PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2005, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 1-10.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2005.01.001

• Original Articles •     Next Articles

The Impacts of Global Trade Liberalization on China and World Economy

HUANG Jikun1,2, YANG Jun1,2, Frank van Tongeren3, Hans van Meijl3   

  1. 1. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101;
    2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research;
    3. Agricultural Economics Research Institute, the Hague, the Netherlands
  • Received:2004-12-01 Revised:2005-01-01 Online:2005-01-25 Published:2005-01-25

Abstract:

Economic globalization and trade liberalization have been developing smoothly and are expected to continue in the future. The Doha Round of trade negotiation and the recent phasing out of the Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) have stimulated the process of trade liberalization. The overall goal of this study is to examine the impacts on China and world economy of the recent phasing out of MFA and the proposals for trade liberalization provided by EU, USA and CAIRNS group. Based on a general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), this study shows that the world economy will gain more than US$ 10 billion from the phasing out of MFA, though the loss may present in a few countries. USA, EU, China and India are major gainers. The success of Doha Round negotiation will have much substantial effect on the global economy. World income will increase by about US$ 100 billion in 2010. China is one of major countries that gain most from the Doha Round of trade negotiation. Among the proposals examined, China gains more from CAIRNS and US proposals than from EU proposal. China should press for global trade liberalization as this is consistent with China’s national interests.

Key words: China, economic impacts, GTAP, trade liberalization, world