地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2001, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (3): 254-261.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2001.03.008

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气候增暖背景下的冬小麦种植北界研究——以辽宁省为例

郝志新1, 郑景云1, 陶向新2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;
    2. 沈阳农业大学,辽宁沈阳110161
  • 收稿日期:2001-08-01 修回日期:2001-08-01 出版日期:2001-08-24 发布日期:2001-08-24
  • 作者简介:郝志新(1975-),女,博士研究生,研究方向为全球变化。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(49831080);中国科学院项目(KZCX2-314)

A Study on Northern Boundary of Winter Wheat during Climate Warming: A Case Study in Liaoning Province

HAO Zhi xin1, ZHENG Jing yun1, TAO Xiang xin2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Shenyang Agricultural University, Liaoning 110161, China
  • Received:2001-08-01 Revised:2001-08-01 Online:2001-08-24 Published:2001-08-24

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摘要： 本文以辽宁省 1 991～ 1 999年冬小麦地理播种试验观测资料和现代气象观测资料为基础 ,系统研究了辽宁省冬小麦的种植北界问题。根据试验观测资料 ,利用灰色关联分析方法 ,揭示出越冬前积温、越冬前降水、越冬期负积温以及 5～ 6月份降水是影响冬麦种植的 4个关键性影响因子。通过对逐年越冬前活动积温所作的分析 ,得到了气候保证率在80 %以上的北界 ,并利用负地积温指标对所确定的北界进行了验证。结论是辽宁省冬麦可北移至本溪—抚顺—法库—彰武—阜新—北票—朝阳一线 (约 42 .5°N)。

关键词: 冬小麦种植北界, 灰色关联, 辽宁省

Abstract: In this paper, based on geographic planting data of winter wheat and present meteorological data, climatic northern boundary of winter wheat in Liaoning province was studied systematically. The grey correlation analysis revealed that the accumulated temperature and precipitation before overwintering, the negative temperature during the overwintering, and the precipitation of May and June were the four key affecting factors. By analyzing the factors of the accumulated temperature before overwintering and negative accumulate ground temperature of tillering node level and evaluating the real climatic productivity, the result indicates: the northern boundary of winter wheat would be Benxi-Fushun-Faku-Zhangwu-Fuxin-Beipiao-Chaoyang (about 42.5°N). It will move 1-2 latitudes to north comparing with past boundary (along the Great Wall line). The result not only has important guiding significance to the northern boundary of planting winter wheat, but also has reference effect to reconstruction of historical climate by using crop planting boundary in historical periods.

Key words: grey correlation, Liaoning Province, the northern boundary of winter wheat

中图分类号: 

  • S162