“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.11.001

地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (11): 1785-1797.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.11.001

• 研究论文 • 下一篇

“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

宋周莺¹^,²^,³(), 祝巧玲¹^,²^,³

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
2.中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101
3.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

收稿日期:2020-04-15 修回日期:2020-05-29 出版日期:2020-11-28 发布日期:2021-01-28
作者简介:宋周莺(1983—),女,浙江缙云人,博士,副研究员,硕士生导师,主要从事贸易与区域发展、信息化相关研究。E-mail:songzy@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41871120);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010102)

Development of trade between China’s provinces and Pakistan and influencing factors under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative

SONG Zhouying¹^,²^,³(), ZHU Qiaoling¹^,²^,³

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2020-04-15 Revised:2020-05-29 Online:2020-11-28 Published:2021-01-28
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871120);Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20010102)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。

关键词: “一带一路”, 中巴贸易, 空间格局, 随机前沿引力模型, 贸易潜力

Abstract:

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, and "unimpeded trade" is one of the priorities of cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. It is important to examine the spatio-temporal characteristics of international trade between China and Pakistan for promoting economic prosperity and regional cooperation along CPEC. This study examined the spatio-temporal characteristics of trade cooperation between China and Pakistan, and analyzed its influencing factors using a stochastic frontier gravity model. The findings of this research are as follows: First, the scale of China-Pakistan trade is small but growing fast; China has trade surplus that continues to increase, and Pakistan shows low status in the global trade network of China; in China-Pakistan trade, China mainly exports capital-intensive products such as machinery and electrical equipment, and imports textile raw materials, textile products and other primary products, and labor-intensive products. Second, significant spatial differences exist in the trade scale and commodity structure of provinces in China with Pakistan; notably, eastern coastal provinces in China have significant advantages in terms of trade scale with Pakistan, while western provinces, except Xinjiang, have limited trade with Pakistan. Third, most of China's provinces have undergone significant changes in the structure of trade commodities, among which provinces with diverse commodity structures, such as Xinjiang and Shandong, have relatively little change. Fourth, higher economic development level and larger market size of provinces in China significantly promote China-Pakistan trade; shipping distance shows negative impact on China-Pakistan trade; shared border provides good conditions for cross-border trade; the construction of railway and shipping ports has shown a significant promoting effect on trade. Fifth, great trade potential still exists between provinces in China and Pakistan, especially in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi provinces and autonomous regions.

Key words: Belt and Road Initiative, China-Pakistan trade cooperation, stochastic frontier gravity model, potential trade scale

宋周莺, 祝巧玲. “一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(11): 1785-1797.

SONG Zhouying, ZHU Qiaoling. Development of trade between China’s provinces and Pakistan and influencing factors under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(11): 1785-1797.

图/表 8

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

中巴贸易规模的主要影响因素"

	解释变量	变量含义	单位	数据来源	预期影响方向
核心变量	$PGD P ct$	表示t时期中国c省(区市)人均GDP,反映该省(区市)的经济发展程度和需求水平	美元	中国统计年鉴	+
	$PGD P p t$	表示t时期巴基斯坦人均GDP,反映其经济发展程度和需求水平	美元	世界银行	+
	$PO P ct$	表示t时期中国c省(区市)的人口规模,反映该省(区市)的市场规模	人	中国统计年鉴	+
	$PO P p t$	表示t时期巴基斯坦的人口规模,反映其市场规模	人	世界银行	+
	$Dis t c p$	表示c省(区市)和巴基斯坦间的运输距离,反映贸易运输的成本	km	freemaptools.com	-
	$Borde r c p$	表示c省(区市)和巴基斯坦是否有领土接壤,虚拟变量,反映两地进行口岸贸易的在地理条件上的可能性	—	标准地图服务系统	+
	$dPGD P p ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)和巴基斯坦人均GDP的差额,反映两地的人均收入水平和购买能力	美元	中国统计年鉴,世界银行	-
	$FD I ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)实际利用的外商直接投资额,反映外资引进对贸易额的影响	万美元	各省(区市)统计年鉴	+
	$FT D ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)的对外贸易依存度,反映了对外贸易在该省(区市)经济中的重要程度	—	中国统计年鉴	+
贸易非效率项	$Shi p ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)一级水运口岸个数,反映该省(区市)的贸易便利化水平	—	中国口岸年鉴	-
	$Ai r ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)一级航空口岸个数,反映该省(区市)的贸易便利化水平	—	中国口岸年鉴	-
	$Rai l ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)一级铁路口岸个数,反映该省(区市)的贸易便利化水平	—	中国口岸年鉴	-
	$Roa d ct$	表示t时期c省(区市)一级公路口岸个数,反映该省(区市)的贸易便利化水平	—	中国口岸年鉴	-
	$BR I t$	表示t时期“一带一路”倡议是否提出,虚拟变量,反映中巴区域一体化水平	—	中国政府网	-

表1

表2

表3

随机前沿引力模型估计结果"

		模型1		模型2
		系数	t统计量	系数	t统计量
随机前沿函数	常数项	-12.92	-0.58	-7.55	-0.34
	$lnPGD P ct$	5.49^***	3.34	6.48^***	4.31
	$lnPGD P p t$	-2.34^*	-1.82	-2.70^**	-2.12
	$lnPO P ct$	1.37^***	13.29	1.39^***	21.21
	$lnPO P p t$	1.44	0.49	1.02	0.34
	$lnDis t p c$	-1.23^**	-2.27	-1.45^***	-2.84
	$Borde r p c$	1.56^***	5.53	1.58^***	5.76
	$lndPGD P p ct$	-2.67^**	-2.06	-3.27^***	-2.67
	$lnFD I ct$	0.01	0.23	—	—
	$FT D ct$	0.36	1.36	—	—
贸易非效率函数	常数项	-0.46	-0.51	-0.15	-0.20
	$Shi p ct$	-0.09	-1.56	-0.08^*	-1.71
	$Ai r ct$	0.26	1.55	0.27^*	1.81
	$Rai l ct$	-0.29	-1.06	-0.26	-1.01
	$Roa d ct$	0.16^**	2.06	0.14^**	2.06
	$BR I t$	-0.12	-0.31	-0.03	-0.09
统计检验	$σ 2$	1.39^***	2.63	1.23^***	2.84
	γ	0.85^***	14.17	0.86^***	15.09
	对数似然值	-316.10		-317.04
	LR检验	33.52		47.92

表3

图5

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“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

Development of trade between China’s provinces and Pakistan and influencing factors under the background of the Belt and Road Initiative

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