and temporal dimensions, which may introduce great bias into risk assessment results. Combined with stochastic track model, parametric wind field model can provide a large number of wind speed samples to quantify wind risk, thanks to its simplicity in computation and solid scientific foundation. According to the general process of typhoon wind modeling, in this paper, firstly the estimation methods of maximum wind speed, radius of maximum wind speed and Holland B parameter for wind field model are reviewed, and the progress in gradient wind field model and boundary layer model is illustrated. Secondly, the theories and applications of wind speed adjustment for surface roughness, terrain, gusts and sea-land transition are analyzed. Thirdly, major software systems with wind field components are also summarized. Finally, it is suggested that the integration of meteorology, wind engineering, oceanic and disaster risk sciences be enhanced. Surface roughness estimation by remote sensing, and terrain adjustment are proposed as priority research areas for China in the future.

Key words: disaster, risk assessment, typhoon, wind field model, wind speed adjustment

FANG Weihua, LIN Wei. A review on typhoon wind field modeling for disaster risk assessment[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2013, 32(6): 852-867.

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A review on typhoon wind field modeling for disaster risk assessment

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