中国包容性绿色效率时空格局与溢出效应分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.03.003

地理科学进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (3): 382-396.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.03.003

中国包容性绿色效率时空格局与溢出效应分析

赵林¹^,²(), 刘焱序³^,^*(), 曹乃刚¹, 吴殿廷³, 贾建琦¹

1.曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,山东日照 276826
2.日照市国土空间规划与生态建设重点实验室,山东日照 276826
3.北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875

收稿日期:2020-05-28 修回日期:2020-07-19 出版日期:2021-03-28 发布日期:2021-05-28
通讯作者: 刘焱序
作者简介:赵林(1988—),男,山东东平人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为经济地理。E-mail: zhaolin19880112@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41701117)

Spatiotemporal pattern and spillover effects of inclusive green efficiency in China

ZHAO Lin¹^,²(), LIU Yanxu³^,^*(), CAO Naigang¹, WU Dianting³, JIA Jianqi¹

1. School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China
2. Rizhao Key Laboratory of Territory Spatial Planning and Ecological Construction, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China
3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2020-05-28 Revised:2020-07-19 Online:2021-03-28 Published:2021-05-28
Contact: LIU Yanxu
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701117)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

包容性绿色发展旨在保障经济持续增长的同时促进社会公平和资源环境改善,是建设生态文明、保障和改善民生的必然选择。论文基于包容性绿色效率评价体系,采用考虑非期望产出的Super-EBM模型综合测度了中国省域包容性绿色效率,刻画了时空格局特征,最后采用空间杜宾模型识别了空间溢出效应与影响因素。研究表明：① 2000—2017年包容性绿色综合效率与规模效率呈缓慢波动上升趋势,纯技术效率呈先下降后上升的“V”型演变,综合效率的提升由规模效应驱动向技术驱动转变。② 包容性绿色效率空间格局由低水平均衡向高水平不均衡演进,高值区集中于“胡焕庸线”向东一侧,低值区以西北、西南和东北地区为主,综合效率与纯技术效率形成京津、长三角和珠三角3个高水平集聚区,规模效率的高水平区呈“H”型分布特征。③ 包容性绿色效率的同类型地区存在空间集聚特征,且空间集聚性不断增强,热点区呈向东北移动的趋势且逐渐稳定于长三角地区,次热点以京津、珠三角地区为主,西北、西南和东北基本为冷点区。④ 包容性绿色综合效率及其分解效率存在正向空间溢出效应,经济发展水平、产业结构、工业化、政府行政能力、财政分权、环境规制、科技创新及市场化对包容性绿色效率具有显著影响,其中政府行政能力、财政分权、环境规制、科技创新和市场化具有一定溢出效应。

关键词: 包容性绿色效率, 时空格局, 溢出效应, Super-EBM模型, 中国

Abstract:

Inclusive green development aims to ensure sustainable economic growth while promoting social equity and resource and environmental improvement. It is an inevitable choice for building ecological civilization and improving people's livelihood. This study constructed an evaluation system of inclusive green efficiency, and used the Super-Epsilon-Based Measure (EBM) model considering the undesirable outputs to comprehensively measure China's inclusive green efficiency. On this basis, spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of inclusive green efficiency. By using a spatial Durbin model, the spatial spillover effects and influencing factors were analyzed. The results show that: 1) From 2000 to 2017, China's comprehensive inclusive green efficiency and scale efficiency fluctuated slowly, and the pure technical efficiency showed a "V-shaped" trend. The improvement of comprehensive efficiency gradually changed from scale effect to technology driven. 2) The spatial pattern of inclusive green efficiency in China has evolved from low-level equilibrium to high-level imbalance. The high-value areas are concentrated to the east of the Hu Huanyong Line, while the low-value areas are mainly in the northwestern, southwestern, and northeastern areas. Comprehensive efficiency and pure technical efficiency form three high-value areas in Beijing-Tianjin, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta at the national level, and the high-value areas of scale efficiency show a "H" shape. 3) The same type of inclusive green efficiency shows the characteristics of spatial agglomeration, which is also continuously enhanced. The hotspots tend to move to the northeast. The hotspots are gradually stabilized in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the secondary hotspots are mainly in the Beijing-Tianjin and Pearl River Delta regions. The northwest, southwest, and northeast are basically cold spots. 4) The regression results of spatial Durbin model show that there is a positive spatial spillover effect of comprehensive inclusive green efficiency and its components. Economic development level, industrial structure, industrialization, government administrative ability, fiscal decentralization, environmental regulation, scientific and technological innovation, and marketization have significant influences on inclusive green efficiency, among which government administrative ability, fiscal decentralization, environmental regulation, scientific and technological innovation, and marketization have some spillover effects. Finally, some related policies, such as strengthening inter-regional exchanges and cooperation, accelerating the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, optimizing the government's fiscal expenditure structure, promoting the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and letting the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, were put forward based on the empirical analysis. This study provides a new perspective than the traditional assessment of economic efficiency, and the conclusions can provide some reference for China's ecological civilization construction and green transformation development.

