新型职业农民对城市郊区耕地利用“大棚化”转型的影响——以南京市为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.09.003

地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (9): 1294-1304.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.09.003

新型职业农民对城市郊区耕地利用“大棚化”转型的影响——以南京市为例

闫梦露¹,王柏源²,赵小风³,钟太洋^1,^*()

^1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023
^2. 中国国土勘测规划院,北京 100035
^3. 河海大学公共管理学院,南京 211100

收稿日期:2019-04-30 修回日期:2019-07-26 出版日期:2019-09-28 发布日期:2019-09-25
通讯作者: 钟太洋
作者简介:闫梦露(1996— ),女,陕西咸阳人,硕士生,主要从事土地利用变化方面的研究。E-mail:yanmenglu960507@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(No.41771189);中国国土勘测规划院招标项目(No.2018049-6)

Influence of commercialized production-oriented “new professional farmers” on the plastic tunnels transition: A case study in Nanjing City

YAN Menglu¹,WANG Baiyuan²,ZHAO Xiaofeng³,ZHONG Taiyang^1,^*()

^1. School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
^2. Chinese Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100035, China
^3. School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China

Received:2019-04-30 Revised:2019-07-26 Online:2019-09-28 Published:2019-09-25
Contact: ZHONG Taiyang
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41771189);Project from China Land Surveying and Planning Institue(No.2018049-6)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着中国农业商品化转型的不断发展,传统露天种植模式逐渐被取代,城市郊区大棚面积迅速扩张,出现较为普遍的耕地利用“大棚化”转型。与此相随,耕作者也由传统“自给自足”型农民为主逐步转变为面向市场的“新型职业农民”。然而,到目前为止,少有研究分析新型职业农民在城市郊区耕地利用“大棚化”转型中扮演的角色。论文以南京市为例,基于2018年郊区291份农户问卷调查的一手数据,构建Logistic回归模型,研究微观尺度下新型职业农民对大棚化转型的影响。结果表明：① 新型职业农民是影响郊区耕地利用大棚化转型的根本因素,其中外来职业农民大棚化种植的可能性是其他类型农民的4.7倍左右;② 新型职业农民的务农年数和经营规模对大棚化转型具有显著的正向作用,其年龄对大棚化转型的作用方向相反;③ 对研究区所有农民而言,销售占比和单位面积耕地农业年度纯利润对大棚化转型具有显著正向作用。此外,相较于坡地和梯田,平地更加有利于农民大棚化种植。

关键词: 耕地利用, 农业转型, 新型职业农民, 大棚化, 南京

Abstract:

With the continuous development of agricultural commercialization in China, traditional uncovered farmlands have been gradually replaced, the area of plastic tunnels in the suburbs of big cities expands rapidly, and the transformation of agricultural land use to "plastic tunnels" has become more common. Along with this development, farmers in the suburbs of big cities have gradually changed from the traditional "self-sufficient" farmers to the market-oriented "new professional farmers". However, so far there has been little research on the role of new professional farmers in the transformation of agricultural land use in the suburbs of big cities. In order to analyze the influence of "new professional farmers" on the transformation of agricultural land use, based on the questionnaire survey primary data of 291 farmers in eight districts of Nanjing City in 2018 and secondary data, this study constructed a Logistic regression model from the perspective of new professional farmer influences and studied the impact of new professional farmers on the transformation of plastic tunnels on a micro scale. The results show that: 1) Compared with other types of farmers, new professional farmers are the fundamental driving factor for the transformation of suburban farmland use and can significantly promote the transformation of suburban farmland use towards plastic tunnels. Holding all other variables constant, the possibility of plastic tunnels cultivation of migrant professional farmers is about 4.7 times that of other types of farmers. 2) Age of the new professional farmers, years of farming, and scale of operation are important factors affecting the transformation of plastic tunnels. The older the farmers are, the less likely they are to convert to plant cropping in plastic tunnels; the longer the number of years of farming, and the larger the scale of operation, the greater the possibility of converting to the use of plastic tunnels. 3) For all farmers who participated in the survey, sales proportion, annual net profit per unit of agriculture production, and terrain factors have a significant positive effect on the transformation of plastic tunnels.

