长三角地区城镇化协调发展的空间特征及形成机理

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.01.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于长三角一体化和区域协调发展的国家战略,在测度2001—2016年长三角地区41个城市的城镇化协调水平后,运用泰尔指数、重心轨迹、热点分析和空间计量模型等方法,分析长三角地区城镇化协调发展的空间特征及形成机理。结果表明：① 长三角地区城镇化协调水平总体差异呈波动下降趋势,省内差异不断缩小但省域间的差异在不断扩大;长三角地区城镇化协调水平整体呈东高西低的分布态势,西北—东南方向的城镇化协调发展动态演化格局变化不大,历年重心较为稳定,但空间关联范围和离散程度呈扩大趋势。② 从空间的集聚特征来看,长三角地区城镇化协调水平有显著正向空间自相关性,热点区渐向经济比较发达的上海、苏南、浙北等地区集聚,冷点区稳定分布在皖北、皖南和浙南。③ 影响城镇化协调发展空间特征的各因素均显著为正,经济发展水平仍然主导着区域城镇化协调发展,人口集聚效应对邻近城市城镇化协调水平提升更加明显,充分发挥城镇化高协调区对低协调区的带动作用,实现长三角地区均衡发展。

关键词: 城镇化, 协调发展, 空间特征, 溢出效应, 长三角地区

Abstract:

Based on the national strategy of Yangtze River Delta economic integration and regional coordinated development and after measuring the urbanization coordination level of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2001 to 2016, this study analyzed the spatial characteristics and formation mechanism of the coordinated development of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta by using the methods of Theil Index, center of gravity track, hotspot analysis, and spatial econometric model. The results show that: 1) the overall difference of urbanization coordination level in the Yangtze River Delta is fluctuating and decreasing, and intra-provincial differences are shrinking while the difference between the provinces is expanding; the spatial distribution of the coordination level of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta is generally higher in the east and lower in the west. The pattern of coordinated development of urbanization has experienced little change in the northwest-southeast direction and the center of gravity is relatively stable over the years, but the spatial correlation scope and dispersion degree are expanding. 2) According to the characteristics of spatial agglomeration, there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the coordination level of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta. The hotspots are gradually converging to the economically developed areas such as Shanghai, Southern Jiangsu, and Northern Zhejiang. The cold spots are stably distributed in Northern Anhui, Southern Anhui, and southern Zhejiang. 3) All factors that affect the spatial characteristics of coordinated development of urbanization are significantly positive. The level of economic development still dominates coordinated regional development of urbanization. Population agglomeration is more obvious for the improvement of the level of coordinated development of urbanization of neighboring cities. Giving full play to the driving role of the highly coordinated area of urbanization will realize the balanced development of the Yangtze River Delta.

Key words: urbanization, coordinated development, spatial characteristics, spillover effect, Yangtze River Delta region

范擎宇, 杨山. 长三角地区城镇化协调发展的空间特征及形成机理[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(1): 124-134.

FAN Qingyu, YANG Shan. Spatial characteristics and formation mechanism of coordinated development of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(1): 124-134.

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年份	重心坐标参数			标准差椭圆参数
年份	重心(经度, 纬度)	方向	偏移/km	转角/(°)	主轴半径/km	辅轴半径/km
2001	119°06′43″E, 31°32′28″N	—	—	141.357	277.469	166.897
2005	119°07′00″E, 31°29′54″N	东南	4.755	141.357	278.890	168.875
2009	119°09′20″E, 31°30′32″N	东北	3.919	142.809	278.599	169.160
2013	119°13′50″E, 31°31′39″N	东北	7.476	144.287	277.629	169.267
2016	119°08′01″E, 31°33′47″N	西北	10.110	142.648	278.774	168.932

原假设	F统计量	概率(P)	结论
Y不是Pgdp的Granger原因	0.064	0.938	接受原假设
Pgdp不是Y的Granger原因	5.560	0.004	拒绝原假设^***
Y不是Tra的Granger原因	10.126	<0.001	拒绝原假设^***
Tra不是Y的Granger原因	9.389	<0.001	拒绝原假设^***
Y不是Pop的Granger原因	0.501	0.524	接受原假设
Pop不是Y的Granger原因	6.358	<0.001	拒绝原假设^***
Y不是Tec的Granger原因	25.366	<0.001	拒绝原假设^***
Tec不是Y的Granger原因	0.566	<0.001	拒绝原假设^***
Y不是Gov的Granger原因	1.587	0.164	接受原假设
Gov不是Y的Granger原因	12.208	<0.001	拒绝原假设^***

检验方法	统计值	概率	检验方法	统计值	概率
LM-spatial lag	234.98	<0.01	Wald-spatial lag	256.56	<0.01
Robust LM-spatial lag	19.36	<0.01	LR-spatial lag	246.23	<0.01
LM-spatial error	276.38	<0.01	Wald-spatial error	298.28	<0.01
Robust LM-spatial error	75.16	<0.01	LR-spatial error	401.29	<0.01

变量	NF	TF	SF	STF	变量	NF	TF	SF	STF
Pgdp	0.441^*	0.555^*	0.601^**	0.542^**	W*Pgdp	0.302^**	0.289^*	0.311^**	0.262^**
Tra	0.207^*	0.362^*	0.378^**	0.241^**	W*Tra	0.406^*	0.241^**	0.305^*	0.157^*
Pop	0.102^**	0.147^*	0.301^*	0.158	W*Pop	0.204^*	0.204^*	0.196	0.457
Tec	0.268^*	0.458^**	0.324^**	0.314^*	W*Tec	0.356^*	0.225^**	0.241^**	0.238^*
Gov	0.254^*	0.347^**	0.365^***	0.401^**	W*Gov	0.044	0.124^**	0.187^*	0.224^**
Adj.R²	0.854	0.768	0.898	0.505	δ	0.350	0.247^**	0.275^**	0.089^*
Loglikelihood	-160.247	-145.260	-88.052	-89.222

空间效应	Pgdp	Gov	Tra	Tec	Pop
直接效应	0.302^***	0.214^***	0.207^**	0.202^*	0.127^**
间接效应	0.156^***	0.131^*	0.123^*	0.112^*	0.152^*
总效应	0.458^***	0.345^*	0.330^**	0.314^*	0.279^*