农业干旱风险研究进展

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.05.007

Abstract

Abstract:

The analysis of agricultural drought risk is not only the prerequisite of drought risk management, but also the theoretical basis of risk division and of the damages, and it has become a new research focus in recent years. The connotation, the constituent elements, the analysis system, and the study status of agricultural drought disaster were described in this paper. On this basis, this paper pointed out that, from the agricultural drought hazard and vulnerability point of view, the systematic establishment of a comprehensive drought risk analysis framework, especially the development of dynamic mathematical models and index system for each risk factor, is the research priority in the study of temporal and spatial patterns of agricultural drought risk.

Key words: agricultural drought, hazard, risk, vulnerability

HE Bin, WU Jianjun, LV Aifeng. New Advances in Agricultural Drought Risk Study[J].PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2010, 29(5): 557-564.

References

[1] UNISDR. Briefing Note 01: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, 2008.

[2] 张继权, 冈田宪夫, 多多纳裕一. 综合自然灾害风险管理: 全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择. 自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(1): 29-37.

[3] Wilhite D A, Hayes M J, Knutson C, et al. Planning for drought: Moving from crisis to risk management. Water Resour. Assoc., 2000, 36(4): 697-710.

[4] 钱正安, 吴统文, 宋敏红, 等. 干旱和我国西北干旱气候的研究进展及问题. 地球科学进展, 2001, 16(1): 28-38.

[5] Dai A G, Trenberth K E, Qian T T. A global dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2004, 5: 1117-1130.

[6] IPCC. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of climate change, working group Ⅱ report. London: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

[7] IPCC. Climate change 2007: Impacts adaptation and vulnerability,working group II report. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

[8] 马宗晋. 中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论). 北京: 科学出版杜, 1994.

[9] Hagman G. Prevention better than cure. Report on Human and Environmental Disasters in the Third World. Stockholm, Sweden: Swedish Red Cross, 1984.

[10] Changnon S A, Jr. Detecting Drought Conditions in Illinois. Champaign: Illinois State Water Survey, 1987.

[11] Knutson C, Hayes M, Phillips T. How to Reduce Drought Risk. Wisconsin, Nebraska: Western Drought Coordination Council, 1998.

[12] Wilhite D A. Drought. Encyclopedia of Earth System Science, 1992, 2: 81-92.

[13] Palmer W C. Meteorological drought US. Weather Bureau Research Paper, 1965: 45-58.

[14] Kulshreshtha S N, Klein K K. Agricultral drought impact evaluation model: A systems approach. Agricultural System, 1989, 30(1): 81-96.

[15] Kumar V, Panu U. Predictive assessment of severity of agricultural droughts based on agro-climatic factors. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 1997, 33(6): 1255-1264.

[16] Nullet D, Giambelluca T W. Risk analysis of seasonal agricultural drought on low Pacific islands. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1988, 42(2-3): 229-239.

[17] 苏桂武, 高庆华. 自然灾害风险的分析要素. 地学前缘, 2003, 10(特刊): 272-278.

[18] Lowrance W W. Of Acceptable Risk. Los Altos: Wilham Kaufmann, 1976.

[19] Rescher N. Risk: A Philosophical Introduction to the Theory of Risk Evaluation and Management. London: University Press of America, 1983.

[20] Adams J. Risk. London: UCL Press, 1995.

[21] Banks E. Catastrophic Risk Analysis and Management. Chichester: Wiley Finance, 2005.

[22] 史陪军. 再论灾害研究的理论与实践. 自然灾害学报, 1996, 5(4): 6-17.

[23] UNDRO. Mitigating natural disasters, phenomena, effects and options. A manual for policy makers and planners. New York, UNDRO,1991.

[24] Alexander D. Confronting Catastrophe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.

[25] Mechler R. Natural Disaster Risk Management and Financing Disaster Losses in Developing Countries. Karlsruhe: Verlag Versicherungswirtschaft GmbH, 2004.

[26] Petak W J, Atkisson A. Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy. Spinger-Vezlag New York Lnc., 1982.

[27] 周寅康. 自然灾害风险评价初步研究. 自然灾害学报, 1995, 4(1): 6-11.

[28] 黄崇福. 自然灾害风险分析的基本原理. 自然灾害学报, 1999, 8(2): 21-30.

[29] Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I, et al. At risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London, New York: Routledge, 1994.

