中国县域乡村地域多功能格局及影响因素识别

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.09.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

论文以中国大陆县域为研究单元,构建乡村地域多功能评价指标体系,利用熵权法、半变异函数和地理探测器等模型,对2000—2015年中国乡村多功能指数进行综合测评,揭示中国县域乡村地域多功能的空间分异特征,定量识别乡村地域多功能空间分异的影响因素。研究结果表明：① 中国乡村地域多功能在空间上呈现出平原、东部沿海等地区高值集聚,高原、山地等地区低值集聚,各县域乡村地域多功能整体呈现出逐渐提升态势;② 经济发展功能和社会保障功能对乡村地域多功能的贡献率逐渐增大,农业生产功能和生态保育功能对乡村地域多功能的贡献率逐渐减小;③ 2000—2015年,中国大陆范围内县域乡村地域多功能空间自相关范围和强度总体呈现减小的趋势,随机性因子成为乡村地域多功能空间分异的主要驱动力;④ 县域经济整体发展水平和财政收入是影响乡村地域多功能空间分异的主导因素;各影响因素之间的两两交互作用会增强乡村地域多功能的空间分异;社会环境因素对乡村地域多功能空间分异的影响程度逐渐上升,自然环境因素的影响程度逐渐下降。

关键词: 地域多功能, 乡村发展, 半变异函数, 地理探测器, 中国

Abstract:

To reveal the spatial differentiation characteristics of rural multifunctionality in Chinese county areas and quantitatively identify the influencing factors of spatial differentiation of rural multifunctionality, this study comprehensively evaluated rural multifunctionality at the county level in China from 2000 to 2015 by constructing an evaluation index system, using entropy weight method, semi-variance function, and geodetector method. The main results are as follows: 1) The spatial distribution of rural multifunctionality was uneven. High-value regions of rural multifunctionality were concentrated in the plain areas and the eastern coasts of China. Low-value regions were concentrated on the plateaus and in the mountain regions. Rural multifunctionality presents a gradual upward temporal trend as a whole. 2) The contribution rate of economic development function and social security function to rural multifunctionality gradually increased, and the contribution rate of agricultural production function and ecological conservation function to rural multifunctionality gradually decreased. 3) From 2000 to 2015, the range and intensity of spatial auto-correlation of rural multifunctionality gradually decreased at the county level in China. Random factors became the driving forces of spatial differentiation of rural multifunctionality. 4) Economic development and fiscal revenue of counties were the main factors that affect the spatial differentiation of rural multifunctionality. The interaction of different influencing factors enhanced the spatial differentiation of rural multifunctionality. The degree of influence of social factors was gradually rising and the degree of influence of natural factors was gradually decreasing over time.

Key words: territorial multifunctionality, rural development, semi-variance function, geodetector, China

杨忍,罗秀丽,陈燕纯. 中国县域乡村地域多功能格局及影响因素识别[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(9): 1316-1328.

YANG Ren,LUO Xiuli,CHEN Yanchun. Spatial pattern and influencing factors of rural multifunctionality at county level in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(9): 1316-1328.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标权重	指标效应	计算方法
乡村地域多功能	经济发展功能 (0.5565)	地区生产总值	0.0932	+	来自年度统计年鉴
		地均生产总值	0.1395	+	地区生产总值/区域土地总面积
		财政贡献量	0.1336	+	地方财政收入
		地均财政贡献量	0.1869	+	地方财政收入/区域土地总面积
		产业结构	0.0033	+	第二、三产业产值/地区生产总值
	农业生产功能 (0.2707)	第一产业增加值	0.0500	+	来自年度统计年鉴
		人均第一产业增加值	0.0309	+	第一产业增加值/区域户籍总人口
		人均粮食占有量	0.0403	+	粮食总产量/区域户籍总人口
		人均肉类占有量	0.0356	+	肉类总产量/区域户籍总人口
		人均非粮农作物占有量	0.1139	+	(油料+棉花)/区域户籍总人口
	生态保育功能 (0.0172)	生态脆弱性	0.0076	-	地形坡度
	生态保育功能 (0.0172)	植被覆盖度	0.0096	+	NDVI指数
	社会保障功能 (0.1556)	医疗卫生条件	0.0212	+	医院床位数/区域户籍总人口
		社会福利水平	0.0755	+	社会福利院床位数/区域户籍总人口
		人均储蓄存款	0.0589	+	城乡居民储蓄存款余额/区域户籍人口

