地理科学进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 124-134.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.01.012
收稿日期:
2020-06-28
修回日期:
2020-08-25
出版日期:
2021-01-28
发布日期:
2021-03-28
通讯作者:
杨山
作者简介:
范擎宇(1990— ),女,湖南衡阳人,讲师,博士,研究方向为城乡发展与空间规划。E-mail: 基金资助:
Received:
2020-06-28
Revised:
2020-08-25
Online:
2021-01-28
Published:
2021-03-28
Contact:
YANG Shan
Supported by:
摘要:
基于长三角一体化和区域协调发展的国家战略,在测度2001—2016年长三角地区41个城市的城镇化协调水平后,运用泰尔指数、重心轨迹、热点分析和空间计量模型等方法,分析长三角地区城镇化协调发展的空间特征及形成机理。结果表明:① 长三角地区城镇化协调水平总体差异呈波动下降趋势,省内差异不断缩小但省域间的差异在不断扩大;长三角地区城镇化协调水平整体呈东高西低的分布态势,西北—东南方向的城镇化协调发展动态演化格局变化不大,历年重心较为稳定,但空间关联范围和离散程度呈扩大趋势。② 从空间的集聚特征来看,长三角地区城镇化协调水平有显著正向空间自相关性,热点区渐向经济比较发达的上海、苏南、浙北等地区集聚,冷点区稳定分布在皖北、皖南和浙南。③ 影响城镇化协调发展空间特征的各因素均显著为正,经济发展水平仍然主导着区域城镇化协调发展,人口集聚效应对邻近城市城镇化协调水平提升更加明显,充分发挥城镇化高协调区对低协调区的带动作用,实现长三角地区均衡发展。
范擎宇, 杨山. 长三角地区城镇化协调发展的空间特征及形成机理[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(1): 124-134.
FAN Qingyu, YANG Shan. Spatial characteristics and formation mechanism of coordinated development of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(1): 124-134.
表1
长三角地区城镇化协调水平重心参数"
年份 | 重心坐标参数 | 标准差椭圆参数 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
重心(经度, 纬度) | 方向 | 偏移/km | 转角/(°) | 主轴半径/km | 辅轴半径/km | ||
2001 | 119°06′43″E, 31°32′28″N | — | — | 141.357 | 277.469 | 166.897 | |
2005 | 119°07′00″E, 31°29′54″N | 东南 | 4.755 | 141.357 | 278.890 | 168.875 | |
2009 | 119°09′20″E, 31°30′32″N | 东北 | 3.919 | 142.809 | 278.599 | 169.160 | |
2013 | 119°13′50″E, 31°31′39″N | 东北 | 7.476 | 144.287 | 277.629 | 169.267 | |
2016 | 119°08′01″E, 31°33′47″N | 西北 | 10.110 | 142.648 | 278.774 | 168.932 |
表2
城镇化协调水平与影响因子的Granger因果关系检验结果"
原假设 | F统计量 | 概率(P) | 结论 |
---|---|---|---|
Y不是Pgdp的Granger原因 | 0.064 | 0.938 | 接受原假设 |
Pgdp不是Y的Granger原因 | 5.560 | 0.004 | 拒绝原假设*** |
Y不是Tra的Granger原因 | 10.126 | <0.001 | 拒绝原假设*** |
Tra不是Y的Granger原因 | 9.389 | <0.001 | 拒绝原假设*** |
Y不是Pop的Granger原因 | 0.501 | 0.524 | 接受原假设 |
Pop不是Y的Granger原因 | 6.358 | <0.001 | 拒绝原假设*** |
Y不是Tec的Granger原因 | 25.366 | <0.001 | 拒绝原假设*** |
Tec不是Y的Granger原因 | 0.566 | <0.001 | 拒绝原假设*** |
Y不是Gov的Granger原因 | 1.587 | 0.164 | 接受原假设 |
Gov不是Y的Granger原因 | 12.208 | <0.001 | 拒绝原假设*** |
表4
长三角地区协调水平演变的SDM回归结果"
变量 | NF | TF | SF | STF | 变量 | NF | TF | SF | STF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pgdp | 0.441* | 0.555* | 0.601** | 0.542** | W*Pgdp | 0.302** | 0.289* | 0.311** | 0.262** |
Tra | 0.207* | 0.362* | 0.378** | 0.241** | W*Tra | 0.406* | 0.241** | 0.305* | 0.157* |
Pop | 0.102** | 0.147* | 0.301* | 0.158 | W*Pop | 0.204* | 0.204* | 0.196 | 0.457 |
Tec | 0.268* | 0.458** | 0.324** | 0.314* | W*Tec | 0.356* | 0.225** | 0.241** | 0.238* |
Gov | 0.254* | 0.347** | 0.365*** | 0.401** | W*Gov | 0.044 | 0.124** | 0.187* | 0.224** |
Adj.R2 | 0.854 | 0.768 | 0.898 | 0.505 | δ | 0.350 | 0.247** | 0.275** | 0.089* |
Loglikelihood | -160.247 | -145.260 | -88.052 | -89.222 |
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