PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 1047-1055.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.08.012

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Driving and Pulling Simulation of Tourism on the Tertiary Industry in China since 1982

SU Jianjun1,2, SUN Gennian2, WANG Lifang1   

  1. 1. Department of Economic & Management Yun Cheng University, Yun Cheng 044000, China;
    2. College of Tourism & Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China
  • Received:2010-10-01 Revised:2011-02-01 Online:2011-08-25 Published:2011-08-25

Abstract: Tourism has a great effect on the growth of the tertiary industry. With a theoretical model and a framework for analysis, the paper uses non-stationary time series, Granger causality and elasticity coefficient methods and time series data from 1982 to 2008, and analyzes the linkage relationship between tourism development and the growth of tertiary industry. The results can be obtained as follows. (1) Time-series data shows that there is a long term linkage relationship between them. In addition, a single-direction Granger causality relation is found between inbound tourist and tertiary industry. Domestic tourism and tertiary industry also have Granger causality relations. Tourism development promotes the growth of tertiary industry, and inbound tourism development has greater effect on the tertiary industry than the domestic tourism. Inbound tourism and domestic tourism have certain impetus to each other. (2) The elasticity coefficients of inbound tourism to tertiary industry and the sectors of tertiary industry are 1.090079, 1.024949, 1.047349, 1.110070, 1.044185, 1.139565 and 1.177425 respectively, and the elasticity coefficients of domestic tourism to tertiary industry and the sectors of tertiary industry are 0.789943, 0.744285, 0.759301, 0.806053, 0.755764, 0.826966 and 0.855732 respectively. Inbound tourism development contributes to tertiary industry more than domestic tourism.

Key words: China, elasticity coefficient, Granger causality tests, linkage relationship, tertiary industry, tourism