Key words: inclusive green efficiency, spatiotemporal pattern, spillover effects, Super-EBM model, China

赵林, 刘焱序, 曹乃刚, 吴殿廷, 贾建琦. 中国包容性绿色效率时空格局与溢出效应分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(3): 382-396.

ZHAO Lin, LIU Yanxu, CAO Naigang, WU Dianting, JIA Jianqi. Spatiotemporal pattern and spillover effects of inclusive green efficiency in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(3): 382-396.

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指标类型	一级指标	二级指标
投入指标	人力投入	从业人员数(万人)
	资本投入	固定资产投资存量(亿元)
	资源投入	能源消费总量(万t标准煤)、用水总量(亿m³)
	技术投入	研究与试验发展人员全时当量(人·a),农用机械总动力(万kW)
产出指标	经济产出	地区生产总值(亿元)、地方财政收入(亿元)
	社会产出	城镇居民人均可支配收入/农村居民人均可支配收入(%)、城镇居民人均消费支出/农村居民人均消费支出(%)、失业率(%)
	环境产出	废水排放总量(万t)、二氧化硫排放量(万t),烟(粉)尘排放量(万t)、一般工业固体废物产生量(万t)

省区	综合效率/纯技术效率/规模效率		省区	综合效率/纯技术效率/规模效率
省区	2000年	2017年	省区	2000年	2017年
北京	0.247/1.021/0.242	1.048/1.065/0.984	湖北	0.229/0.430/0.532	0.514/0.557/0.922
天津	0.246/0.690/0.357	0.663/0.870/0.762	湖南	0.244/0.420/0.581	0.409/0.439/0.933
河北	0.197/0.435/0.454	0.427/0.462/0.925	广东	0.303/0.468/0.647	1.021/1.022/0.999
山西	0.230/0.493/0.466	0.501/0.618/0.810	广西	0.264/0.408/0.648	0.336/0.525/0.639
内蒙古	0.246/0.552/0.445	0.352/0.512/0.687	海南	0.232/1.025/0.227	0.550/1.010/0.544
辽宁	0.281/0.477/0.589	0.471/0.593/0.795	重庆	0.313/0.500/0.626	0.510/0.586/0.870
吉林	0.221/0.449/0.493	0.309/0.556/0.557	四川	0.168/0.362/0.464	0.500/0.524/0.955
黑龙江	0.276/0.448/0.616	0.241/0.457/0.527	贵州	0.215/0.425/0.506	0.413/0.504/0.820
上海	0.284/0.669/0.424	1.024/1.025/0.999	云南	0.252/0.444/0.568	0.336/0.460/0.732
江苏	0.248/0.498/0.497	1.006/1.011/0.995	陕西	0.199/0.387/0.514	0.394/0.504/0.782
浙江	0.218/0.504/0.431	0.785/1.004/0.782	甘肃	0.184/0.389/0.472	0.272/0.469/0.581
安徽	0.263/0.463/0.568	0.387/0.445/0.870	青海	0.140/1.055/0.133	0.329/1.007/0.326
福建	0.279/1.011/0.276	0.512/0.623/0.821	宁夏	0.143/1.004/0.142	0.348/0.764/0.456
江西	0.269/0.570/0.471	0.442/0.609/0.725	新疆	0.176/0.458/0.384	0.353/0.531/0.664
山东	0.247/0.427/0.578	0.655/0.680/0.963	均值	0.235/0.565/0.463	0.519/0.664/0.779
河南	0.248/0.469/0.529	0.464/0.491/0.944

