地理科学进展

PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 677-683.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.06.006

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

An Econometric Analysis on the Impacts of Climatic Change on Grain Production at Counties of China

HUANG Wei1,2,3, DENG Xiangzheng1,2, HE Shujin1, LIN Yingzhi1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2009-12-01 Revised:2010-02-01 Online:2010-06-25 Published:2010-06-25

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Abstract:

This paper aims to explore the relationship between the fluctuations of climate change identified by annually fluctuations of air temperature and precipitation during the study time period and the changes of grain production at counties of China by using panel data models, based on survey data across all counties in 31 provinces (except for Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau) for the four time periods of 1988, 1995, 2000 and 2005, which consists of climate variables, social and economic variables and geophysical variables. The estimation results show that the average impacts of air temperatures and the precipitation are positive. However, based on panel data models regressed at the scale of different provinces, marginal increases in temperature and rainfall have very different effects on grain production in different regions. Warming is beneficial to the North China, Northwest China and Northeast China; in contrast, higher temperatures are harmful to grain production in the South and East China. More rain is likely to be beneficial to the Northeast China, Northwest China and Central China, but will harm farmers in the remaining regions. Marginal increases in temperature and rainfall have very different effects in different seasons. For example, there aren't distinct impacts of spring temperature on grain production. However, based on the panel data model consisting of seasonal climate variables, results suggest that the average higher temperature in summer and winter is negative for grain production in China, but drastic raise of temperature in summer and winter is beneficial to grain production. In contrast, the impact of average autumn temperature is opposite to that of summer and winter. Except for the impacts of rainfall in spring and summer on grain production, the impacts of rainfall in other seasons on grain production aren't distinct. The results suggest that social factors and geophysical factors may affect the grain production to a certain extent as well.

Key words: China, climate change, counties, econometric analysis, grain production, panel data model, randomeffects model