[30] Downing T E, Gawith M J, Olsthoorn A A, et al. Introduction climate change and risk//Downing T E, Olsthoorn A J, Tol R S J. London: Routledege, 1999: 1-18.

[31] Downing T E, Bakker K. Drought discourse and vulnerability//Wilhite D A. Drought: A Global Assessment, Natural Hazards and Disasters Series. London: Routledge, 2000.

[32] Wilhite D A. Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions//Wilhite D A. Drought: A Global Assessment. New York: Routledge, 2000: 1-18.

[33] Sonamez F K, Komuscu A U, Erkan A, et al. An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Natural Hazards, 2005, 35: 243-264.

[34] Shahid S, Behrawan H. Drought risk assessment in the west part of Bangladesh. Nat Hazard, 2008, 46（3）: 391-413.

[35] Hayes M J, Wilhelmi O V, Knutson C L. Reducing drought risk: bridging theory and practice. Natural Hazard Review, 2004, 5(2): 106-113.

[36] McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales//Proc. 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 1993, 179-184, 17-22 January, Anaheim, CA.Boston, MA: American Meteorological Society.

[37] 王劲峰. 中国自然灾害影响评价方法研究. 北京: 中国科学技术出版社, 1993: 58-86.

[38] Palmer W C. Meteorological drought US. Weather Bureau Research Paper, 1965: 45-58.

[39] Palmer W C. Keeping track of crop moisture conditions, nationwide: The new crop moisture index. Weatherwise, 1968, 21: 156-161.

[40] Ohlsson I. Water conflict and social resource scarcity. Physics and Chemistry of The Earth(B), 2000, 25(3): 213-220.

[41] 朱琳, 叶殿秀, 陈建文, 等. 陕西省冬小麦干旱风险分析及区划.应用气象学报, 2002, 13(2): 201-206.

[42] 商彦蕊. 农业旱灾风险与脆弱性评估及其相关关系的建立. 河北师范大学学报, 1999, 23(3): 420-428.

[43] 张德二, 刘传志. 《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》续补(1980-1992年). 气象, 1993, 19(11): 41-45.

[44] 李克让, 尹思明, 沙万英. 中国现代干旱灾害的时空特征. 地理研究, 1996, 15(3): 6-15.

[45] 潘耀忠, 龚道益, 王平. 中国近40年旱灾时空格局分析. 北京师范大学学报, 1996, 32(1): 138-143.

[46] 王静爱, 孙恒, 徐伟, 等. 近50年中国旱灾的时空变化. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(2): 1-6.

[47] Keenan S P, Krannich R S. The social context of perceived drought vulnerability. Rural Sociol, 1997, 62(1): 69-88.

[48] Kates R W. The interaction of climate and society//Kates R W, Ausubel J H, Berberian M. Climate impact assessment: Studies of the interaction of climate and society. Chichester: Wiley,1985.

[49] Wilhelmi O V, Wilhite D A. Assessing vulnerability to agricultural drought: A Nebraska case study. Nat Hazards, 2002, 25(1): 37-58.

[50] Turner B, Kasperson R E, Matson P A, et al. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2003, 100(14): 8074-8079.

[51] 刘兰芳, 刘盛和, 刘沛林, 等. 湖南省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与定量评价. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(4): 78-83.

[52] Ribot J C. Introduction: Climate Variability, Climate Change and Vulnerability: Moving ForwardRibot by Looking Back//Ribot J C, Magalhaes A R, Panagides S S. Climate Variability: Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-Arid Tropics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.

[53] 王静爱, 商彦蕊, 苏筠, 等. 中国农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性诊断与区域可持续发展. 北京师范大学学报, 2005,(3): 130-137.

[54] Betty. Identifying and mapping community vulnerability. Disater. The Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management, 1999, 23(1): 1-18.

[55] 商彦蕊. 河北省农业旱灾脆弱性动态变化的成因分析. 自然灾害学报, 2000, 9(1): 40-46.

[56] 刘兰芳, 关欣, 唐云松. 农业旱灾脆弱性评价及生态减灾研究: 以湖南省衡阳市为例. 水土保持通报, 2005, 25(2): 69-73.

[57] Quiring S M, Papakryiakou T N. An evaluation of agricultural drought indices for the Canadian prairies. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2003, 118(1-2): 49-62.