变量	综合效率		纯技术效率		规模效率
变量	参数估计	P值	参数估计	P值	参数估计	P值
pgdp	-1.479^***	<0.001	-0.579	0.137	-1.258^***	<0.001
pgdp²	0.067^***	<0.001	0.031^*	0.060	0.054^***	<0.001
inds	0.007^***	<0.001	0.001	0.601	0.005^**	0.036
gov	0.002	0.124	0.001	0.569	-0.002	0.231
indu	0.158^***	0.003	-0.023	0.756	0.205^***	0.001
open	0.015	0.248	-0.016	0.194	0.013	0.321
fd	0.180^**	0.022	0.078	0.400	0.321^***	0.024
er	-0.002	0.672	-0.010	0.178	0.012	0.199
mar	0.004^***	<0.001	0.003^**	0.011	0.001	0.854
ti	0.003	0.806	0.009	0.625	0.031^*	0.056
w*pgdp	0.452	0.181	0.200	0.614	0.113	0.850
w*pgdp²	-0.025	0.103	-0.007	0.692	-0.007	0.796
w*inds	-0.003	0.265	-0.003	0.280	-0.003	0.321
w*gov	0.001	0.614	0.004^*	0.094	0.003	0.254
w*indu	-0.007	0.943	-0.190	0.230	-0.009	0.938
w*open	-0.006	0.851	0.001	0.984	0.001	0.977
w*fd	-0.053	0.573	0.310^*	0.062	-0.448^***	0.004
w*er	0.004	0.619	0.018	0.103	-0.023^***	0.005
w*mar	-0.001	0.581	0.002	0.196	-0.001	0.668
w*ti	0.029	0.169	0.009	0.685	0.063^**	0.050
λ/ρ	0.361^***	<0.001	0.180^***	0.004	0.219^**	0.001
R²	0.894		0.809		0.820
Log-likelihood	1011.452		788.700		724.402

变量	综合效率			纯技术效率			规模效率
变量	总效应	直接效应	间接效应	总效应	直接效应	间接效应	总效应	直接效应	间接效应
pgdp	-1.623^***	-1.496^***	-0.127	-0.470	-0.586	0.117	-1.461^**	-1.276^***	-0.185
pgdp²	0.066^***	0.067^***	-0.001	0.030^**	0.031^**	-0.001	0.059^**	0.054^***	0.005
inds	0.007^***	0.007^***	-0.000	-0.002	0.001	-0.003	0.002	0.005^**	-0.003
gov	0.004^*	0.002	0.002	0.006^***	0.001	0.005^***	0.001	-0.002	0.003
indu	0.241^**	0.165^***	0.076	-0.181	-0.025	-0.156	0.248^**	0.209^***	0.039
open	0.015	0.014	0.001	-0.019	-0.016	-0.002	0.018	0.013	0.005
fd	0.190	0.182^**	0.008	0.467^**	0.089	0.379^**	-0.162	0.307^**	-0.469^**
er	0.003	-0.002	0.005	0.010	-0.010	0.020^*	-0.014	0.010	-0.024^**
mar	0.004^*	0.003^***	0.001	0.006^***	0.003^***	0.003^*	-0.001	0.000	-0.001
ti	0.053^*	0.006	0.047	0.021	0.009	0.012	0.122^***	0.034^**	0.088^**

中国包容性绿色效率时空格局与溢出效应分析

Spatiotemporal pattern and spillover effects of inclusive green efficiency in China

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