判据	交互作用结果
q(X₁∩X₂)<min(q(X₁),q(X₂))	非线性减弱
min(q(X₁),q(X₂))<q(X₁∩X₂)<max(q(X₁),q(X₂))	单因子非线性减弱
q(X₁∩X₂)>max(q(X₁),q(X₂))	双因子增强
q(X₁∩X₂)=q(X₁)+q(X₂)	独立
q(X₁∩X₂)>q(X₁)+q(X₂)	非线性增强

年份	变程/km	块金值(C₀)	基台值(C₀+C)	块金系数[C₀/(C₀+C)]	R2	残差(RSS)
2000	2379	0.0558	0.2136	26.12%	0.9810	0.0007
2008	2395	0.0726	0.2822	25.73%	0.9850	0.0010
2015	2093	0.0981	0.3192	30.73%	0.9740	0.0019

2000年		2008年		2015年
因子排序	q	因子排序	q	因子排序	q
地区生产总值(x₇)	0.59^**	地区生产总值(x₇)	0.72^**	地区生产总值(x₇)	0.72^**
财政预算收入(x₈)	0.41^**	财政预算收入(x₈)	0.63^**	财政预算收入(x₈)	0.70^**
规模以上工业总产值(x₁₃)	0.37^**	规模以上工业总产值(x₁₃)	0.61^**	规模以上工业总产值(x₁₃)	0.59^**
规模以上工业总数(x₁₄)	0.35^**	规模以上工业总数(x₁₄)	0.53^**	规模以上工业总数(x₁₄)	0.58^**
人口密度(x₁₀)	0.34^**	固定资产投资额(x₉)	0.50^**	固定资产投资额(x₉)	0.58^**
平均高程(x₅)	0.34^**	人口密度(x₁₀)	0.30^**	平均坡度(x₆)	0.22^**
平均坡度(x₆)	0.33^**	平均坡度(x₆)	0.23^**	人口密度(x₁₀)	0.21^**
农业机械总动力(x₁₁)	0.32^**	平均高程(x₅)	0.23^**	平均高程(x₅)	0.20^**
固定资产投资额(x₉)	0.19^**	农业机械总动力(x₁₁)	0.14^**	第一产业产值占GDP比例(x₁₂)	0.15^**
年均气温(x₁)	0.11^**	第一产业产值占GDP比例(x₁₂)	0.13^**	农业机械总动力(x₁₁)	0.08^**
第一产业产值占GDP比例(x₁₂)	0.11^**	年均气温(x₁)	0.07^**	年均气温(x₁)	0.07^**
年均NDVI(x₃)	0.07^**	年均NDVI(x₃)	0.07^**	年均NDVI(x₃)	0.04^**
土壤质地(x₄)	0.04^**	年均降水(x₂)	0.04^**	年均降水(x₂)	0.04^**
年均降水(x₂)	0.02^**	土壤质地(x₄)	0.02^**	土壤质地(x₄)	0.03^**

因子	x₁	x₂	x₃	x₄	x₅	x₆	x₇	x₈	x₉	x₁₀	x₁₁	x₁₂	x₁₃	x₁₄
x₁	0.0376
x₂	0.1167	0.0733
x₃	0.1931	0.1934	0.0397
x₄	0.0969	0.1061	0.1247	0.0297
x₅	0.2253	0.2314	0.2348	0.2236	0.1967
x₆	0.3416	0.2867	0.2809	0.2646	0.2782	0.2170
x₇	0.7298	0.7338	0.7272	0.7393	0.7621	0.7643	0.7179
x₈	0.7196	0.7169	0.7208	0.7143	0.7681	0.7793	0.7770	0.6977
x₉	0.6227	0.6108	0.5941	0.5907	0.6242	0.6471	0.7503	0.7548	0.5756
x₁₀	0.3903	0.2546	0.2765	0.2499	0.3089	0.3120	0.7427	0.7459	0.6628	0.2142
x₁₁	0.1333	0.1562	0.1097	0.1124	0.2107	0.2391	0.7526	0.7542	0.6613	0.3324	0.0820
x₁₂	0.2495	0.2694	0.2122	0.2197	0.3579	0.3675	0.7269	0.7063	0.5980	0.3584	0.2380	0.1482
x₁₃	0.6366	0.6327	0.5997	0.6160	0.6523	0.6537	0.7350	0.7506	0.7018	0.6627	0.6642	0.6034	0.5884
x₁₄	0.5964	0.6157	0.6293	0.6066	0.6406	0.6719	0.7567	0.7578	0.7014	0.6468	0.6157	0.6143	0.6839	0.5803