土地变化驱动力研究的尺度问题

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.11.034

Abstract

Abstract:

Scale issue is a focus but also a difficult theme in the driving forces analysis of land change. While statistics is very popular in analyzing drivers of land change, there is no particular research on the impact of scale in this domain. This article summarizes the methods often used in the driving force analysis of land change, recognizes five scale issues needed to concern. They are the impact of 5 situations (the extent of the study area, the grain size, the time range, the time period of data, and the classification accuracy) on the analysis results when using the term of‘scale’, and all of these 5 situations can be concluded into data aggregation. If the impact of data aggregation is not treated correctly, the potential dangers exist in two aspects: (1) the results is meaningless, (2) the policies based on the analysis are incorrect and harmful. So far, there are 3 approaches to solve this problem: (1) basic entity approach, (2) sensitivity analysis approach, and (3) frame-independent analysis approach. These approaches can be applied and more researches are needed in the domain of the driving force analysis of land change.

Key words: driver, land change, scale, statistics

YAN Xiang, CAI Yunlong, CHEN Ruishan, LI Hao. Scale Issues in the Driving Force Analysis of Land Change[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2010, 29(11): 1408-1413.

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[22] 郝兴明, 李卫红, 陈亚宁, 等. 塔里木河干流土地利用/覆盖变化的社会经济驱动力分析. 中国沙漠, 2007, 27(3): 405-411.

[23] 张勃, 毛彦成, 柳景峰. 黑河中游土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力的定量分析. 干旱区地理, 2006, 29(5): 726-731.

[24] 邱炳文. 福建省龙海市土地利用空间分布影响因子的尺度效应分析. 自然资源学报, 2007, 22(1): 70-78.

[25] 邓祥征, 战金艳. 中国北方农牧交错带土地利用变化驱动力的尺度效应分析. 地理与地理信息科学, 2004, 20 (3): 64-69.

[26] 陈佑启, Verburg P. 中国土地利用/土地覆盖的多尺度空间分布特征分析. 地理科学, 2000, 20(3): 197-202.

[27] 邵景安, 李阳兵, 魏朝富, 等. 区域土地利用变化驱动力研究前景展望. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(8):798-809.

[28] Conway T M. The impact of class resolution in land use change models. Computers Environment and Urban Systems, 2009, 33(4): 269-277.

[29] 邬建国. 景观生态学: 格局、过程、尺度与等级. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2000: 142-150.

[30] Marceau D J. The scale issue in social and natural sciences. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, 1999, 25(4): 347-356.

[31] Dark S J, Bram D. The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in physical geography. Progress in Physical Geography, 2007, 31(5): 471-479.

[32] Gehlke C E, Biehl K. Certain Effects of Grouping Upon the Size of the Correlation Coefficient in Census Tract Material. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1934, 29(185): 169-170.

[33] Robinson W S. Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. American Sociological Review, 1950,15 (3): 351-357.

[10] 张希彪, 周天林, 上官周平, 等. 黄土高原耕地变化趋势及驱动力研究: 以甘肃陇东地区为例. 干旱区地理, 2006, 29(5): 731-735.

[11] 高啸峰, 王树德, 宫阿都, 等. 基于主成分分析法的土地利用/覆被变化驱动力研究. 地理与地理信息科学, 2009, 25(1): 36-39.

[12] 郭杰, 欧名豪, 刘琼, 等. 江苏省耕地资源动态变化及驱动力研究. 长江流域资源与环境, 2009, 18(2): 139-145.

[13] 李月臣, 刘春霞. 1987-2006 年北方13 省土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力分析. 干旱区地理, 2009, 32(1): 37-46.

[14] 马礼, 唐毅, 牛东宇. 北方农牧交错带耕地面积变化驱动力研究: 以沽源县近15 年为例. 人文地理, 2008, 23(5): 17-21.

[15] 谢花林, 李波. 基于logistic 回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析: 以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例. 地理研究, 2008, 27(2): 296-306.

[16] Overmars K P, de Koning G H J, Veldkamp A. Spatial autocorrelation in multi-scale land use models. Ecological Modelling, 2003, 164(2-3): 257-270.

[17] 谢花林, 刘黎明, 李波, 等. 土地利用变化的多尺度空间自相关分析: 以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例. 地理学报, 2006, 61(4): 390-411.

[18] 邱炳文, 王钦敏, 陈崇成, 等. 福建省土地利用多尺度空间自相关分析. 自然资源学报, 2007, 22(2): 311-322.

[19] 朱闪闪, 赵言文. 浙江省土地利用变化及社会经济驱动因素. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(A1): 1-7.

[20] 唐菊华, 吕昌河, 杨续超. 苏锡常地区1995 年至2005 年城市用地扩展的驱动力分析. 资源科学, 2009, 31(5): 801-806.

[21] 焦锋, 秦伯强. GIS 支持下的小尺度土地驱动力研究: 以宜兴市湖滏小流域为例. 长江流域资源与环境, 2003, 12 (3): 205-210.

[22] 郝兴明, 李卫红, 陈亚宁, 等. 塔里木河干流土地利用/覆盖变化的社会经济驱动力分析. 中国沙漠, 2007, 27(3): 405-411.

[23] 张勃, 毛彦成, 柳景峰. 黑河中游土地利用/覆盖变化驱动力的定量分析. 干旱区地理, 2006, 29(5): 726-731.

[24] 邱炳文. 福建省龙海市土地利用空间分布影响因子的尺度效应分析. 自然资源学报, 2007, 22(1): 70-78.

[25] 邓祥征, 战金艳. 中国北方农牧交错带土地利用变化驱动力的尺度效应分析. 地理与地理信息科学, 2004, 20 (3): 64-69.

[26] 陈佑启, Verburg P. 中国土地利用/土地覆盖的多尺度空间分布特征分析. 地理科学, 2000, 20(3): 197-202.

[27] 邵景安, 李阳兵, 魏朝富, 等. 区域土地利用变化驱动力研究前景展望. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(8):798-809.

[28] Conway T M. The impact of class resolution in land use change models. Computers Environment and Urban Systems, 2009, 33(4): 269-277.

[29] 邬建国. 景观生态学: 格局、过程、尺度与等级. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 2000: 142-150.

[30] Marceau D J. The scale issue in social and natural sciences. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, 1999, 25(4): 347-356.

[31] Dark S J, Bram D. The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) in physical geography. Progress in Physical Geography, 2007, 31(5): 471-479.

[32] Gehlke C E, Biehl K. Certain Effects of Grouping Upon the Size of the Correlation Coefficient in Census Tract Material. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1934, 29(185): 169-170.

[33] Robinson W S. Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. American Sociological Review, 1950,15 (3): 351-357.

Scale Issues in the Driving Force Analysis of Land Change

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