地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (12): 2094-2104.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.12.011
郭新伟1,2(), 余斌1,2,*(
), 卓蓉蓉1,2, 曾菊新1,2, 颜梅艳1,3
收稿日期:
2020-01-19
修回日期:
2020-04-06
出版日期:
2020-12-28
发布日期:
2021-02-28
通讯作者:
余斌
作者简介:
郭新伟(1992— ),女,河南范县人,博士生,主要研究方向为乡村生活空间变化。E-mail: 基金资助:
GUO Xinwei1,2(), YU Bin1,2,*(
), ZHUO Rongrong1,2, ZENG Juxin1,2, YAN Meiyan1,3
Received:
2020-01-19
Revised:
2020-04-06
Online:
2020-12-28
Published:
2021-02-28
Contact:
YU Bin
Supported by:
摘要:
当代乡村就业变迁是透视乡村人地关系变化的重要视角。论文基于湖北省京山市乡村常住农户抽样调查和实地访谈数据,沿循类型—空间—模式的逻辑主线,通过变化率指数、就业转移矩阵揭示案例地区农户就业变迁特征;同时运用无序多分类Logistic回归模型进行影响因素分析。研究表明:① 2007—2017年乡村农户就业类型已由纯农就业主体演变为兼业就业主导,非农就业增加显著;② 农户就业区位距离衰减特征弱化,村域作为农户就业转移的出发源与回流汇地位突出;③ 村域纯农就业仍是乡村农户就业的主流模式,但就业方式多元化成为农户就业新趋势;④ 农户就业模式选择是农户就业需求、地方就业供给、环境就业媒介多因素综合作用的结果。研究结果能够为中国农区人地关系变化及乡村振兴战略实施提供科学信息。
郭新伟, 余斌, 卓蓉蓉, 曾菊新, 颜梅艳. 江汉平原乡村农户就业变迁及其影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(12): 2094-2104.
GUO Xinwei, YU Bin, ZHUO Rongrong, ZENG Juxin, YAN Meiyan. Change of farming households' employment and influencing factors on the Jianghan Plain[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(12): 2094-2104.
表2
京山市调查样本的社会经济属性"
属性 | 样本数/人 | 占比/% | 属性 | 样本数/人 | 占比/% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
户主性别 | 户主年龄 | ||||
男性 | 890 | 97.06 | 30岁及其以下 | 3 | 0.33 |
女性 | 27 | 2.94 | 31~40岁 | 44 | 4.80 |
户主学历 | 41~50岁 | 260 | 28.35 | ||
初中及以下 | 745 | 81.24 | 51~60岁 | 345 | 37.62 |
高中/中专 | 164 | 17.88 | 61~70岁 | 211 | 23.01 |
大专及以上 | 8 | 0.87 | 71岁及其以上 | 54 | 5.89 |
家庭18岁以下60岁以上人口数 | 家庭外出人口数 | ||||
0人 | 219 | 23.88 | 0人 | 366 | 39.91 |
1人 | 253 | 27.59 | 1人 | 208 | 22.68 |
2人 | 235 | 25.63 | 2人 | 239 | 26.06 |
3人 | 127 | 13.85 | 3人 | 51 | 5.56 |
4人及以上 | 83 | 9.05 | 4人及以上 | 53 | 5.78 |
表7
就业方式转移矩阵及转移贡献指数"
2007年 | 2017年 | 转出总数 | 转出贡献 指数/% | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | A2 | A3 | B1 | B2 | B3 | C2 | C3 | D2 | D3 | |||
A1 | 346 | 73 | 26 | 1 | 58 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 193 | 62.26 |
A2 | 11 | 111 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 10.65 |
A3 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.32 |
B1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.65 |
B2 | 19 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 16.77 |
