“被高铁”现象的理性分析——以京沪高铁为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.04.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来,中国高铁步入快速建设期,而高铁建设的重要目的之一就是客货分流。高铁客运专线的建设大大地提升了客运能力,从而可以释放既有线路的运输能力于货物运输。但是高铁客运的票价也高于既有线路,同时由于普通列车车次的减少,使得居民出行可能要被迫选择票价更高的高铁,这种现象称作“被高铁”。本文对媒体关注的“被高铁”现象进行了理性分析,以京沪高铁沿线城市为例,根据2015年1月1日列车时刻表数据计算出的时间节省的货币成本与小时工资(时间价值)作比较,并结合高铁车次比重,计算了不同城市的居民“被高铁”的可能性。研究发现：①很多“城市对”之间都存在时间节省的货币成本高于小时工资的情况,“被高铁”现象较为普遍;②“被高铁”的可能性在50%左右;③各城市“被高铁”的程度有较大差异,京沪高铁沿线城市的“被高铁程度”整体呈现出“两头低,中段高,长三角相对较低”的特征。研究认为,虽然从目前来看,京沪高铁沿线城市的普通列车班次减少不明显,但如果进行较大幅度调整,很多低收入旅客出行时可能会被迫选择高铁,并将带来负面的社会影响。本文的理性分析可为列车班次的调整方案提供参考。

关键词: “被高铁”, 时间价值, 小时工资, 京沪高铁

Abstract:

Chinese high-speed railway entered a rapid development phase in recent years. One of the most important purposes of the construction of high-speed railway is to realize passenger and freight transport distributary. The construction of passenger train-dedicated high-speed railway has increased passenger transport capacity, thus releasing traditional train transport capacity for the usage of freight transport. But high-speed railway has higher ticket prices than traditional trains and the number of traditional trains in some cities has decreased, so people maybe have to pay much higher fare to take high-speed trains when traveling by railway. This phenomenon is called “involuntary high-speed railway travel”. In this article, we analyze this phenomenon based on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway by comparing the monetary cost computed using the 2015 train timetable with hourly wage, and then estimate the possibility of “involuntary high-speed railway travel” of each city. The result shows that: (1) “involuntary high-speed railway travel” exists in many cities as monetary cost exceeds hourly wage in these cities; (2) the possibility of “involuntary high-speed railway travel” is around 50%; (3) the extent of “involuntary high-speed railway travel” varies in different cities—low at the endpoints, high in the middle, and relatively low in the Yangtze River Delta along the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway lines. Although traditional trains had not reduced too much along the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway lines, many low-income passengers may be forced to choose the high-speed railway once the number of traditional trains significantly declines, which may cause negative social impacts. This study can provide some references for the adjustment of the frequency of trains.

Key words: involuntary high-speed railway travel, monetary value of time, hourly wage, Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway

张凯烊, 孟晓晨. “被高铁”现象的理性分析——以京沪高铁为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(4): 496-504.

Kaiyang ZHANG, Xiaochen MENG. “Involuntary high-speed railway travel”: A case study based on the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(4): 496-504.

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城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值
廊坊	31.47	济宁	13.95	滁州	18.42	苏州	21.86
天津	32.03	滕州	16.62	南京	21.44	昆山	18.72
沧州	28.65	枣庄	16.61	镇江	21.80	上海	20.47
德州	30.31	徐州	38.38	丹阳	19.75
济南	24.88	宿州	22.42	常州	20.69
泰安	30.33	蚌埠	22.55	无锡	22.08

城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值
北京	30.31	济宁	23.46	滁州	18.48	苏州	24.23
廊坊	23.08	滕州	28.79	南京	21.07	昆山	20.24
天津	27.99	枣庄	27.35	镇江	25.52	上海	24.51
沧州	29.17	徐州	31.12	丹阳	21.09
济南	20.55	宿州	30.90	常州	23.72
泰安	27.63	蚌埠	32.52	无锡	25.09

城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值	城市	时间价值
北京	19.75	泰安	34.68	蚌埠	34.03	苏州	40.16
廊坊	20.52	济宁	30.72	滁州	32.37	昆山	35.97
天津	21.04	滕州	31.61	南京	54.78	上海	30.48
沧州	21.32	枣庄	33.53	镇江	3.89
德州	21.09	徐州	34.02	常州	28.08
济南	23.14	宿州	29.81	无锡	49.73

城市	小时工资/元	城市	小时工资/元	城市	小时工资/元	城市	小时工资/元
北京	51.38	泰安	24.08	蚌埠	22.92	无锡	34.26
廊坊	27.36	济宁	26.71	滁州	25.20	苏州	34.71
天津	37.48	滕州	20.90	南京	36.38	昆山	32.20
沧州	24.16	枣庄	23.48	镇江	28.69	上海	48.30
德州	20.27	徐州	26.54	丹阳	27.30
济南	29.41	宿州	21.90	常州	33.59

城市	被高铁数/个	城市	被高铁数/个	城市	被高铁数/个	城市	被高铁数/个
北京	0	苏州	6	镇江	13	泰安	18
上海	0	南京	8	滁州	14	宿州	18
天津	1	常州	8	丹阳	14	滕州	19
廊坊	2	无锡	8	徐州	16	德州	19
济南	4	沧州	11	枣庄	16
昆山	5	济宁	12	蚌埠	18