PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 445-453.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.04.009

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Empirical Study on the Economic Effects and Spatial Distribution of Trade Risk: A Case Study of Guangdong Province

WANG Zhiyong   

  1. The Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100732, China
  • Received:2009-09-01 Revised:2010-02-01 Online:2010-04-24 Published:2010-04-24


International trade is one of the most important links between one country or area and the world economy. Meanwhile, economic globalization will bring risks to a country’s or an area’s employment and economy growth through international trade. Therefore, the study on trade risk and its regional distribution is important for stabilizing regional economic growth and promoting employment. In this paper, we studied the economic effects and spatial distribution of trade risk, taking Guangdong Province as an example. The empirical study of this paper shows that the export is very important to the growth of a region’s economy and employment. If the export slows down, the regional economy and the employment will also slow down. However, the regional economy and the employment should not depend heavily on export. When the ratio of export in the regional economy growth is too high, it will have a negative effect on both the regional economy and employment. The spatial analysis of trade risk shows that the highest trade risk regions are mainly located around the Pearl River Delta area, such as Dongguan, Shenzhen, Huizhou and Zhuhai. The spatial distribution of trade risk regions is helpful to policy decision making. Once there is a sign of recession of world economy, counter-measures against trade risks should be taken in advance in those regions with high dependency of international trade.

Key words: Guangdong Province, spatial analysis, trade and employment, trade risk