地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (11): 1793-1801.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.11.014

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

昆明市太阳辐射变化特征及影响因子分析

何萍1, 崔梅艳1, 李矜霄2, 刘树华3,*()   

  1. 1. 云南省楚雄师范学院地理科学与旅游管理学院,云南 楚雄 675000
    2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球物理流体力学数字模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029
    3. 北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-29 修回日期:2019-02-15 出版日期:2019-11-28 发布日期:2019-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 刘树华
  • 作者简介:何萍(1965— ),女,硕士生导师,教授,主要从事气象、气候与自然地理综合研究。E-mail: heping@cxtc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41465001)

Characteristics and influencing factors of surface solar radiation variation in Kunming City

HE Ping1, CUI Meiyan1, LI Jinxiao2, LIU Shuhua3,*()   

  1. 1. The college of Geography and Tourism Management, Chuxiong Normal University, Chuxiong 675000, Yunnan, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029, China
    3. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
  • Received:2018-10-29 Revised:2019-02-15 Online:2019-11-28 Published:2019-11-28
  • Contact: LIU Shuhua
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No(41465001)

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摘要：

根据1993—2016年昆明市24 a太阳辐射及其他相关资料,采用回归分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析和灰色关联度等方法,分析昆明市地面太阳辐射变化特征,并对其影响因子进行了分析。结果表明,近24 a来昆明市地面接收年太阳辐射量在4620.21~6221.65 MJ/m 2之间变化,最大值出现在2016年,最小值出现在2008年,平均每年的太阳辐射为5598.06 MJ/m 2,且整体上呈现波动式上升趋势。昆明市干湿季分明,干季(11月—次年4月)地面得到的太阳辐射量较多,为2825.22 MJ/m 2,雨季(5—10月)较少,为2774.41 MJ/m 2;一年中地面接收太阳辐射量最多月份在4月,其值为604.75 MJ/m 2,最少的是12月,其值为361.01 MJ/m 2,相差243.74 MJ/m 2。地面接收的太阳辐射有一个突变点为2014年,但不明显。年小波分析表明,近24 a昆明市各年地面接收的太阳辐射量主周期为15 a;季节小波分析发现,干季比雨季振幅大,其主周期都为19 d。近24 a昆明市地面太阳辐射受自然和人为因子共同影响,其中自然因子对太阳辐射影响最大的是降水量,人为因子中对太阳辐射影响最大的是工业总产值,且自然因子的作用大于人为因子。

关键词: 太阳辐射, 变化特征, 影响因素, 昆明市

Abstract:

Based on the 24 years (1993-2016) meteorological data including solar radiation and other related variables, this study analyzed the characteristics of surface solar radiation variation in Kunming City, and examined its influencing factors by using the methods of regression analysis, Mann-Kendall (M-K) abrupt test, wavelet analysis, and grey correlation degree analysis. The results show that surface solar radiation varied between 4620.21 MJ/m 2 and 6221.65 MJ/m 2, the maximum occurred in 2016 and the minimum occurred in 2008, and the annual mean was 5598.06 MJ/m 2. Annual mean solar radiation showed a fluctuating rising trend. The dry and wet seasons are distinct in Kunming City, and the maximum surface solar radiation appeared in dry season (November to April of the following year at 2825.22 MJ/m 2), but the minimum appeared in rainy season (May to October, at 2774.41 MJ/m 2). Maximum monthly variation of surface solar radiation in Kunming City appeared in April (604.75 MJ/m 2), and the minimum appeared in December (361.01 MJ/m 2). The difference of surface solar radiation between April and December was 243.74 MJ/m 2. According to the M-K abrupt test, the point of abrupt change appeared in 2014, but it is statistically insignificant. On the one hand, annual wavelet analysis detected a 15-year primary period of surface solar radiation. On the other hand, using seasonal wavelet analysis of surface solar radiation, the amplitude of surface solar radiation in dry season was stronger than in rainy season, but the primary periods are both 19 days. Finally, through grey relational analysis, the 24-year surface solar radiation was influenced by both human and natural factors. Precipitation is an important natural factor, but gross industrial output value is an important human factor influencing the surface solar radiation variation in Kunming City. Compared to the human factor, natural factor is the main contributor of the surface solar radiation variation in Kunming City.

Key words: solar radiation, variation characteristics, influencing factors, Kunming City