B3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.94 |
C2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4.84 |
C3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.61 |
D2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.97 |
D3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
转入总数 | 41 | 99 | 36 | 1 | 66 | 13 | 37 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 310 | |
转入贡献指数/% | 13.23 | 31.94 | 11.61 | 0.32 | 21.29 | 4.19 | 11.94 | 3.87 | 0.97 | 0.65 |
表8
变量定义及赋值"
因素 | 变量 | 赋值 | 含义 |
---|---|---|---|
农户就业需求 | 户主年龄 | 实际值(岁) | 家庭户主年龄 |
户主学历 | 初中及以下=1;高中/中专=2;大专及以上=3 | 户主最高学历 | |
家庭就业惯习 | 10 a前村域纯农就业=1;10 a前村域兼业/非农就业=2;10 a村外兼业/非农就业=3 | 农户10 a前就业模式 | |
家庭外出就业人数 | 实际值(人) | 家庭外出就业人口总数 | |
家庭抚养人口占比 | 实际值(%) | 18岁以下及60岁以上人口占比 | |
地方就业供给 | 镇域发展水平 | 较低=1;一般=2;较高=3 | 根据镇域人均工业产值分类 |
村庄发展定位 | 一般乡村=1;一般试点乡村=2;核心试点乡村=3 | 村庄在美丽乡村试点中的政府定位 | |
环境就业媒介 | 与镇中心道路距离 | 1~5 km=3;5~10 km=2;>10 km=1 | 所在村委会到所属镇政府的道路距离 |
与县中心道路距离 | <20 km为3;20~30 km为2;>30 km为1 | 所在村委会到所属县政府的道路距离 | |
就业机会满意度 | 不满意=1;一般=2;满意=3 | 农户对就业环境建设的满意度 | |
道路交通满意度 | 不满意=1;一般=2;满意=3 | 农户对交通条件建设的满意度 | |
信息通讯满意度 | 不满意=1;一般=2;满意=3 | 农户对信息通信建设的满意度 |
表9
不同类型变量对就业模式选择影响的估计结果"
变量 | 村域纯农就业 | 村域兼业/非农就业 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
β | exp(β) | β | exp(β) | ||
截距 | -6.515 | -1.401 | |||
户主年龄 | 0.06*** | 1.062 | 0.006 | 1.006 | |
[家庭就业惯习=1] | 2.881*** | 17.832 | 1.722*** | 5.596 | |
[家庭就业惯习=2] | 0.940** | 2.560 | 4.015*** | 55.423 | |
[家庭就业惯习=3] | 0b | 0b | |||
家庭外出就业人数 | 0.227** | 1.255 | -0.072 | 0.931 | |
家庭抚养人口占比 | 0.520 | 1.682 | -0.955** | 0.385 | |
[镇域发展水平=1] | 1.244*** | 3.469 | 0.408 | 1.504 | |
[镇域发展水平=2] | 0.363 | 1.438 | 0.241 | 1.273 | |
[镇域发展水平=3] | 0b | 0b | |||
[村庄发展定位=1] | 0.613* | 1.846 | -0.805** | 0.447 | |
[村庄发展定位=2] | 0.126 | 1.134 | -1.099*** | 0.333 | |
[村庄发展定位=3] | 0b | 0b | |||
[与镇中心道路距离=1] | 0.137 | 1.147 | -0.020 | 0.980 | |
[与镇中心道路距离=2] | 0.489** | 1.631 | 0.756*** | 2.130 | |
[与镇中心道路距离=3] | 0b | 0b | |||
[就业机会满意度=1] | 0.504* | 1.655 | -0.546* | 0.579 | |
[就业机会满意度=2] | 0.147 | 1.158 | -0.045 | 0.956 | |
[就业机会满意度=3] | 0b | 0b | |||
[信息通信满意度=1] | 0.378 | 1.459 | 0.828** | 2.289 | |
[信息通信满意度=2] | 0.145 | 1.156 | 0.105 | 1.111 | |
[信息通信满意度=3] | 0b | 0b |
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