中国跨省流动人口回流意愿的空间差异及影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.01.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在中国城市产业结构升级和乡村经济发展的宏观背景下,乡城流动人口的返乡回流现象逐渐显现,流动人口呈现外出与回流并存的趋势,大量的流动人口回流对中国的新型城镇化和城乡发展产生了重要影响,是探索中国城乡关系变化的重要视角。论文采用2016年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,建立二分类Logistic模型,对全国跨省流动人口回流意愿的空间差异和影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明：① 具有回流意愿的流动人口具有相似的人口学特征,包括年龄较大、受教育水平较低、没有稳定的婚姻状态等;② 跨省流动人口的回流意愿具有明显的空间差异,从流入地来看,东南沿海地区和西部地区的流动人口回流意愿较高,从流出地来看,中部地区的流动人口回流意愿较高;③ 流动人口的回流意愿受到个人因素、流动因素、家庭因素、制度因素多个方面的影响,其中年龄、婚姻状况、受教育程度、进城务工时间、是否为独自流动、家庭月收入、现住房性质、社会保障制度对流动人口回流意愿具有显著影响。

关键词: 省际流动人口, 回流意愿, 空间差异, 二分类Logistic模型

Abstract:

Along with the urban industrial structure adjustment and the development of the rural economy, a large-scale backflow of inter-provincial migrant workers gradually emerged, which had a tremendous impact on China's economic and social development. The spatial differences and influencing factors of inter-provincial migrant workers' backflow intention are vital issues, particularly in predicting the changing demographic trends and understanding the migrant population's needs and demands. Drawing on data from the 2016 China Migrant Population Dynamic Survey, this study discussed the spatial distribution and influencing factors of 82846 inter-provincial migrant workers from 31 provinces of China's mainland using a binary Logistic regression model. The results are as follows: 1) Older migrant workers with lower education level or without stable marital status seem to have stronger backflow intention. 2) The distribution of backflow intention presents a remarkable spatial differentiation. Among the three main geographical regions, the backflow intention of migrant workers currently in the eastern and western regions of China is stronger while the migrant workers who came from the central region express their clear willingness to return. 3) Backflow intention is influenced by personal factors of migrant population, their migration characteristics, family factors, and institutional factors. For all the factors, age, marital status, education, years of working after migration, migrating with family or not, family income, housing condition, and social security system are significant forces that shape the spatial pattern of inter-provincial migrant workers' backflow intention in China.

Key words: inter-provincial migrant workers, backflow intention, spatial difference, binary Logistic regression model

张华, 刘哲达, 殷小冰. 中国跨省流动人口回流意愿的空间差异及影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(1): 73-84.

ZHANG Hua, LIU Zheda, YIN Xiaobing. Spatial differences and influencing factors of inter-provincial migrant workers’ backflow intention in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(1): 73-84.

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影响因素	具体指标	变量界定	均值或占比
个人因素	年龄(岁)	连续变量	35.25
	性别	男=0 女=1	53.6% 46.4%
	婚姻状况	未婚=0 已婚=1 离婚=2	7.6% 71.6% 20.8%
	受教育程度	未上过学=0 小学=1 初中=2 高中(包括中专)=3 大专及以上=4	1.8% 13.8% 49.0% 20.8% 14.6%
流动因素	进城务工时间	1~2 a=0 3~4 a=1 5~19 a=2 20 a及以上=3	25.5% 16.7% 52.9% 4.9%
	本次流动原因	务工经商=0 随迁婚嫁=1 照顾老人小孩=2 其他=3	86.6% 9.9% 1.8% 1.7%
	本次是否是独自流动	是=0 否=1	37.3% 62.7%
家庭因素	亲生子女数(个)	连续变量	1.41
	家庭月收入(元)	连续变量	7650
	现住房性质	自购房=0 租住单位房=1 廉价公租房=2 租住私房=3	19.5% 16.9% 0.5% 63.1%
制度因素	户口性质	农业户籍=0 非农业户籍=1	83.7% 16.3%
	是否参加失业保险	是=0 否=1	21.3% 78.7%
	是否参加工伤保险	是=0 否=1	24.9% 75.1%
	是否参加新型合作医疗	是=0 否=1	62.6% 37.4%

变量	系数B	Exp(B)
年龄	0.001^*	1.001
年龄平方项	0.284^***	1.328
性别(男性为参照组)	-0.052	0.949
婚姻状况(未婚为参照组)
已婚	-0.084^*	0.919
离婚	0.127^*	1.135
受教育程度(未上过学为参照组)
小学	-0.088^***	0.916
初中	-0.191^**	0.826
高中(包括中专)	-0.425^**	0.654
大专及以上	-0.792^**	0.453
进城务工时间(1~2 a为参照组)
3~4 a	-0.155^**	0.857
5~19 a	-0.442^***	0.643
20 a及以上	-0.637^***	0.529
本次流动原因(务工经商为参照组)
随迁婚嫁	-0.192^*	0.826
照顾老人小孩	0.185^**	1.203
其他	-0.165	0.848
本次是否是独自流动(“是”为参照组)	-0.282^***	0.754
亲生子女数	-0.085	0.919
家庭月收入	-0.008^***	0.992
现住房性质(自购房为参照组)
租住单位房	1.989^***	7.307
公租房	0.758^***	2.133
租住私房	1.484^***	4.41
户口性质(农业户籍为参照组)	0.012	1.012
是否参加失业保险(“是”为参照组)	0.508^***	1.663
是否参加工伤保险(“是”为参照组)	-0.396^***	0.673
是否参加新型合作医疗(“是”为参照组)	-0.257^***	0.774
常量	-3.194	0.041