Abstract:

Three Gorges Project is the great project in the world, which accelerates economic development in the reservoir area of Three Gorges Project. In the process of development in the reservoir area of Three Gorges Project, cultivated land has become an important resource, and a lot of cultivated land has been occupied and become constructing land. At the same time, a lot of cultivated land has been flooded because of the rising of the water level. This paper uses the cultivated land areas and social economic indicators of reservoir area of Three Gorges for 1990~2004, takes the statistic analyses and example research in order to analyze the process of cultivated land, gets the driving forces of cultivated land change, finds the new methods to stimulate and forecast the cultivated land areas in the future, and serves for the cultivated land protection and sustainable development in reservoir area of Three Gorges. The results indicate that, firstly, in the past 15 years, the cultivated land area has decreased by 200 142 hm², and the decreasing quantity per year is 13343 hm²

Key words: BP neural network, change in cultivated land, driving forces, Reservoir Area of Three Gorges, theory of decoupling