Abstract: Based on 255 worldwide intercity rail transit samples, this paper summarizes the spatial-temporal evolution and network characteristics of intercity rail transit, analyzes the correlation between intercity rail transit scale and metropolitan population, area and economic scale, and then constructs five regression models. Finally, it predicts the scale and layout of intercity rail transit in the Pearl River Delta of China by applying the models. The models indicate that that the scale of intercity rail is mostly related to regional economic scale, and less related to regional population and area scale. Meanwhile, there is exponential correlation between regional intercity rail scale per capita and regional GDP per capita as well as the population density. And the rail scale per capita is positively correlated to GDP per capita while negatively related to population density. According to the application of regression models, the planning scale of intercity rail transit in the Pearl River Delta is advanced comparing with the economic development while lagged comparing with the population development. In a short period of time, the intercity rail should connect the significant nodes in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan as well as the inner cities in other cities in the Pearl River Delta. In the long term, the rail line density should be increased in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai and Zhongshan, and the nodes number should be increased in the periphery cities including Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen.

Key words: intercity rail transit, metropolitan area, network, Pear River delta, scale