• 研究论文 •

### 中国省域能源消耗碳排放安全评价

1. 河南大学环境与规划学院/黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心,河南 开封 475004
• 出版日期:2016-04-27 发布日期:2016-04-27
• 通讯作者: 秦耀辰 E-mail:rongpeijun@126.com;qinyc@henu.edu.cn
• 作者简介:

作者简介：荣培君(1986-),女,河南开封人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为区域可持续发展,E-mail: rongpeijun@126.com

• 基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2012CB955804);国家自然科学基金项目(41171438,41201602);河南省哲学社科规划办项目(2014CJJ065)

### Energy-related carbon emission security at the provincial level in China

Peijun RONG(), Quntao YANG, Yaochen QIN*(), Xu LI, Tianning ZHANG, Shuaishuai ZHANG

1. College of Environment and Planning/Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
• Online:2016-04-27 Published:2016-04-27
• Contact: Yaochen QIN E-mail:rongpeijun@126.com;qinyc@henu.edu.cn
• Supported by:
National Key Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2012CB955804;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171438, No.41201602;Philosophy and Social Planning Project of Henan Province, No.2014CJJ065

Abstract:

Facing the great challenge of climate change, carbon emission security-an important part of ecological security-has become a prominent issue. This study used the 1996-2012 statistics of 30 provinces (except Tibet) of the Chinese mainland to analyze the spatial and temporal differences of energy-related carbon emission security, with the aim to provide some guidance for regional carbon emission reduction strategy and sustainable development. The assessment indicator system of energy consumption-related carbon emission security was based on the pressure-response model, which consists of three main aspects: economic, social, and environmental. Then carbon emission security situation was projected for 2013 to 2020 by using the GM (1,1) method. The results show that: from 1996 to 2012, energy consumption-related carbon emission security of China was at a critical level (0.45-0.65) and showed a downward trend since 2000. The response system played an increasingly more important role in the security state of energy-related carbon emissions; carbon emission security of various provinces is very different, its spatial pattern underwent some changes, and the provinces of low security level shifted southward; most provinces face more pressure while the situation of the response system has improved; disparity of regional CO2 emission security gradually narrowed, provinces of high pressure and low response reduced substantially; energy intensity, per capita disposable income of urban residents, proportion of coal, per capita carbon emission, proportion of the secondary industry have great influence on carbon emission security in the majority of provinces. The forecasting results show that carbon emission security situation is not optimistic. Most provinces will be in the critical and unsafe state with regard to carbon emission.