地理科学进展

PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY ›› 2004, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (4): 63-71.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2004.04.008

• Original Articles • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Progress in Spatial Simulation of Land Use Change ——CLUE-S model and its application

CAI Yumei1, LIU Yanshui2, YU Zhenrong3, Peter H. Verburg4   

  1. 1. China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research| CAS| Beijing 100101;
    3. College of Agricultural Resources and Environmental Sciences| China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094;
    4. Agronomy Department, P.O. Box 341, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  • Received:2004-01-01 Revised:2004-05-01 Online:2004-07-24 Published:2004-07-24

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Abstract:

Simulation of land use change spatially is the important base for analyzing land use scenario. On the base of introducing Cell Autumat model (CA) and Conversion of land use change and its effects (CLUE) model, Conversion of land use change and its effects——small region model is analyzed. CA model fits to simulate urban land use change , Shenzhen city’s land use change is simulated with this model. CLUE（Conversion of land use and its effects） model fits to simulate land use change in macro scale, It has four main modules including demand module, population module, production module and spatial distribution module. Land use change of China from 1991 to 2010 is simulated with this model. And CLUE-S model fits to simulate land use change in micro scale and have wide applied field. To take Handan district of Hebei province as an example, the SPOT image of this district in 1995 is processed, and its relative driving force including altitude, gradient, soil classification, the distance to main road, to general road, to central city, to main cities and nearest resident area is also analyzed. Three scenarios are selected: the first is policy-driving land use scenario in 2010, the second is economic-driving land use scenario in 2010, and the third is sustainable development driving land use scenario in 2010. and a series parameters are set. Finally, the following result is put out: to set up the statistic relation between driving force of land use change and spatial distribution by experiential model and simulate land use change scenario in short time is the core of CLUE-S model. In this model, The competition of different land use types is better resolved in CLUE-S model, it is a effective model for simulating land use change; considering the driving force of land use change in short time mainly related to soci-economic factor, and it is still difficult to distribute soci-economic factors in space, to resolve this problem is the key to develop and apply CLUE-S model; Since it can deal with the spatial distribution in different scale, CLUE-S model has expansive applied value in land production potential assessment and land use planning fields.

Key words: CLUE-S, land use change model, spatial distribution