关键词: 定量模拟, 模型, 气候变化, 植物种

Abstract: While current projections of climatic change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree uncertainty, the potential effects of climatic change on plant species and their combined units population, community and vegetation are of increasing concern largely due to their huge economic value and ecological service functions. Many researchers have simulated the climatic effects on plants species or vegetation by using various models last decade. In sum, these models are classified into five groups, namely bioclimatic classification approach, ecological response surface approach, stand model approach, plant physiological models, and statistical model approach. In this paper, the author gives a critical review on advantages and disadvantages of the models, and finally indicates the potential trends of these models. In conclusion, various models should be reformulated with perfect tradeoff between robustness and sensibility. Only when these models reflect more accurately realistic relationships between plant species or vegetation and climatic variables, can they be employed to simulate responses of plant species or vegetation to rapid change in climate.

Key words: climatic change, models, Plant species, quantitative simulation