PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 245-252.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.02.012

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Ecological Security Assessment and Prediction for Shenzhen

LI Peiwu11, LI Guicai22, ZHANG Jinhua11, LI Zihe33, XU Feng11   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environment Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300384, China;
    2. Institute of Graduate Studies, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China;
    3. Education College, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300384, China
  • Received:2008-08-01 Revised:2008-12-01 Online:2009-03-25 Published:2009-03-25

Abstract:

Based on the pressure-status-response (PSR) conceptual model, this paper constructs the ecological security evaluation index system of Shenzhen. It selects the AHP(analytic hierarchy process) and the entropy-right method to empowering all indicators. Through the fuzzy synthetic method and using the SPSS software, it obtains a result of ecological security dynamic changes of Shenzhen from 1997 to 2006 by calculating, analyzing and evaluating. Then it builds prediction model using stepwise regression analysis, and verifies the security grades of ecology data of Shenzhen in 2006. The results show that: it is an approaching situation of ecological security synthetic indices from less security to relative security of Shenzhen from 1997 to 2005, and reaches relative security status in 2006. The membership of ideal security and relative security will get larger gradually while the membership of terribly security gets smaller. It also shows that the limiting factors impacting ecological security of Shenzhen is diminishing gradually, and the development potential is great; the ecological security of Shenzhen will go up to ideal status in 2022 through the prediction model.

Key words: ecological security, evaluation, fuzzy evaluation pattern, prediction, PSR model, Shenzhen