PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 684-692.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.06.007

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

A Review on Seismic Economic Loss Estimation

YE Shanshan,ZHAI Guofang   

  1. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2009-10-01 Revised:2010-01-01 Online:2010-06-25 Published:2010-06-25

Abstract:

Risk is usually defined as the product of the probability and the consequence, so seismic economic loss estimation is an important component of seismic risk analysis. What's more, a reasonable loss estimation is a foundation and basis for the government to take earthquake risk prevention management measures. Therefore, how to accurately estimate the economic loss caused by the earthquake has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper reviews the development process of seismic economic loss estimation at home and abroad. The evaluation methods of direct and indirect economic loss caused by earthquake are summarized. The existing difficulties to use the model to estimate the seismic economic loss and problems to be solved are also pointed out. Seismic economic loss comprises two parts: direct economic loss and indirect economic loss. Direct economic loss generally refers to the decrease in physical property, including the damage of buildings, indoor property and infrastructure. Generally speaking, the research on direct seismic economic loss estimation, domestically or internationally, has already formed stable and systematic methods, but the problem is that it is still unable to integrate overall socio-economic entirely into seismic economic loss estimation. Indirect economic loss often consists of loss from factory's production interpretation, inter-industry loss, and the loss due to breaking the equilibrium state of the original economic system by seismic disaster. The research on indirect seismic economic loss estimation at home and abroad is still in the stage of constant exploration and improvement due to many reasons such as the wide range of affected areas, long time of impact and recovery, and the complex linkages among the economies, which result in that the indirect seismic economic loss estimation can't provide a more accurate result. Finally, this paper discusses the prospects for the development of study on the seismic economic loss estimation in the future.

Key words: estimation method of direct economic loss, estimation method of indirect economic loss, seismic economic loss