地理科学进展 ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 18-25.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.02.003
李鹤1,2, 张平宇1, 程叶青1
收稿日期:
2007-12-01
修回日期:
2008-01-01
出版日期:
2008-03-25
发布日期:
2008-03-25
作者简介:
李鹤(1980-), 男, 内蒙古通辽人, 博士研究生, 主要从事资源环境与区域发展研究.E- mail: zhangpy@neigae.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目(40635030)、国家重点基础研究发展计划项目专题(2004CB418507- 2)共同资助.
LI He1,2, ZHANG Pingyu1, CHENG Yeqing1
Received:
2007-12-01
Revised:
2008-01-01
Online:
2008-03-25
Published:
2008-03-25
摘要:
脆弱性研究是全球变化及可持续性科学领域关注的热点问题和重要的分析工具, 随着脆弱性研究受到越 来越多的关注, 对脆弱性的概念和评价方法的研究日益深入。对国内外相关研究中出现的脆弱性概念进行了归纳 总结, 并深入讨论了不同学者就脆弱性概念初步达成的共识及存在的分歧, 在此基础上明确了脆弱性概念的内涵。 依据脆弱性评价的思路, 将国内外脆弱性研究中出现脆弱性评价方法分为五大类, 分析了各种评价方法的优缺点, 指出了脆弱性评价中应遵循的基本原则。最后, 结合脆弱性研究的发展趋势, 指出面向多重扰动的脆弱性评价、耦 合系统的脆弱性评价、复杂系统的不确定问题、脆弱性评价的尺度问题等是目前脆弱性评价研究中亟待开展的研 究内容。
李鹤,张平宇,程叶青. 脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J]. 地理科学进展, 2008, 27(2): 18-25.
LI He,ZHANG Pingyu,CHENG Yeqing. Concepts and Assessment Methods of Vulner ability[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2008, 27(2): 18-25.
[1] Janssena M A, Schoon M L, Ke W, et al. Scholarly net works on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16( 3) : 240~252. [2] Kates R W, Clark W C, Corell R, et al. Environment and Development: Sustainability Science.Science, 2001, 292: 641~642. [3] IHDP. IHDP update, Update Issue 3/01 Focus: Vulnerability. IHDP, 2001.Available on line at: (http://www.ihdp. org). [4] McCarthy J J, Canziani O F, Leary N A, et al. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Third Assessment Report of the IPCC.Cambridge UK: University Press, 2001. [5] Moran E, Ojima D, Buchman N, et al. Global land project: Science plan and implementation strategy.IGBP Report No.53/IHDP Report No.19, 2005.Available on line at:(http: //www.igbp.net). [6] Kasperson J X, Kasperson R E.International Workshop on Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change.Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, Sweden, 2001. [7] Downing T E. Towards a Vulnerability Science?. IHDP Newsletter Update, issue 3, 2000. [8] Cutter S L. The Vulnerability of Science and the Science of Vulnerability.Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2003, 93(1): 1~12. [9] 史培军, 王静爱, 陈婧等. 当代地理学之人地相互作用 研究的趋向———全球变化人类行为计划(IHDP)第六届 开放会议透视. 地理学报, 2006, 61(2): 115~126. [10] Tunner II B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P A, ea al. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. 达式PNAS, 2003, 100( 14) : 8074~8079. [11] Rygel L, O'sullivan D, Yarnal B.A Method for Constructing a Social Vulnerability Index: An Application to Hurricane Storm Surges in a Developed Country.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2006, 11 ( 3) : 741~764. [12] Luers A L, Lobell D B, Sklar L S, et al. A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.Global Environmental Change, 2003, 13( 4) : 255~267. [13] Timmerman P.Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society: A Review of Models and Possible Climatic Applications. Toronto, Canada: Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, 1981. [14] White G F. Natural Hazards.Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1974. [15] Cutter S L.Living with risk: The Geography of Technological Hazards.London: Edward Arnold, 1993. [16] Bogard W C.Bringing Social Theory to Hazards Research: Conditions and Consequences of the Mitigation of Environmental Hazards.Sociological Perspectives, 1988, 31 (2): 147~168. [17] Adger W N, Kelly P. M. Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1999, 4 (3- 4): 253~266. [18] Zapata R, Caballeros R, Un tema del desarrollo: vulnerabilidad frente a los desastres.CEPAL, Naciones Unidas, Mexico, DF, 2000. [19] Dow K.Exploring differences in our common futures: the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change. Geoforum, 1992, 23: 417~436. [20] Vogel C.Vulnerability and global environmental change. World Commission of Environment and Development, LUCC Newsletter 3, 1998. [21] 刘燕华, 李秀彬. 脆弱性生态环境与可持续发展. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2001. [22] Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program. “Vulnerability and Resilience for Coupled Human- Environment Systems: Report of the Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program 2001 Summer Study.”, Airlie House, Warrenton, Virginia, 2001. [23] Adger W N.Vulnerability.Global Environmental Change,2006, 16( 3) : 268~281. [24] Young O R, Berkhout F, Gallopin G C, et al.The globalization of socio- ecological systems: An agenda for scientific research.Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16( 3) : 304~ 316. [25] Newell B, Crumley C L, Hassan N, et al. A conceptual template for integrative human – environment research. Global Environmental Change Part A, 2005, 15 (4): 299~ 307. [26] Gallopín G C.Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 293~303. [27] Smit B, Wandel J.Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 282~ 292. [28] Füssel H M.Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research.Global Environmental Change, 2007, 17( 2) : 155~167. [29] 方修琦, 殷培红. 弹性、脆弱性和适应———IHDP 三个核 心概念综述. 地理科学进展, 2007, 26( 5) : 11~22. [30] Bohle H G.Vulnerability and criticality: perspectives from social geography.IHDP Update 2/01, article 1, 2001.[online]. URL: http://www.ihdp.uni- bonn.de/html/publications/ update/IHD PUpdate01_02.h [31] Yohe G, Tol R.S J. Indicators for social and economic coping capacity- moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity.Global Environmental Change, 2002, 12( 1) : 25~40. [32] Gallopín G C. A systemic synthesis of the relations between vulnerability, hazard, exposure and impact, aimed at policy identification.Handbook for Estimating the Socio- Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters, ECLAC, Mexico, D.F., 2003. [33] Mitchell J, Devine N, Jagger K. A contextual model of natural hazards. Geographical Review 1989, 79: 391~409. [34] Available online: http://www.fews.org/fewspub.html. [35] Moss R H, Malone E L, Brenkert A L. Vulnerability to climate change: a quantitative approach.Prepared for the US Department of Energy, 2002.Available online: http://www. globalchange. umd.edu/cgi - bin/Details.pl?sref =PNNL - 13765. [36] Cutter S L, Boruff B J, Shirley W L.Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards.Social Science Quarterly, 2003, 84 ( 2) : 242~261. [37] 黄方, 刘湘南, 张养贞. GIS 支持下的吉林省西部生态 环境脆弱态势评价研究. 地理科学, 2003, 23(1): 95~100. [38] 冯利华, 黄亦君. 生态环境脆弱度的综合评价. 热带地 理, 2003, 23(2): 102~114. [39] 熊文, 吴玉鸣. 中国经济增长与环境脆弱性的因果及 冲击响应分析. 资源科学, 2006, 28( 5) : 17~23. [40] Thirumalaivasan D, Karmegam M, Venugopal K. AHP - DRASTIC: software for specific aquifer vulnerability assessment using DRASTIC model and GIS.Environmental Modelling & Software, 2003, 18( 7) : 645~656. [41] 贺新春, 邵东国, 陈南祥. 地下水环境脆弱性分区研究. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2005, 38( 1) : 73~78. [42] 赵艳霞, 何磊, 刘寿东等. 农业生态系统脆弱性评价方 法. 生态学杂志, 2007, 26(5): 754~758. [43] 倪深海, 顾颖, 王会容. 中国农业干旱脆弱性分区研究. 水科学进展, 2005, 16( 5) : 705~709. [44] 万洪秀, 孙占东, 王润. 博斯腾湖湿地生态脆弱性评价 研究. 