秦巴山区村域稳定脱贫测度及返贫防控风险识别——以重庆市城口县为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.02.005

地理科学进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 232-244.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2021.02.005

秦巴山区村域稳定脱贫测度及返贫防控风险识别——以重庆市城口县为例

郭倩¹, 廖和平¹^,²^,^*(), 王子羿¹, 刘愿理¹, 李涛¹

1. 西南大学地理科学学院,重庆 400715
2. 西南大学精准扶贫与区域发展研究中心,重庆 400715

收稿日期:2020-03-24 修回日期:2020-07-01 出版日期:2021-02-28 发布日期:2021-04-28
通讯作者: 廖和平
作者简介:郭倩(1996一), 女,陕西西安人，硕士生，主要从事土地利用与国土规划、乡村贫困治理研究。E-mail: 18691367221@ 163.com
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(20XJCZH005)

Measurement of rural poverty alleviation sustainability and return-to-poverty risk identification in Qinling-Bashan Mountains:A case study of Chengkou County, Chongqing Municipality

GUO Qian¹, LIAO Heping¹^,²^,^*(), WANG Ziyi¹, LIU Yuanli¹, LI Tao¹

1. School of Geographical Science, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
2. Center for Targeted Poverty Alleviation and Regional Development Assessment, Chongqing 400715, China

Received:2020-03-24 Revised:2020-07-01 Online:2021-02-28 Published:2021-04-28
Contact: LIAO Heping
Supported by:
The Project of Humanities and Social Sci-ence Youth Fund of Ministry of Education, No(20XJCZH005)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

深度贫困地区农村实现稳定脱贫、建立返贫防控机制是后2020时代的现实要求,更是精准扶贫与乡村振兴承上启下的紧密衔接。以强度生态脆弱与集中连片特困复合地区重庆市城口县为研究区域,基于脱贫稳定性测度模型、障碍度模型和最小方差模型等方法对城口县60个行政村、1950个农户进行多维脱贫稳定性空间分异特征和返贫风险模式探究。研究发现：① 样本村脱贫稳定性等级分布总体呈现前端窄小、中部突出的“葫芦状”结构,各地区多维脱贫稳定性总体不高且存在空间异质性;② 城口县返贫风险可识别为双风险模式、三风险模式、四风险模式和五风险模式4种模式及各阻力因素多元整合主导的11种返贫风险类型,人力资本、发展机会等涉及农户可持续增收、动态抗风险能力及内生动力的要素逐渐成为现阶段返贫防控及减贫路径依赖的重点;③ 立足区域特征,把继续攻坚和稳定脱贫、防止返贫摆在同等重要位置上,因村施策提高群众抗风险能力,精准织密防止脱贫群体的返贫网。

关键词: 村域, 稳定脱贫, 返贫风险模式, 空间分异, 后2020时代, 秦巴山区

Abstract:

Achieving sustainable poverty alleviation and establishing a prevention and control mechanism for return-to-poverty in extreme poverty rural areas is a realistic requirement in the post-2020 era. It is also a key link between precision poverty alleviation and rural revitalization. Taking Chengkou County of Chongqing Municipality—an area of strong ecological fragility and concentrated continuous poverty—as the research area, and based on the poverty alleviation sustainability measurement model, obstacle degree model, and minimum variance model, this study explored the spatial differentiation of multidimensional poverty alleviation sustainability and the return-to-poverty risk models for 60 villages and 1950 farming households in the area. The study found that: 1) The sample villages' poverty alleviation sustainability distribution generally showed a "gourd-like" structure where the front end is narrow and the middle part protrudes. The multidimensional poverty alleviation sustainability in the area is generally low and of different degrees. 2) The return-to-poverty risk in Chengkou County can be divided into four models and 11 types, dominated by diversified integration of various resistance factors. Human capital, development opportunities, and other factors related to sustainable income growth, dynamic anti-risk capability, and endogenous drives of farmers have gradually become the focus of poverty reduction and control of return-to-poverty at this stage. 3) Local governments should give equal priority to alleviating poverty, improving the sustainability of poverty alleviation, and preventing return-to-poverty. At the same time, improve people's ability to resist risks and develop a network for preventing return-to-poverty of vulnerable groups with specific policy in each village.

Key words: village space, sustainable poverty alleviation, return-to-poverty risk model, spatial differentiation, post-2020 era, Qinling-Bashan Mountains

郭倩, 廖和平, 王子羿, 刘愿理, 李涛. 秦巴山区村域稳定脱贫测度及返贫防控风险识别——以重庆市城口县为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2021, 40(2): 232-244.

