PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (12): 1584-1589.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.12.016

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Non-linear Analysis of the Scale of Agricultural Production in Pujiang County

FANG Bin, DING Yi   

  1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
  • Received:2010-07-01 Revised:2011-01-01 Online:2010-12-25 Published:2010-12-25


Based on the present crop growing area in Pujiang County, taking the investigations of the farmers in agricultural production and the statistical yearbooks as the sources of sample data, by means of the non-linear dynamic model of large extent agriculture and capital investment, the optimum cropping stability parameters of Pujiang are determined. In accordance with Pujiang County's economic status in Zhejiang province and its regional advantages, we consider that cropping in this county has the possibility and necessity of the large extent operation. At the same time, it is found by using the model that when food self-sufficiency rate is over 80%, the overall economic benefits and food self-sufficiency rate do not have an entirely negative correlation. By adjusting the areas of rice, vegetables and fruits, steady growth of economic benefits can be achieved. The simulation results also showed that when the food self-sufficiency rate is 85%, the theoretical optimum growing areas of rice, vegetables and grapes separately are 13502 ha, 1570 ha and 628 ha, respectively.

Key words: agricultural production, nonlinear analysis, resource optimization, scale