Key words: use of cultivated land, agrarian transition, new professional farmers, plastic tunnels, Nanjing City

闫梦露,王柏源,赵小风,钟太洋. 新型职业农民对城市郊区耕地利用“大棚化”转型的影响——以南京市为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(9): 1294-1304.

YAN Menglu,WANG Baiyuan,ZHAO Xiaofeng,ZHONG Taiyang. Influence of commercialized production-oriented “new professional farmers” on the plastic tunnels transition: A case study in Nanjing City[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(9): 1294-1304.

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时段	玄武区	秦淮区	建邺区	鼓楼区	浦口区	栖霞区	雨花台区	江宁区	六合区	溧水区	高淳区
1995—2000年	0	0	0.20	0	0.15	1.14	0	0	0	0	0
2000—2005年	15.22	13.71	2.92	0.02	2.65	5.25	0.45	1.66	0.30	0.02	0.06
2005—2010年	12.83	7.20	0.41	0	6.07	4.59	0.68	8.23	8.38	2.67	4.68
2010—2015年	0	0	0	0.14	14.51	11.52	2.97	19.70	7.36	2.97	3.07

变量	变量名称	变量符号	变量说明（单位）	预期方向
被解释变量	是否大棚化	green	green=1,大棚化种植;green=0,非大棚化种植
解释变量	农民类型（新型职业农民）	npp	npp=1,是; npp=0,不是	+
	年龄	age	问卷调研数据(岁)	-
	性别	gender	男=1,女=0
	受教育程度	edu	1=小学以下,2=小学,3=初中,4=高中,5=本科及以上(包括大专)	+
	务农年数	agryear	问卷调研数据(a)	+
	经营规模	acreage	现种植土地面积(亩)	+
	销售占比	rate	销售面积/种植面积	+
	农业纯利润	profit	农业总利润/经营规模(万元/亩)	+
	地形因素	slope	1=平地,2=坡田,3=梯田	-

变量	样本数	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
是否大棚化	290	0.31	0.46	0	1
农民类型	291	0.31	0.46	0	1
年龄(岁)	290	59.36	11.66	29	89
性别	291	0.50	0.50	0	1
受教育程度	289	2.09	0.99	1	5
务农年数(a)	288	33.64	17.12	1	70
经营规模(亩)	291	8.13	30.62	0.03	500
销售占比	291	0.47	0.45	0	1
单位面积耕地农业年度纯利润(万元/亩)	265	0.42	1.35	0	20
地形因素	291	1.18	0.43	1	3

农民类型	本地农民	外来农民	合计
新型职业农民	16	65	81
非新型职业农民	8	0	8
合计	24	65	89

农民类型	年龄/岁	性别	文化程度	务农年数/a	经营规模/亩	销售占比	地形	单位面积耕地农业年度纯利润/(万元/亩)
本地职业农民	56	0.60	1.90	28.81	14.10	0.77	1.00	0.76
外来职业农民	49	0.70	2.44	18.65	16.96	0.96	1.11	0.74

新型职业农民对城市郊区耕地利用“大棚化”转型的影响——以南京市为例

Influence of commercialized production-oriented “new professional farmers” on the plastic tunnels transition: A case study in Nanjing City

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变量名	模型1		模型2		模型3
变量名	回归系数	大棚化种植的几率比	回归系数	大棚化种植的几率比	回归系数	大棚化种植的几率比
农民类型	2.769^***	15.941
外来农民					1.556^**	4.738
年龄	-0.081^*	0.922	-0.144^*	0.866	-0.064^**	0.937
性别	0.695	2.002	-0.185	0.831	0.696	2.005
受教育程度	-0.577^*	0.562	-0.323	0.724	-0.464^*	0.629
务农年数	0.014	1.014	0.060^*	1.062	0.003	1.002
经营规模	0.140^***	1.150	0.165^**	1.179	0.253^***	1.288
销售占比	1.756^**	5.787	0.219	1.245	2.508^***	12.277
地形因素	-1.784^**	0.168	-0.768	0.464	-2.229^***	0.108
单位面积耕地农业年度纯利润	0.158^**	1.171	2.098	8.148	0.204^***	1.226
常数项	2.986		6.974		2.278
样本数	263		84		263
Log pseudolikelihood	-51.594		-21.710		-56.265
Wald chi2(9)	91.210		20.130		62.400
Prob>chi2	<0.001		0.010		<0.001
Pseudo R²	0.684		0.292		0.655

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