PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 577-583.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.05.005

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Land Use and Ecosystem Service Values and Their Grey Forecast in Guizhou Province

LI Zheng1,2, WANG Jun1, BAI Zhongke1,2, GUO Yiqiang1, YU Li3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China;
    2. School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China;
    3. Beijing DiYi Shidai Land Planning and Design Company Ltd., Beijing 100089, China
  • Received:2012-01-01 Revised:2012-03-01 Online:2012-05-25 Published:2012-05-25

Abstract: Based on the land use change data in Guizhou province from 1996 to 2008, and by the evaluation ofecosystem service values, coefficient of sensitivity and grey forecast model, this paper estimated the changes inland use and ecosystem service values, and predicted the land use structure and ecosystem services values. Theresults are shown as follows. (1) During 1996 and 2008 in Guizhou province, the land use structures showed thatforest land, garden land, construction land and water body increased significantly, while cultivated land, grasslandand unused land showed a decreasing trend. (2) The total ecosystem services values in the study area in2008 is 5.908 billions yuan more than those in 1996, an increase of 3.01%. (3) The change rate of ecosystem servicesvalue of the northwestern part is much larger than that in the southeastern part of the study area. 4) The coefficient sensitivity analysis showed that the ecological value coefficients are reasonable, and the ecosystem servicevalues lack flexibility in the study area. (5) The land use structures of Guizhou province in 2015 and 2020 were predicted by using the GM (1, 1) model. The trend of woodland and construction land would maintain acontinual increase while the cultivated land a continual decrease in the ten years to come. The total ecosystem services value in 2020 would reach 21.19×108 yuan. The information entropy values of land use structure were1.4320 and 1.4331, respectively, implying that land use structures tend to be more and more balanced.

Key words: coefficient sensitivity, ecosystem service values, grey system, Guizhou province, land use