[58] Starr T B, Kostrow P I. The response of spring wheat yield to anomalous climate sequences in the Unite States. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1978, 17(8): 1101-1115.

[59] Thompson L M. Effects of changes in climate and weather variability on the yields of corn and soybeans. Journal of Production Agriculture, 1988, 1(1): 20-27.

[60] Walker G K. Model for operational forecasting of western Canada wheat yield. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1989, 44(3-4): 339-351.

[61] Mjelde J W, Penson Jr J B. Dynamic aspects of the impact of the use of perfect climate forecasts in the corn belt region. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2000, 39(1): 67-79.

[62] Hong Wu, Wilhit D A. An operational agricultural drought risk assessment model for Nebraska, USA. Natural Hazards, 2004, 33(1): 1-21.

[63] 任鲁川. 区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展. 地球科学进展, 1999, 14(3): 242-246.

[64] 黄崇福, 刘新立, 周国贤, 等. 以历史灾情资料为依据的农业自然灾害风险平评估方法. 自然灾害学报, 1998, 7(2): 1-9.

[65] Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H. Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Water Resour Manage, 2007, 21(5): 821-833.

[66] 王晓红, 乔云峰, 沈容开, 等. 灌区干旱风险评估模型研究. 水科学进展, 2004, 15(1): 77-81.

[67] 王石立, 娄秀荣. 华北地区冬小麦干旱风险评估的初步研究. 自然灾害学报, 1997, 6(3): 63-68

New Advances in Agricultural Drought Risk Study

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	GUO Qian, LIAO Heping, WANG Ziyi, LIU Yuanli, LI Tao. Measurement of rural poverty alleviation sustainability and return-to-poverty risk identification in Qinling-Bashan Mountains:A case study of Chengkou County, Chongqing Municipality [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(2): 232-244.
[2]	CHEN Mingxing, HUANG Xinrong, HUANG Gengzhi, YANG Yanshan. New urbanization and informal employment: Scale, pattern, and social integration [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(1): 50-60.
[3]	XUE Qian, XIE Miaomiao, GUO Qiang, WANG Yanan, WU Rongrong, LIU Qi. Research progress on urban heat wave vulnerability assessment: A geographical perspective [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(4): 685-694.
[4]	XIONG Chenran, WANG Limao, QU Qiushi, XIANG Ning, WANG Bo. Progress and prospect of geopolitical risk research [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(4): 695-706.
[5]	LIU Di, CHEN Hai, GENG Tianwei, ZHANG Hang, SHI Qinqin. Spatiotemporal changes of regional ecological risks in Shaanxi Province based on geomorphologic regionalization [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(2): 243-254.
[6]	WU Zemian, QIU Jianxiu, LIU Suxia, MO Xingguo. Advances in agricultural drought monitoring based on soil moisture [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(10): 1758-1769.
[7]	Hui WANG, Changchun SONG. Regional ecological risk assessment of wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(6): 872-882.
[8]	Jiayi FANG, Peijun SHI. A review of coastal flood risk research under global climate change [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(5): 625-636.
[9]	Chao YE, Liangming YIN, Qingmei YIN, Jianhua XU. Is geography a vulnerable discipline? Reflections on the elimination of geography at Harvard University [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(3): 312-319.
[10]	Hui ZHANG, Cheng LI, Jiong CHENG, Zhifeng WU, Yanyan WU. A review of urban flood risk assessment based on the framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(2): 175-190.
[11]	Ning ZHANG, Dawei WANG. Drug-related crime risk assessment and predictive policing based on risk terrain modeling [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(8): 1131-1139.
[12]	Qian LI, Haiyang YU, Ting LI, Shuang LONG, Wei SHAO, Ying WANG, Yingjun XU. Hazard assessment of typhoons affecting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on Gumbel distribution [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(7): 933-945.
[13]	Lingbo XIAO. Spatiotemporal distribution of high flood risk areas in China, 1736-1911 [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(4): 495-503.
[14]	Yanhua LIU, Yong XU. Analytical framework of sustainable poverty-reduction effect and mechanisms of anti-poverty models [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(4): 567-578.
[15]	Hongbo ZHAO, Yuanbo FENG, Guanpeng DONG, Changhong MIAO. Spatial differentiation and influencing factors of residents' self-rated health and environmental hazard perception: A case study of Zhengzhou City [J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(12): 1713-1726.