GUO Qian, LIAO Heping, WANG Ziyi, LIU Yuanli, LI Tao. Measurement of rural poverty alleviation sustainability and return-to-poverty risk identification in Qinling-Bashan Mountains:A case study of Chengkou County, Chongqing Municipality[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2021, 40(2): 232-244.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

脱贫稳定性多维测度指标体系"

维度	维度权重	代码	指标	指标阐释及赋值	指标性质	主观权重	客观权重	组合权重
自然资本	0.15	C₁	平均海拔	村海拔	-	0.26	0.27	0.27
		C₂	人均耕地数量	耕地面积/总人口(村)	+	0.25	0.26	0.26
		C₃	耕地质量	坡度大于25°耕地占比	-	0.25	0.23	0.23
		C₄	地质灾害易发性	参照蒋佩华^[45]的研究成果	-	0.24	0.24	0.24
经济条件	0.23	C₅	住房条件	2处及以上住房=4,钢混/砖混房=3,砖瓦或砖木房=2,土木房及没有自有住房=1	+	0.20	0.19	0.20
		C₆	增收情况	增收且可持续=3,增收但不可持续=2,未增收=1	+	0.18	0.19	0.19
		C₇	家庭人均年收入	家庭纯收入/家庭人口	+	0.28	0.30	0.29
		C₈	转移性收入占比	政府补贴、亲友补助等收入/总收入	-	0.15	0.14	0.14
		C₉	产业发展效果	帮扶效果明显=3,效果一般=2,没有效果/未帮扶=1	+	0.19	0.18	0.18
人力资本	0.23	C₁₀	劳动力比重	16~60周岁(除学生外)有劳动能力人数/家庭人口	+	0.24	0.24	0.24
		C₁₁	劳动力平均质量^[46]	劳动力成员质量总得分/劳动力人数(良好=4,慢病/三四级残疾=3,大病=2,一二级残疾/精神病=1)	+	0.26	0.27	0.26
		C₁₂	健康状况	健康人口/家庭总人口	+	0.22	0.20	0.21
		C₁₃	劳动力转移就业占比	劳动力转移就业人口/劳动力总人口	+	0.28	0.29	0.29
发展机会	0.21	C₁₄	政策性贷款支持/户	有且有明显帮助=3,有但帮助不明显=2,有但无帮助/无=1	+	0.17	0.16	0.17
		C₁₅	劳动技能培训/户	参加培训且有明显效果=3,参加培训但效果不明显=2,参加培训但无效果或未参加=1	+	0.20	0.21	0.21
		C₁₆	负债情况	无负债=3,负债1万元及以下=2,负债大于1万元=1	+	0.23	0.25	0.24
		C₁₇	交通便利程度	非常方便=3,方便=2,不方便=1	+	0.21	0.20	0.20
		C₁₈	教育条件	非常方便=3,方便=2,不方便=1	+	0.19	0.18	0.18
社会保障	0.18	C₁₉	看病就医条件	非常方便=3,方便=2,不方便=1	+	0.40	0.41	0.40
		C₂₀	医疗保险及救助	合作医疗=4,大病保险=3,大病或慢性病救助=2,其他保险=1	+	0.34	0.34	0.34
		C₂₁	养老保障	有养老金=2,无=1	+	0.26	0.25	0.26

表1

表2

图3

表3

表4

图4

图5

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维度	稳定	较稳定	一般稳定	较不稳定
自然资本	11.67	41.67	33.33	13.33
经济条件	13.33	35.00	36.67	15.00
人力资本	11.67	33.33	26.67	28.33
发展机会	21.67	33.33	30.00	15.00
社会保障	16.67	35.00	41.67	6.67
综合维度	10.00	30.00	28.33	31.67

返贫风险模式	村占比	自然资本主导返贫风险占比	经济条件主导返贫风险占比	人力资本主导返贫风险占比	发展机会主导返贫风险占比	社会保障主导返贫风险占比
单风险模式	0	0	0	0	0	0
双风险模式	5.00	0	0	100.00	66.67	33.33
三风险模式	21.67	23.08	46.15	100.00	76.92	53.85
四风险模式	45.00	48.15	74.07	100.00	96.30	81.48
五风险模式	28.33	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00
合计	100.00	55.00	71.67	100.00	91.67	78.33

返贫风险模式	返贫风险类型	地区
双风险模式	H-S型	岩湾村
	H-D型	红军村、金岩村
三风险模式	N-E-H型	金池村
	N-H-S型	大榜村、天星村
	E-H-D型	东红村、双龙村、龙泉村、长田村、白鹤村
	H-D-S型	仓房村、农民村、星光村、左岸村、红坪村
四风险模式	N-E-H-S型	平安村
	N-E-H-D型	茶坪村、平溪村、文峰村、熊竹村、长园村
	N-H-D-S型	大兴村、聚马村、骑龙村、胜利村、团结村、永红村、云燕村
	E-H-D-S型	复兴村、黄溪村、河鱼村、龙王村、麻柳村、中安村、中六村、密水村、棉沙村、三湾村、石兴村、松柏村、瓦房村、长湾村
五风险模式	N-E-H-D-S型	北坡村、东河村、方斗村、环流村、金龙村、排山村、齐心村、青山村、三河村、柿坪村、双丰村、双坪村、鲜花村、新胜村、星月村、竹园村、迎红村

秦巴山区村域稳定脱贫测度及返贫防控风险识别——以重庆市城口县为例

Measurement of rural poverty alleviation sustainability and return-to-poverty risk identification in Qinling-Bashan Mountains:A case study of Chengkou County, Chongqing Municipality

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