PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 967-977.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.08.003

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatio-temporal Evaluation of Urban Planning Implementation

LONG Ying1,2, HAN Haoying3, GU Yizhen4, SHEN Zhengjiang5, MAO Qizhi1   

  1. 1. School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
    2. Beijing Institute of Architectural Design, Beijing 100045, China;
    3. College of Public Administration, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China;
    4. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA;
    5. School of Environment Design, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa 920-1192, Japan
  • Received:2010-11-01 Revised:2011-03-01 Online:2011-08-25 Published:2011-08-25

Abstract: Urban planning implementation evaluation (UPIE) has attracted great attention from the urban planning profession as well as local governments in recent years. The existing literature mainly focuses on the conformity approach and does not take careful account into the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the urban planning implementation effectiveness. Moreover, previous studies fail to distinguish the effects of the urban planning from other institutional forces as well as the market forces on urban expansion. Therefore, we introduce a spatio-temporal dynamic approach for UPIE using logistic regression to evaluate the effectiveness of the urban planning on urban expansion. The empirical research is conducted in the Beijing Metropolitan Area (BMA) by the analysis of five versions of the city master plans issued in 1958, 1973, 1982, 1992 and 2004 respectively. According to the temporal phases of implementing the plans, five phases are divided from 1947 to 2008 to evaluate the temporal dynamics of urban plans and the effectiveness of other factors. In addition, the effectiveness of the 2004 City Master Plan of the 16 districts of the BMA is estimated respectively to identify the spatial variations of the planning implementation. The results show that the effectiveness of urban planning increases over time, and is significantly stronger in remote areas than in the central city and sub-urban areas.

Key words: Beijing, conformity, planning implementation evaluation, spatiotemporal heterogeneity, urban expansion, urban planning