干旱区地理, 2006, 29( 2) : 248~254. [45] Dixon B. Groundwater vulnerability mapping: A GIS and fuzzy rule based integrated tool. Applied Geography, 2005, 25(4); 327~347. [46] Martino F D, Sessa S, Loia V. A fuzzy- based tool for modelization and analysis of the vulnerability of aquifers: a case study.International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2005, 38( 1) : 99~111. [47] 樊运晓, 高朋会, 王红娟. 模糊综合评判区域承灾体脆弱 性的理论模型. 灾害学, 2003, 18( 3) : 20~23. [48] Cutter S L, Mitchell J T, Scott M S. Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina.Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2000, 90( 4) : 713~737. [49] 郝璐, 王静爱, 史培军等. 草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评 价———以内蒙古牧区为例. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12( 2) : 51~57. [50] Metzger M J, Leemans R, Schroter D. A multidisciplinary multi - scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change.International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2005, 7: 253~267. [51] O'Brien K, Leichenkob R, Kelkar U, et al. Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India.Global Environmental Change, 2004, 14 ( 4) : 303~313. [52] 史培军. 三论灾害研究的理论与实践. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11( 3) : 1~9. [53] Luers A L, Lobell D B, Sklar L S, et al. A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico.Global Environmental Change, 2003, 13( 4) : 255~267. [54] 陈鸿起, 汪妮, 申毅荣等. 基于欧式贴近度的模糊物元 模型在水安全评价中的应用. 西安理工大学学报, 2007, 23( 1) : 37~42. [55] 祝云舫, 王忠郴. 城市环境风险程度排序的模糊分析方 法. 自然灾害学报, 2006, 15( 1) : 155~158. [56] 邹君, 杨玉蓉, 田亚平等. 南方丘陵区农业水资源脆弱性概念与评价. 自然资源学报, 2007, 22( 2) : 302~310. [57] Smith E R, Tran L T, O'Neill R V. Regional Vulnerability Assessment for the Mid - Atlantic Region: Evaluation of Integration Methods and Assessments Results.EPA Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program, EPA/ 600/R- 03/082, 2003. [58] 王黎明, 关庆锋, 冯仁国等. 全球变化视角下人地系统 研究面临的几个问题探讨. 地理科学, 2003, 23(4): 391~ 397. [59] 张平宇. 全球环境变化研究与人文地理学的参与问题. 世界地理研究, 2007, 16( 4) : 76~81. [60] 宋长青, 冷疏影, 吕克解. 地理学在全球变化研究中的学 科地位及重要作用. 地球科学进展, 2000, 15 ( 3) : 318~ 320. |
[1] | 尹莎, 杨新军, 陈佳. 人地系统适应性研究进展:概念、理论框架与方法[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(2): 330-342. |
[2] | 陈明星, 黄莘绒, 黄耿志, 杨燕珊. 新型城镇化与非正规就业:规模、格局及社会融合[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(1): 50-60. |
[3] | 陈睿山, 赵志强, 徐迪, 陈轶. 城市和城市群可持续发展指数研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(1): 61-72. |
[4] | 吴健生, 李铠杨, 赵宇豪. 基于改进三维足迹模型的关中地区土地自然资本利用状况分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(8): 1345-1355. |
[5] | 李玉恒, 宋传垚, 阎佳玉, 黄惠倩. 深度贫困地区乡村地域系统演化研究——以河北省阳原县为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(6): 951-959. |
[6] | 薛倩, 谢苗苗, 郭强, 王亚男, 武蓉蓉, 刘琦. 地理学视角下城市高温热浪脆弱性评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(4): 685-694. |
[7] | 马恩朴, 蔡建明, 韩燕, 廖柳文, 林静. 人地系统远程耦合的研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(2): 310-326. |
[8] | 杨晴青, 杨新军, 高岩辉. 1980年以来黄土高原半干旱区乡村人居环境系统脆弱性时序演变——以陕西省佳县为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(5): 756-771. |
[9] | 张军泽, 王帅, 赵文武, 刘焱序, 傅伯杰. 地球界限概念框架及其研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(4): 465-476. |
[10] | 王成, 李颢颖, 何焱洲, 马小苏, 周明茗. 重庆直辖以来乡村人居环境可持续发展力及其时空分异研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(4): 556-566. |
[11] | 叶超, 尹梁明, 殷清眉, 徐建华. 地理学是一门脆弱的学科吗?——哈佛大学撤销地理系事件及其反思[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(3): 312-319. |
[12] | 张会, 李铖, 程炯, 吴志峰, 吴艳艳. 基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 175-190. |
[13] | 汤青, 李扬, 陈明星, 徐勇. 半城镇化农民可持续生计与农村可持续发展——理论框架、研究进展及未来展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(8): 1022-1030. |
[14] | 李玉恒, 阎佳玉, 武文豪, 刘彦随. 世界乡村转型历程与可持续发展展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(5): 627-635. |
[15] | 刘艳华, 徐勇. 扶贫模式可持续减贫效应的分析框架及机理探析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(4): 567-578. |
|