PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 870-876.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.06.006

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis and Prediction of Ecological Carrying Capacity in Mining Cities of Central Liaoning by System Dynamics Approach

GU Kangkang1, 2, LIU Jingshuang2, WANG Yang2   

  1. 1. School of Architecture and Planning, Anhui University of Architecture and Industry, Hefei 230022, China;
    2. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agriculture Ecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China
  • Online:2009-11-25 Published:2009-11-25

Abstract:

The mining cities in central Liaoning region are the important energy production and heavy industrial base of China, and the study on the ecological carrying capacity status(ECC) and the prediction of the developing trend in these areas are of great significant to the harmonious development between economy and ecology. Based on the unity of resources ensurence rate, environmental carrying capacity and socio-economic growth principle, the ECC model of the mining cities in central Liaoning region was established by system dynamics approach. The ECC status of the study region was evaluated through 1997 to 2006, and the developing trend for 2006-2020 was predicted. Results showed that: from 1997 to 2006, the ECC of the mining cities in central Liaoning region was overloaded in general, but the developing trend was regional specific. The ECC index of Anshan changed from 1.686 to 1.301, and averagely decreased by 2.56% per year, but the ECC was still overloaded. The ECC index of Fushun changed from 1.169 to 0.909, and averagely decreased by 2.49% per year, the ECC status changed from overload to surplus. The ECC index of Benxi elevated from 1.070 to 1.249, and averagely increased by 1.56% per year, the overloading extent was increasing constantly. Generally, from 2006 to 2020, the ECC of central Liaoning region was overloaded, of which the overloaded extent was increasing constantly, and the average increase rate of the ECC index per year for Anshan, Fushun and Benxi were 0.89%, 1.56% and 1.81%, respectively. In conclusion, as mining cities, Anshan, Fushun and Benxi should give priorities to the ensuring of water resource and energy resource supply, and improve the ecological carrying capacity.

Key words: environment carrying capacity, mining cities, prediction, resources ensurence rate, socio-economic growth; system dynamics approach